Cords and Gremlins

Last week Saturday morning I was looking for a charging cord for an item I occasionally use. I knew the cord was kept in a drawer of a China cabinet we have in the dining room, with several other cords. I think there are gremlins that take the cords when I am searching and put it back for the wife to find. A

A pesky gremlin is the only way for me to explain why I could not find the cord, even though I pulled out all of the cords in the black organizer box and sorted through them, and looked in nearby smaller boxes. It certainly could not be my eyesight.

Varied Charging Cords

This has happened regarding varied items over the years and I have come to realize that the gremlins are wife friendly, but seem to like to pick on me. I am not sure if they are the same as the "ghosts" that my wife claims to here in the walls and the chimney. One time, I heard the noises in the wall and chimney, and even went outside to see if I could see squirrels or other critter types on the roof, but to no avail. They could have jumped off and hid, which is not hard to do with all our plants around the base of the house. Or, they could be between the siding and the insulation, or they could be "ghosts". Who knows.

Of course, there are items I set aside for safe keeping, and cannot recall the safe place. One such item was a bag containing stuff for our rain barrel, in the warmer months it is the hookup for winter, and in the winter the hookup for warmer weather. Or, the time, my wife made some corn hole toss bags, and I stuck them in the basement up between the first floor joists. A nice out of the way spot, if only I could have remembered. I now know to look up when searching for an item. 

All I know when I was looking for that charging cord I looked and looked, and looked again, and to no avail. I then asked the wife if she knew what happened to it, and she said she did not move it. She knew what the cord looked like, grey with more of a cloth exterior than vinyl or rubber. She came over to the drawer, and looked inside and pulled it out. It was so quick, I figured she had brought it with her and I, jokingly, said as much, which really got her goat. She did not take it as jokingly.

This narrows to a few options of what happened First, I did not look sufficiently well; second, that the wife brought it over and placed it in the drawer to pull out; and third, there are gremlins that moved it when I look, but put it back when she looks. I am going with the cords and gremlin theory. 

Too Much Salt

It was in November, almost 36 years ago when the wife and I traveled to Italy for our honeymoon. Our first four or so days were spent in the Eternal City, Rome. We visited the Vatican on at least two different days. On one occasion we were in the Vatican Museums, and had the opportunity to visit the Sistine Chapel. We had a tour guide for the museums and the Sistine Chapel. The Sistine Chapel is known for its Michelangelo ceiling frescoes (1508-1512) which had just completed a 10 year restoration. They were then to clean and restore the large wall fresco (1533-~1536), also by the master Michelangelo, titled the "Last Judgement". This large fresco sits behind the altar.

The Last Judgement is famous for its depiction of the second coming of Christ and the depiction of 300 souls, some tormented, some not. When we visited the Sistine Chapel art historians were aghast at the vibrancy of colors the restoration exposed. They claimed that Michelangelo never used such vibrant colors on the ceiling frescoes. It was quite the controversy, as hundred of years of candle wax, and human activity, had coated the great work and dulled the painting, leaving many to think that such colors were not apart of the original work, but done by the restorers. They seemed to want the candle wax and soot back, or at least some of it. Why do people think that in the 1th century everything had to be dark? It was part of the renaissance, after all. Overtime, that controversy has died down, and most have come to realize that the early 16th century masters had in fact used such vibrant colors. The Last Judgement, is mainly blue and skin tones due to the sky and the naked 300 persons portrayed. As the work gets closer to the floor it becomes darker, representative of hell. 

The Last Judgement Fresco
credit: Francisco Anzola
Source: Smarthistory.org

Fresco painting is a process where water-based pigments are applied directly onto wet lime plaster and as the plaster dries the pigments, by chemical reaction are bound to the plaster. It is intricate and exacting work with the plaster and timing being important. In his book Michelangelo and the Pope's Ceiling Ross King goes into the difficulties experienced in painting the ceiling by Michelangelo and his assistants. Ross also goes into the sourcing of pigments for the ceiling. For example, a monastery in Florence was known for its pigments, and King says "Their colors--their blues in particular--were the best and most sought after in Florence." (p66) Fresco creation is a difficult art form, and perhaps someday I will reread the King book and blog about this now rare art form. I have to say, I am not sure the world has seen again a genius like Michelangelo. His variety of forms is impressive painting, sculpture, frescoes, and architecture (he completed the design for the St Peter's Dome). 

This great work of art, within the Sistine Chapel, however, is now under attack by perspiration. The National Catholic Reporter had this to say:

"The lactic acid produced through perspiration binds very easily with the calcium present on the surface of the fresco," Fabio Morresi, head of the Vatican Museums' scientific research laboratory, told the National Catholic Reporter during a press visit to the Sistine Chapel Feb. 28. "That reaction forms a salt, calcium lactate, which creates a thin whitish layer on the surface. Over time, that layer mutes the colors and softens the contrasts of 'The Last Judgment.' "

The ceiling and other frescoes are cleaned during the night, which visitors do not see, using lifts, but The Last Judgement requires special scaffolding due to its location with the altar. 

