Drive Belt

A few weeks ago the now seemingly persistent rainy weather had provided a few day break. Even though we had a couple inches of rain a few days before, the soil of two garden plots was sufficiently dry to rototill up where plants had been harvested and pulled. I was doing the garden in Sun Prairie, where potatoes, eggplant, beans, tomatoes and a few other crops had been pulled up, I was about 1/3 of the way through when, the drive belt on the Troy-Bilt Pony rototiller broke.  Many years ago, perhaps about twenty or more, I had replaced the same drive belt. 

Year built--1989

Quite frankly, it is probably easier getting into Fort Knox, than to find the right drive belt for a 35 year old machine. I took the belt home with me and stopped at the hardware store. The guy looked up the number on the belt Troy-Bilt 9201, and said it was an odd size, at 23.5". I then went to the internet and found that one site claimed it was an odd dimension of 23 5/16" and others had 24. I then called Troy-Bilt and they said it was some fraction. Is it measured inside or outside diameter?

I then called two dealers that sell Troy-Bilt (the dealer from which it was purchased is out of business) and they suggested I get the part number. One tried to find the parts manual online, but could not find it. The following week on my next trip to Sun Prairie, I find the owner manual and luckily with it was the part catalog. I find the part number by reference to the diagram. Why there is a number on the belt and a separate and different part number, I do not know. I think an engineer, desirous of making things as difficult to follow, wrote the parts catalog. Armed with this information, I again called one of the two dealers, and now they wanted the serial number of the machine. Luckily I had found the serial number the prior week, but one digit was not discernable. I provide the information I have on the serial number, and missing digit was not required. So, all of this to find out they cannot even get the drive belt. The machine is dated 1989, so I figure it was about 33 or 34 years old, which is not too old for such machinery in my mind. I wanted to get an original manufacturer part, as I thought it would probably have the best fit. That was not going to be. The parts guy suggested going to Farm and Fleet. 

Model Number, was of no use

Armed with belt 9201 and the part number from the catalog I went to F&F and they looked up the part number and gave me a belt from a secondary manufacturer. I am not sure if it is the right size or not. I did put in on the tiller, but the ground was too wet to rototill, and with current rains I will probably not get it rototilled this fall.  I am not sure if the tines will turn under load of ripping up soil. When I think about it, it is quite a load the tiller has for doing what it needs to do.

One on-line belt, the cost at the store was much higher
maybe a different belt manufacturer.

Maybe I can get my brother-in-law to bring down his tiller that goes behind a large garden tractor off a rear PTO. That would make quick work, but it may take more effort to get the tiller on and off than to do the Pony, provided it works right with the new drive belt. One never knows when parts go out of stock. Hopefully, the drive belt I purchased and installed is the correct one. 

The Ramp

Last week Tuesday I made my weekly trip to Stoughton for book club. As I arrived, I saw some "tweens" riding in the parking lot on their bikes. I suppose the age range ran from about 10 to 13, and consisted of both boys and girls. Being about 6:15 pm, dark was starting to set in. I went in the building, and was about to head to the room when I heard some thumping. I went back to the door and saw the ramp, near the light of the outdoor on building fixture placed it near the entrance to the building.

The "tweens" were taking turns riding their bike up the small black ramp and then allowing the wheels to hit the pavement on the other side. This was the thump, thump, thump I had heard at somewhat regular intervals. I was rather amused watching them from the door. the boys tended to go much faster over the ramp, and the girls much slower. One girl was going so slow, I thought she would never get over the ramp. It caused a back up in the line. It also brought back memories. 

Evel K about to hit the land ramp, his take off ramp
to the left. I now know why my jump failed--
I did not have a landing ramp.
Source: Google Images, Sports Illustrated

When I was about that age, some of my siblings and friends would gather up varied lumber pieces and build a ramp on the downslope of our circular driveway. Evel Knievel was a popular stunt performer and showman, at the time, and he used a motorcycle to jump over varied things. I suppose we were channeling our inner Evel Knievel when we decided to place old pedal cars and tractors after the ramp we had constructed. I decided that I would go down the hill and over the ramp first, confident in my ability to clear the pedal cars and make a smooth landing. 

Going down the hill, I recall going up the ramp, and nothing else until I woke up as my dad was carrying me into the doctors office. I figured I did not make it over the cars. At least my bike was not heavily damaged. I recall it being my gold Schwinn American, a two-speed bike with chrome fenders. My twin brother, showing the difference in view of the two of us, opted for a Schwinn Sting-Ray with the banana seat. He has always been flashier in his tastes than I. Maybe I was presaging the later nickname some of my siblings gave me--grandma. 