Those 1990 art critics may be happy, but most wish to see the fresco as it was intended, and the nuance and contrast of colors can make a difference in how it is viewed. More people are entering the chapel than ever before. In 2024, for example, even before the 2025 Holy Year, the chapel had 6 million visitors, up from 1.5 million ten years earlier. Further, 2024 saw an average temperature in Rome being an amazing 4.5 degrees (F) higher than the average of 1991 to 2020. People come in hotter than before and their are more visitors. The church does not wish to be seen limiting visitors to one of the world's most important works of art, and that requires it to undertake more maintenance costs.

Pope Francis (non-posed photo) in Sistine Chapel
Contemplating The Last Judgement Fresco
Photo taken Christmas Day, 2014
National Geographic cover Aug 2015

The Last Judgement is being cleaned for the first time since 1994, This cleaning process, what the Vatican refers to as extraordinary maintenance, is not as extensive as the earlier restoration which removed centuries of soot and grime, this is removing that layer by removing the salt that adheres to the face of the fresco. The process is rather simple, dipping Japanese Vatican chief curator, Barbara Jatta refers to it like removing a cataract. The cleaning exposes more of the details of the great work of art. I suspect that is not a job I would want, as, if my wife is correct, I tend to be overzealous and would wipe away the fresco. The 1990's restoration removed the cloths that put in place to cover genital areas, and take it back to the original nudes Michelangelo painted. The cloths, or drapery, were put on after he died. 

Tourists at Vatican Museum Gallery of Maps
Nov 1990, photo by author

The restoration over 30 years ago countered the effects of much of the drapery installation of the Counter-reformation, but today a different challenge remains according the news reports: "today's intervention reflects a different challenge: safeguarding the fresco in an era of climate change and mass tourism." 

To help safeguard the priceless frescoes, climate within the Sistine Chapel is highly controlled. The temperature is kept at 71 to 75 degrees F, with a relative humidity of 55-60%. Most important, CO2 levels are at a level below that of a typical office building even though 700 to 800 persons will gather into the chapel at one point in time. Yet, as much as the Sistine is climate controlled, it can only do so much with perspiring people.

Google Map air photo of St Peter's Basilica and Sistine Chapel

The Vatican has a virtual tour of the Sistine Chapel which you can view here. My wife and I were fortunate to view the remarkable artwork in the Sistine Chapel in person. I recall most of our attention drawn to the then recently completed ceiling fresco restoration. At that point in time, since it was freshly cleaned, and the number of visitors was less, and the climate not has warm the colors were perhaps as vibrant when the ceiling was opened for viewing. 

What I learned from this is that too much salt is not just bad for the body, and our ecosystem, but also for the frescoes in the Sistine Chapel. Climate change is having a negative effect on the natural habitat (number of birds is way down) and cultural treasures. 

Different Games

Two different types of athletic contests have occurred this month. The games have two markedly different speeds of play and flow. One dominates the news cycle and its national organization makes sure to dominate at the sports news cycle in almost every month of the year. The other sport is well known, but does not dominate the news cycle as the other. The first event was football with the Super Bowl played on Feb 8 in San Francisco, between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. The second involved two Olympic hockey games between the US and Canada, for both men and women. The games are treated somewhat differently in news, but also in how they move.

2026 Olympic US Women Hockey Team

If you collapsed an NFL game, which takes over three hours and closer to thee and a half, to just the time played, such amount actual play time is said to be between 11 to 18 minutes; that would fit within the standard 20 minute hockey period. NFL games seem to plunder along, while hocky is fast moving, with line changes often occurring during play. NFL games, with so much time between plays, is well suited to having a beer during the game. You can sip, or get up and get a beer without missing much if any action. In a hockey game you may not be as fortunate.

Good friends Laila Edwards and Caroline Harvey (UW Player) 

                                  both earned gold medals and all-star honors at the 2026 Olympics

I know of people who turned the Super Bowl off at half time because they found it, well, boring. The score was 9-0 Seattle, three field goals. It was a two score game at that point, and while defenses dominated many people found the game boring. The NFL is perhaps its own worst enemy. It has changed the rules to make play more favorable to the offense. Many years ago, they moved the hash marks closer to the middle of the field, they altered rules to favor the quarterback, and have made rules for blocking much more favorable to the offensive player. When I played football you could not use your hands, and we were told to essentially hold onto our jerseys with our fingers. A flailing hand would get the attention of a zebra and a penalty for holding, even if you did not hold. Today, it is common for a lineman to push off with their fists or hands, and one could probably find a hold on every other play. That is why today the length of a lineman's arm is important--no T-Rexes on the O-line.

Caroline Harvey was MVP of the Women's Hocky

People have been conditioned, by the media and even the NFL to find low scoring games boring. Roger Goodell probably put out a bulletin at half time to make sure the game got more exciting. The second half saw a combined 33 points scored, with Seattle winning 29 to 13. Except for a few long passes by New England at garbage time, the game really was probably not as close as the indicated by the score. 

Missed wide open shot by a Canadian player
and the guy with the quote

Both the women and men gold medal games were won by the US over Canada, 2-1, with both teams tied at 1-1 after three periods, they went to overtime with three on three play. People seemed excited about the results. Perhaps influenced by the US beating archrival Canada in each game, but also by how exciting the games were. Like the Super Bowl, they were defensive battles, but in hocky a defensive battle seems to be thought of as good, where in the NFL it is not. 

Great goalie play, this puck was kept out of the net

Shots on goal is one example of how a game is played, and in the women's contest, the US goalie had 30 saves on 31 shots. It was a closely matched contest as the Canadian goalie had 31 saves on 33 shots. For the men, it was a different story, leading one Canadian player to claim, regardless of score, that he will let people judge who was really the better team. The US goalie was probably the best player in the game as he had 41 saves on 42 shots. The Canadian goalie had 26 saves on 28 shots. The offensive players for Canada were the best the NHL has to offer. The US, however, had the better goalie. The US team, however, had 93 seconds, due to penalties, when they were playing with three to the Canadian five players. Canada did not score with that two man advantage. The final score is what matters, not shots on goal. The last time the US men won Olympic gold was in 1980, on the same day as gold was won this year, February 22. Earlier that year, they beat the best team in the world, the Soviet Union, 4 to 3. In that contest, the Soviets had 39 (US 36 saves) shots on goal, while the US had a total of 19 shots on goal (Soviet goalies 15 saves). Complaints about the current OT rule of playing three on three (with a goalie), well, it is the same for both teams. 

Here is the net size Canada wants to shoot at

The US women had a generally easy path to the championship and their is little contest that the two premier programs for female hockey are the Canada and the US. Each of the two gold medal contestants in the men's division had prior overtime games in the medal rounds, showing that other men's teams are chomping at their skates.

A fun fact is that the MVP of the women's tournament was Caroline Harvey, who plays defense for the University of Wisconsin. The coach of the University of Wisconsin Women's team is Mark Johnson who was the MVP in 1980 for the Miracle on Ice team. One person commented that all of the Canadian and US Women's team members played college hockey in the US. The UW is a power house in female hockey, having won 8 NCAA National Championships since 2006, the last just under a year ago. For the 2026 Winter Olympics, 12 current and former University of Wisconsin–Madison (UW) women's hockey players are competing. This includes 6 players on Team USA, 5 on Team Canada, and 1 on Team Czechia. The Women Badgers had four current players on the US roster, and 2 alumni. 

Some analysts have said that the Canada men's team was without their captain, and would have won if he had played. It is like Badger fans always coming up with complaints about a loss, and  a bunch of could've if this was different.  Others point to the fact that the US seems to now be developing better younger hocky players than Canada. This was shown particularly in the women's contest. The wins may now galvanize more young athletes to the sport. What it does do, is intensify the rivalry even more between Canada and the US. As for football, the NFL has done its best to make sure games have a great deal of points, meaning, that low scoring games are now thought as dreadful, when such a low scoring game in hockey is thought of as great play, leading to a great game. Two different games with two different intents.

Curlinggate

Curling is an Olympic sport, and one that, being on a sheet of ice, is quite popular in Canada. Canada has won, in the three events (men, women, and mixed) 11 Olympic medals since since the sport was reintroduced to the games in 1998 (Wikipedia). (Curling had a 74 year hiatus from the winter games, before being reintroduced 1998.) They have not won an Olympic gold medal since 2014, however, when they earned gold in both the men and women events. That means they must be quite hungry for a gold medal. Canada won men's gold in three consecutive Olympics: 2006, 2010 and 2014. Canada is to curling what the Soviet Union was to hockey from 1964 to just before the Soviets loss to the US in the Olympics in 1980. Sweden has eight medals in this time frame, and won the gold in the 2022 games in the Men's division. Canada is big into curling, and so it is interesting that our northern neighbor has instigated Curlinggate by double touching the granite stone. 

I often think of curlers as being rather polite to each other, even in competition. I am not sure how I got that image, perhaps since it is an event where they are close to each other on the same sheet, but not bashing the opponents head in. Or, the curler I know is such a gentleman that I could not see him reacting the way the Canadian third did to the Swedish allegation. That is why I took some interest in a dustup that occurred between Sweden and Canada in the men's match at the Olympics less than a week ago.  A Swede said that the Canadian third touched the stone again after it was released, a double touch is against the rules. This less than polite Canadian unleashed a series of F-bombs against the Swede. He then tried to paint the Swedes as the guilty party. Does not say much about Canadian nice. That lack of niceness was reiterated in a BBC report.