Did that event cause me to become more cautious in life? If it did it did not have a real long-lasting effect--because, as I have been told by the wife, I am still somewhat injury prone. Jumping over the ramp, I have to say, was not the last dumb decision I made. Being older, a dumb decision today seem to have a greater effect on the body. 

As for the kids outside that door, when the next member of the book club was arriving, I heard one of the boys say "Hi, Grandma."  It was her grandson, and I found out he had just bought a new bike. He had out grown his old one and had been using his mother's bike, but she put a quick end to his use of her bike. Maybe she him go over a ramp. I cannot really blame her, as I doubt bikes are as well made today as was my Schwinn American. When the woman's sister-in-law arrived for book club she asked if Calvin had said hi to her, and she said yes, and then commented how nice he is still at the age he would acknowledge and adult. 

What this made me think of his how over 50 years later kids still do some of the same things. They could have been at home playing on their cellphones (yes, they have cellphones in Stoughton), or watching television, or here is a novel idea, even doing homework. But on this uneventful evening here they were riding bikes over a ramp. I hope next time they bring a bigger ramp and put pedal cars after the ramp to jump over. 

Creative Destruction

The transition to electric is creating a dynamic called creative destruction. As new technology advances certain industries have to adapt or change. In this, some jobs are lost and new ones created. Think of the photo-film industry, or the more basic camera industry where Smartphones are replacing cameras. Another example is there is no longer coal delivered to homes for heating. Creative destruction is also present in the automotive industry. It takes many fewer parts to manufacture an electric car engine than a gasoline engine. No catalytic converters to be stolen either. The auto strike is not just about wages, but the sense the union has that fewer jobs will be required in the future with the move to electric vehicles. Ford claims their new $1 billion battery plant, on which they have currently suspended construction, is being held hostage by the UAW.  In the meantime, Biden, who has been touting electric vehicles, visited the picket line for 15 minutes, spoke for one minute before heading to a fundraiser in California. 

The "big" three in the US, Ford, GM and Stellantis, have significant headwinds in competition with the union ask. The union, among many other things, seeks a 40% pay increase, but a 32 hour work week (essentially a 75% pay increase). Other head winds include the US publics continued support of purchasing non-union made vehicles. More than half the vehicles built in the US are foreign brands that are made in non-unionized factories. The Honda, Toyota, Subaru, Kia, etc. buyers are all buying non-American worker union assembled vehicles. For example, in Massachusetts over 70% of vehicles sold are foreign brands, California, the most populous state in the Union, is fourth at almost 65%. Non-union jobs at the plants generally result in lower wages, more temporary workers, and more profit than the three unionized brands in the US. 

Auto workers on strike

Of the ten states that purchase the highest percent of non-union assembled vehicles, all but one was a "blue" state, and of ten with the highest percent of union assembled vehicles were all "red" states. Apparently, there is a lack of support for the Biden American worker union agenda, at least the UAW. The American fascination with foreign vehicles is hurting the American union worker more than the bigwigs at the three companies.

Besides higher wages, lower profit margins, and lack of US union assembled vehicles being purchased, the union demands also come at a time of transition, or that creative destruction process. More so than at any time in the past, auto manufacturers need to invest in research and development to best accommodate the move away from gasoline engines. The transition to electric, and even perhaps hydrogen (or even another unknown fuel source) demands different ways of thinking and developing product. More money paid to labor means less funding available for research and development. With all these headwinds, can it be concluded that the US auto manufacturers are on a shoe string? Another head wind also comes from the Biden Administration in their proposed 58 mpg average gas mileage standard for 2032. It has been estimated that the big 3 will owe a whopping $10.6 billion in penalties a year, provided they are still in business, with $6.5 billion from GM. To put this in perspective, the total penalties paid TO DATE for not achieving past and current in place average mpg is $1.5 billion. When I was growing up with the oil crisis in 1979, many people talked about how the auto companies could make cars with 60 mpg or higher. That was a false narrative. One may get that with a hybrid, but if a gasoline engine could power a standard sized auto at that mpg, I don't think a manufacturer would hesitate to have put it on the market over the pasts two generations.