The BBC reports that what the Canadian men's third and the woman skip did makes it a "sad day" for curling. The BBC had this to say: While the curlers have shown their anger over the situation during matches, fans of the sport and Canadians have questioned whether the team acted in the spirit of curling. To quote the BBC: "In a country well known for its 'niceness', the cheating row has stung for some. The BBC asked tourists and locals in Montreal what they made of it. 'It's a sad day for Canadian sport,' said Tim Gray, from Alberta. 'Integrity in the sport is important, even if you have to call it on yourself.'" Other news outlets, LA Times as one, say Curlinggate has destroyed the trust for a sport which has typically operated on a culture of trust and self-regulation.

Canadian Men's Curler, Marc Kennedy, who was
said by Swedes to Double touch
Image: Tiziana Fabi /AFP via Getty Images

This got me wondering what that gentleman curler acquaintance of mine thought. He was born and raised in Canada, but has lived in the US for much of his adult life. He has been an Olympic coach of the US Women's Curling team (2010) and during his career a two-time US men's champion and two-time world bronze medalist. When asked about the situation he made two cogent points. First, that if the issue of the double touch was raised it likely had occurred. Such that it made me think no one would bring up the double touch if it was not true. Second, he intimated that such double touch seems to be somewhat common, as he said other Canadian teams have done this in the past. This makes me wonder if they are coached (wink, wink) that way?  Delivery of the rock is crucial in curling. You try to get it in the house or knock other rocks out of the house. The sheet is swept ahead of the rock after it is delivered to form a layer of water to move the rock faster, or to alter its direction. Actually, according to the BBC the physics behind how and why the stone moves is really not well understood. 

Curling goes way back. According to World Curling "The first written evidence appeared in Latin, when in 1540, John McQuhin, a notary in Paisley, Scotland, recorded in his protocol book a challenge between John Sclater, a monk in Paisley Abbey and Gavin Hamilton, a representative of the Abbot." 

Canadian Woman team skip, was hit with a double touch
Image: Fatima Shbair/AP Photo/picture alliance

I curled one day, many years ago, and never could get my knees to cooperate, so I declined any further involvement. It seems like a somewhat silly sport until you try it and it is more difficult than one would have thought. I am not sure how well I delivered the rock, that piece of granite with a handle attached, much less judging how much to sweep. 

With the complaint. the Olympics have now decided, since the infamous brush up (pun intended) at the Canadian-Sweden match, to have two judges at the delivery end. Now, showing that perhaps my source is correct regarding Canada, the Canadian women's skip had a delivery stone pulled due to the same issue the men allegedly did, touching the stone twice. Following that on Sunday, the British team's third had a stone pulled for the same reason. My source's comments (see paragraph three) came before it was made public that the Canadian women had a delivery disqualified. Hence, this could be the way our northern neighbors are taught how to cheat at this sport, with perhaps difficulty in noticing what is occurring on the delivery. The fact that two incidents have occurred since the additional referee was added makes me think it is engrained in these curlers, and has been practiced that way. Otherwise why would you risk disqualification of a stone by the double touch? It may be a difficult habit to break. The extra touch is used to add or reduce speed. Keen eyes, it seems are required to pick this out, and hopefully they are better at it than NFL referee's trying to determine what is or is not a catch, or interference on a pass play. I wonder if curling will go to the replay booth to help determine the proper call. Curlinggate. Curling's version of the NFL's Deflategate. In 2014-2015, the sport was rocked by new bristles on brushes which were able to alter the trajectory of the stone in a greater degree, this became known as Broomgate, or Brushgate. And, for all the gates, whether brooms, deflate, or curling, we have Watergate to thank.

The Canadian who started the controversy, denies the double touched, even when a video from a Swedish network seemed to implicate him as touching the stone twice. He may not know he even does it, that is how ingrained it has become. The Canadians now claim the Swedes were illegally filming the match. The recalcitrant Canadian believes the Swedes were filming to catch a curler in the act of the double touch. He calls it a premeditated plan to catch the illegal touches, and he claims they have filmed other teams too. If so, the Swedes were waiting for the right moment to make the call and release the video. Does curling now have an illegal video being taken to prove illegal activity? 

Science may have trouble explaining how a curling stone moves, but it has figured out the ability to get lift in ski jumping. Male ski jumpers apparently thought to inject their male organ with hyaluronic acid to get more girth and hence to get more lift on the jump. More lift equals more distance. The injections led to the additional regulations right before the Olympics. In the meantime, it seems other Olympic sports are taking heed. An Austrian ski jumper was disqualified because his ski boot was 4mm too long. A US woman ski jumper was disqualified because her skis were too long. It seems that ski jumpers were to enthralled with the hyaluronic acid issue to make sure their equipment met the specs. Curlinggate only leads to removal of the stone double touched, not a disqualification. 

And, if once was not enough, and perhaps showing how this is ingrained in the Canadians, it came out Tuesday that on Monday Marc Kennedy of Canada was called out by a Swedish journalist who took a photo of him double touching against Czechia. Responding to the reporter when confronted, Kennedy said there was not a single intentional double touch. The key word being intentional. Whether by design, or simply by habit, it is still not legal. Except the Canadians apparently do not see it that way. The Swedish photographer also apparently has photos of the Canadian men's skip double touching. I am not sure where the officials were, perhaps looking the other way. For some reason, I don't think this will go away, and it is a stain on a once gentile sport. Canadian press would not allow the journalist to speak to the skip. It seems as if they will have to go to video replay.

Swedish Journalist photo of
reputed illegal touch in Canada 
against Czechia

What athletes are willing to do to try to find that edge to get higher, stronger and faster seems to lead to controversy and then more regulations. People will be people in always looking for that slight edge over their competition. Ski jumpers are willing to inject themselves, and then we have the Canadian and British curlers doing the double touches. If Canada were to win a medal it could well be clouded by their double touching, and make the curling crowd wonder if the double touches influenced early match outcomes. One mate involved in curling in Canada, subscribes to a school of journalism popularized by the current US President (all news is good news) and said the added press may be good for the sport. 

Curlinggate gets more juicy by the day and Canada is getting more press on this issue than it may have desired, on the other hand they kept it going by their whining about the issue. It is also why I decided I have to get this published, otherwise it would take a life of its own, as Canada simply can't keep their fingers off the stone. As Curlinggate dominates the Olympic press, curlers need to ask themselves what impact this will have on the sport.

Rodent Forecasters

It was a typical early February day last week Monday morning. Cloud cover obscured the sun as it came over the horizon. At this time, the city of Sun Prairie pulled out of hibernation a groundhog. The purpose of the ground hog was for it to make its annual forecast for when winter will end. Jimmy did not see his shadow, which legend portends a shorter winter season. Several years ago Jimmy, who has been at this since 1969 (albeit different animals), experienced 15 minutes of fame when the rodent bit the Mayor's ear. This fame was sandwiched between  the fame the city received when Christopher Hovel last played football at Sun Prairie High and the notorious July 2018 gas pipe explosion that took out part of the downtown. Jimmy may even have had more press that year, due to the ear bite, than Punxsutawney Phil, the oldest rodent winter weather predictor in the nation, which was started in 1887. Every year it seems Phil gets the press. Phil had a different prediction than Jimmy in the binary selection process.

Not sure who this guy is, or where he got the 30% for Phil
Oh, what AI can do!

At the same time, there seems to be a contest of who is the most accurate predictor of an early spring, as compared to six more weeks of Winter. The web site for Jimmy does not give his percent success rate, but reads: "Jimmy has an extremely high accuracy rate on his annual predictions, making him an outstanding leader in meteorological circles." So, I wondered, what metrics are used to determine if spring arrived early. Many negativists say it really does not matter, since by the calendar spring arrives in about six weeks anyway. This year, calendar spring will arrive on March 20. Some years it is March 21. This year it is six weeks and four days past Groundhog Day. Perhaps sometime I will delve into why it is Feb 2, and not a couple days later putting it right at the halfway point through the calendar winter. Meteorologically, winter is said to be Dec, Jan and Feb. Hence, March, April and May make spring.

Phil's recent scorecard, which got me wondering how this was calculated

Regardless of calendar or meteorological springs, as people we generally look to certain signs of spring. Flowers, snow has melted, temperatures warming. It is hard to define, but we seem to know it when it comes early. Same thing for winter, which sometimes starts, as this past year, right after Thanksgiving. In 2019 we had several inches of snow at the end of October (with other early storms)  followed by very cold weather for many weeks; it then warmed before Christmas and the snow had mostly melted. The ground froze, crops remained in the field and the sewer district had months of sludge that had not yet been worked into the ground. The district had to find former farm storage tanks to store it until spring. Mother nature sure knows how to throw curve balls. As a shoulder months, March and April can be very unpredictable. Although seldom is weather consistent with you would expect. A few years ago camping at Cunard Lake I talked a man who was there camping, and he had come up for the opening of fishing season on May 1, only to find that the lakes were all frozen and covered with several inches of snow. Here it was less than two months later and I was swimming in that lake. The latest known frost date in Boulder Junction is June 30, which probably explains why their claim to fame is muskies and not groundhogs. I would think ice and snow on lakes counts as a late spring. Does frost on the last day of June count as a late spring? The day my youngest son was born (Apr 29) we went from unseasonable warm, the wife who was very pregnant that year would say hot, to having seven inches of snow on his date of birth. Luckily, the warm pavement and ground allowed much to melt quickly. Without metrics, how does on acknowledge if the rodent is correct?

Jimmy about to pounce on Mayor's ear
Apparently, it needs a muzzle

My wife thought I was being too analytic in attempting to figure out the metrics used for the rodent handlers to say if they were correct or not. Her point was this is all in jest.  But, when they start giving out stats, it is not just jest. I get it, they are trying to prove who has the best prognosticating rodent. I look at my desire for a sophisticated metric to be very Germanic, as who else but the Germans would desire detailed calculus of how the groundhogs perform? Germans demand precision, just like in that former car commercial. 

NOAA top ten, see link in paragraph below for the whole ranking

As items of rodent prognostication showed up on my Facebook page I realized two main points. First, there are many more rodent prognosticators present than I thought, and, two, that the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) has rated the 18 groundhogs and one turtle. To meet their criteria, they had to be doing this at least 20 years as of 2 Feb 2024. What they found was rather striking, with success varying from 85% to 30%, with Phil and one other woodchuck at the low end for groundhogs. The outlier was the poor turtle who had a lowly success rate of 20%. Jimmy came in fifth at 65%. The problem is that they do not say what metric they used to calculate. Was it based on how much a location was above or below average, or did it use some level of standard deviation from the norm? After all, there is variability in weather. As Josh and Jase (the Brits who visited Michigan this past January) have said, in the Midwest all you have to do is turnaround and the weather may have changed. It must have been a down week at NOAA for them to do find the weather and do the calculations on groundhog forecast proficiency. Perhaps Donald Trump saw this and it led to his agency cuts. Yet, with such a low rate of success, should Phil be the determining factor for early verse non-early spring?  Most news outlets seem to think so. Phil predicted a long winter, while Jimmy has predicted an early spring. Now, weather can vary by region in the US, so who is to say Phil is correct for Wisconsin, much less California?

The 18 groundhogs are in 8 different states, with Pennsylvania leading the way with four, followed by NY with three. Unfortunately, a Friendly Illinois Brethren rodent tied with Jimmy for fifth place. Communities desire some claim to fame, and sad to say Sun Prairie had the chance at other aspects, but chose a groundhog. A bit quirky, and I guess it beats Fitchburg's Recycling Capital of Wisconsin, which no longer applies since most of Dane County all recycle the same stuff (although McFarland, through a local club here recycles stretchable plastic, with bins at the library). Actually, Pennsylvania and New York make sense for Groundhog Day did not start with Bill Murray, but with German, and more specifically Dutch Germans in the 17th and 18th centuries. In the old country a hedgehog was used. It is an outgrowth of Candlemas where, according to lore, if an animal like a badger or hedgehog, saw its shadow there would be another winter. Lacking hedgehogs, and probably finding badgers a bit unruly, the Pennsylvania Dutch-Germans used the groundhog, with the first observance by Phil in 1887. For those not aware, Wisconsin, the Badger State, did not get the moniker from actual badgers, but from lead miners in Southwest Wisconsin who were referred to as Badgers because they lived in caves in the 1820's to 1830's as temporary shelter, and of course dug for lead. Actually, this whole thing of groundhog prognosticators involving German and Dutch-Germans is rather hard to believe for such  heritages are not known for frivolity. Germans, I am sure would be pleased to have measuring metrics as it goes against the whole mirthfulness of the occasion. Being measurable it brings precision and math to an event that is otherwise very questionable, particularly in Punxsutawney. Looking up the stereotype of Germans as precision oriented, I found even the business school in Munich recognizes such. 

This has me thinking there is a market for a prognosticator on the flip side, as we move from autumn to winter. at around Halloween time, for perhaps a chipmunk or a opossum to let us know when winter really will begin. The opossum may well play dead and hence fail to give a forecast when most needed. Is a sign of spring when chipmunks come out from their hibernation behind my rock walls?

I had thoughts of developing a metric, but thought it could get out of control, so now I am willing to let NOAA, although not sure of their metric, to be the judge over what groundhog is the best forecaster. My wife can now rest easier knowing that a higher authority than me has already developed a metric to rate the accuracy of the rodent forecasters. 

Dream

In April 2009 a frumpy middle aged woman appeared on the television show, Britain's Got Talent. After some odd antics that left the judges shaking their heads in disgust, she said she was going to sing "I Dreamed a Dream" from Les Miserables. The audience found it incredulous that such a frumpy woman could sing this rather difficult song. Then she started singing, and, within a few seconds the attitude in the auditorium changed. Susan Boyle was wanting to fulfill the dream her mother had for her, to be a professional singer. Last week the wife had Alexa playing some music and after a few songs, I heard Susan Boyle singing "I Dreamed a Dream." The lyrics are rather appropriate to our world today where dreams are being upended for some by aggressive tactics. 

Follow along as Susan Boyle sings "I Dreamed a Dream" at this link (starting at the 1:44 mark). 

I dreamed a dream in time gone by
When hope was high
And life worth living
I dreamed that love would never die
I dreamed that God would be forgiving

And I was young and unafraid
And dreams were made and used and wasted
There was no ransom to be paid
No song unsung, no wine untasted

But the tigers come at night
With their voices soft as thunder
As they tear your hope apart
As they turn your dream to shame

And still I dream he'll come to me
That we will live our life together
But there are dreams that cannot be
And there are storms we cannot weather

I had a dream my life would be
So different from this hell I'm living
So different now from what it seemed
Now life has killed the dream
I dreamed

Aspirations are part of our human condition. Those that are on the lower ends of the socio-economic ladder in particular face difficulties. During his last public address on Easter Sunday, 2025, the day before he died, Pope Francis added to his many comments on migrants (for example, see 10 Feb 2025 letter to US Bishops): "...how much contempt is stirred up at times towards the vulnerable, the marginalized, and migrants! On this day, I would like all of us to hope anew and to revive our trust in others, including those who are different than ourselves, or who come from distant lands, bringing unfamiliar customs, ways of life and ideas! For all of us are children of God!"

This nation was built on the premise of basic rights as first identified in the Declaration of Independence (250 years ago): "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."

One program that is now essential in the nation is social security, as one example. With the nation now  continuing to experience historic low birth rates and with births near equaling deaths. Growth in population has to come from migrants. And, the nation needs growth, as social security and other programs depended on a standard population pyramid, which is now a rectangle.

Susan Boyle, that then frumpy middle-aged Brit, inverted the audience's opinion of her. She would get some fame and would release varied music titles. That is not the case for many of those affected by governmental actions.  Has the nation cut out the ability of people, whether legal or not, to realize their dreams?

Hoosiers

Forty years ago the movie Hoosiers came out. Starring Gene Hackman, it is thought of one of the better sports films in the United States. It is loosely based on  a 1954 Milan, Indiana High School basketball team who won the state championship. It is a story of grit and determination for the few members of the team. A new Hoosier film could be made today but not about the basketball team. Fifty years the Hoosier basketball team went undefeated and won the National Championship under coach Bob Knight, the last team to do so. The Indiana football team did the same feat this year.

The Play of the Game, 4th and 5, 12 yards from end zone,
QB draw for a TD

Congratulations to the Indiana Hoosier Football team. Under second year head coach Curt Cignetti the team won the National Championship, often referred to as the Natty. Why they have to create references like the Natty, I don't know but I while go with it since it is easy to type. If three years ago someone would have predicted that Indiana, the football bowl subdivision team with the most losses for that division, in history, I think everyone would have laughed at them. Indiana has been the doormat of the Big Ten for almost, well, forever. 

In another great sports movie, "Miracle", when selecting the 1980 US Olympic Hockey team, they have the committee complaining that they had no say in the selection for the team, and that some great players were left not selected. The coach, Herb Brooks, played by Kurt Russell, responded he was not looking for great players, but the right players. That is what Cignetti has done, taking two and maybe three star recruits and building them to a team where the chemistry worked. Cignetti built a team with the right players for his system. 

Curt Cignetti

For many years, the Big Ten needed a team like Indiana to make teams like Northwestern, Illinois, and (dare I say) Wisconsin look good. Before this season, Indiana had 528 wins to 719 losses. They were the first D1 team to reach 700 losses over their history. In 2022, the Hoosiers were 4-8 overall and 2-7 in the Big Ten. In 2023 it they were even worse, 3-9 overall and 1-8 in the Big Ten, good for last place in the East division and the worst record for the whole Big Ten.

At the end of the 2023 season they hired Cignetti away from James Madison. Cignetti became famous for a now viral statement at his introductory press conference when he said, "It's pretty simple, I win. Google me." He certainly does as in his first year his team went 8-1 in the Big Ten with the only loss to Ohio State (who would become National Champions) and they lost to Notre Dame in the playoffs. By any standards, that is a remarkable turn around.

Clever of Google, when searching Curt Cignetti (see circled area)

In its 16-0 run, it had five wins over teams that made or were in the playoffs (two against Oregon one regular season and one playoffs), none of those victories came at home. They could well be one of the best teams of all time. Its victory over Miami came at Miami's home field. Miami may have won at the line of scrimmage with several tackles for loss, but they lost the turnover battle, and the Hoosier block punt for a touchdown well takes out some of the tackles for loss. 

Of course, Paul, ESPN mouth piece for the Southeast Conference (SEC) Finebaum, has dissed Indiana and its coach. Yahoo Sports for example reported this snotty comment by the SEC mouthpiece: “'It will be a cute story, and it will get some attention on Tuesday morning map, but it really won’t get that much,' Finebaum stated on The Matt Barrie Show." He is not alone, former Alabama coach, Nick Saban said that unless they are paid no player from the south would want to play in the north. This is a dig at both the north and the Name, Image and Likeness deals for players. Others simply say, that the playing field is now level since the north can do what SEC teams have been doing for years, paying players.  Quite frankly, if I were a player in the north, why would I want to even go through Alabama? Finebaum and others have claimed the Indiana victory was luck. That is degrading to a team that has worked through the whole season. 

Heck, even this year, five SEC teams made the playoffs. Only one advanced to the semi-final, losing to Miami, who lost to Indiana. The SEC Commissioner said they should have had seven of their 16 teams in the Natty. The SEC and Paul are proud of the five teams that made the tournament. They went 4 and 10 in bowl games this season. Two of those wins came against another SEC team, one against second tier Tulane and the other against Michigan, whose coach had just been fired. Indiana played SEC powerhouse Alabama who lost to Indiana 38-3. Showing disrespect to other teams, four loss Alabama was, in the final rankings, ranked ninth. Alabama does not even have to show up to make the tournament or get ranked.

I have figured out why people are so enamored with the SEC. They play lower competition in non-conference games, four in 2025 (to move to 3 in 2026), where they generally play patsies. Hence, when they play each other many of the teams are ranked for beating lower level competition. When one loses to the other, they remained ranked, because they played a good team. What the ranking people do is to place a priority on the blueblood SEC teams, not realizing that, particularly with NIL, the stock market motto applies, past performance does not guarantee future results. But like stocks, they play up past results. The Big Ten teams played nine conference and three non-conference games.

Indiana had the SEC card with a generally weak nonconference schedule, but many teams are scheduled are made years in advance. Remember, the team was 3-9 overall in 2023. For some reason, this causes lack of respect to Indiana, but not to the blue-blood SEC teams. Indiana has one very prominent alumnus, Mark Cuban who is said to be worth $6 to 9.6 billion. He is said to be a major funder of NIL for Indiana. 

Even with Mark Cuban helping their NIL bank, all but one talking head on ESPN, picked their opponent to win. Pat McAfee who lives in Indiana (played for the Colts) was the only one to pick Indiana in each of their three playoff games. Indiana is the only team who had a first round bye to win their first game. The ESPN (which is also a mouthpiece for the SEC) talking heads had 2 to 1 in favor of Alabama (who lost to Indiana 38-3); 5 to 1 against Oregon (56-22); and 3 to 1 in favor of Miami (who lost 27-21). It really makes one suspect of the talking heads and how they value program prestige over reality.

Indiana got the last laugh. They chose a coach who knows personnel and preaches the fundamentals of football. That is why a team with so few supposed five and four star recruits won. It reminds me of a comment my brother Steve, a long time high school coach who viewed a number of Wisconsin practices, said about Barry Alvarez, that he coached and emphasized fundamentals. Many teams in the NFL and many colleges forget about fundamentals. It is why the Packers lose games with poor tackling and poor angles, and penalties, it is why the Bears had so many drops, and a missed route, in the NFL divisional game. 

Fernando Mendoza, the QB for Indiana plays with smarts. And he found Cal (was going to attend Yale, but got called by California), and then Indiana after 130 schools told him no. He failed to get a walk-on at Miami, a school his parents attended and where his mother played on the tennis team, and his dad was a rower on their National Championship Crew team. The University is only a couple miles from where he grew up. Mendoza attempts to avoid turnovers, unlike Caleb Williams. He has been criticized as a "game manager" nor worthy of a pick in the NFL draft, much less a first round pick. This same thing was said about Sam Darnold when he was with the Vikings last season, and he now leads NFC #1 seed Seattle to the Super Bowl  (a feat Jordan Love has yet to even get close to).  There is a general consensus that his fourth and five QB draw for a twelve yard touchdown was a masterpiece, even if Fernando looks like a baby giraffe running away from a lion. Fernando made about $2.6 million in NIL including winning the Natty. The opposing QB, Carson Beck, made $4-6 million, depending how incentives are calculated. I saw last Thursday that overall Miami spent almost $19 million on NIL for the season compared to about $5.2 to 5.7 million for Indiana.

L: Carson Beck, Lower R, Fernando Mendoza

Fernando Mendoza is the wholesome All-American guy most every parent (I can't every, because I heard of someone who it seems would not want have wanted a daughter to date him.) wants their daughter to date, and Carson Beck is the guy every daughter wants to date--the bad boy. At the end of the game, shortly after the game sealing interception he threw, Carson ran off the field lacking sufficient sportsmanship to shake hands and congratulate his opponents. He had the temerity to say they would have won if had not thrown the interception. Well, he threw the interception. He is even worse than Ben Johnson. Although he may be better than his running back Mark Fletcher who congratulated Mendoza, but later (or before) tried to punch an Indiana player. He apparently was reacting to a comment made by the Indiana player about his father who died the previous year. Miami played dirty and was given the benefit of the doubt by the referees, who seemed to favor Miami. Maybe they tried to fix the game, but were unable to do so.

It is being said, and I tend to agree, that the run by Indiana for the football National Championship is the greatest and most improbable story for college football. I tend to agree with them. It is the first 16 and 0 run since Yale in 1894. Heck, even the favored SEC teams, and Miami had losses. So, there Paul Finebaum. There is a new champion in Hoosierville, and it is the once lowly football team.