Electric vehicles face problems. A planned photo-op went awry when a Biden appointee was in an electric vehicle and her staff rode ahead in their gas powered cars and sat at a charging station, to reserve it for her when she arrived. Before her arrival, a couple showed up who needed the charger for their electric vehicle and her staff refused to let them charge their car. Law enforcement eventually was called in. Partially, this shows the unavailability of charging stations. In August, a Canadian man traveling to Chicago had to abandon his electric truck due to lack of charging stations. He completed the trip in a rented gas powered truck. It takes a lot longer to charge a vehicle than to fill it with gas, and coupled with generally much shorter range, electric cars are good for the normal commute, but not for vacation and road trips. I don't think an electric car could make it to Minneapolis on one charge from Madison. Further, it is said, the electric grid in most housing areas lacks the wire and power capacity for many homes to charge a vehicle at the same time. we love electricity, but do not like the high voltage power lines required to provide the electricity. An electric car is a viable option as a commuter car, but don't expect a long road trip. As usual, the American public, and perhaps the government, want it both ways.

Another measure of desiring both ways, is the batteries required to power all of this stuff, but not the mining to provide the minerals and resources at least in the US. The Biden Admin made a deal with the Congo for mining of some of the minerals, apparently not caring about the lack of environmental standards and the resulting pollution, much less the child labor that is used. It is apparently acceptable for the US to outsource mining (and oil wells), with little regard for the pollution and people. Apparently out of sight out of mind. The nation is externalizing the negative impacts of industrialization. The US gets the benefit and the Third World or developing countries get the negative side effects. If the nation had to put up with the negative side effects of industrialization, perhaps people would be more conservation minded.

People have responded not necessarily by buying an electric only car, but a purchasing a hybrid. The hybrid allows the long range desired on a gas engine, but to save some emissions when in city use. Hybrid cars themselves use something like 24 rare, or near rare, earth minerals. In desiring how "green" an item is, should not its overall footprint on the earth's resources be taken into account? 

Yet, for batteries, could help be on the way with battery power? Technology is ever changing. University of Central Florida scientists, following a few hurricanes, noticed how the typical lithium ion batteries can more easily catch fire after saltwater intrusion. Gas car fires go out quickly as that is the way gas burns, but lithium battery fires go on and on, posing greater risk, and a great deal more water and effort to extinguish. The UCF battery actually uses naturally occurring metal ions found in saltwater--sodium, potassium calcium and magnesium, and in the process create what they call a dual-cation battery. The brilliant application is not necessarily the use of saltwater, but the methods to avoid corrosion, as reported on the CFU website: 

To solve problems with instability, dendrite growth and corrosion, the researchers engineered a forest-like 3D zinc-copper anode containing a thin zinc-oxide protective layer on top.

The novel, nano-engineered surface, which looks like a birds-eye-view of a forest, allows the researchers to precisely control electrochemical reactions, thereby increasing the battery’s stability and quick charging ability.

Quick charging could take minutes rather than hours. One news article claimed about 3 minutes. If that short, it is less time to walk into a gas station while traveling to use the bathroom. It is amazing what technologies are being developed. This may seem like a win for the US manufacturers, but the university will likely auction off the rights to the highest bidder, and with lack of money it plays right into the hands of foreign auto makers--none of whom have a union shop. 

Yet to calm the negative impact of creative destruction, and keeping an eye on gas prices, Biden supports oil production--from overseas. NBC News reported on 10/8/23 that Saudi Arabia and Israel were nearing a normalization of relations, and with that the Saudi's promised Biden that they would increase their oil output. Iran opposes any Arab country from normalizing relations with Israel (Zionist state in their words) and that may have been a reason for the Hamas attack on Israel which occurred Oct 7. 

Technology may be moving fast, but I am guessing that the use of gas powered vehicles will be with us for a long time. Apparently Joe Biden, in wanting the Saudis to increase production, is too. Range, charging infrastructure, and just the lack of adequate power in the grid of a typical suburban or urban street means that not all people can have an electric vehicle and charge it at the same time. Further what will happen on the hot, sticky summer nights when air conditioners are running? We already have our thermostat controlled by Alliant during hot days, so they can turn up the thermostat to limit power during peak use. Then there is the issue of the amount of rare earth minerals often required in batteries, which take a great deal of input for little gain. Although catalytic converters are stolen  for their platinum, palladium, and rhodium. 

Creative destruction is not new, it has occurred over the course of history. There are a good number of old crafts that used to be at the local level that exist no more. My Reiner great grandfather was a shoemaker. He adjusted to creative destruction of the industrial revolution by opening a grocery store and tavern in Chicago. For generations, from the 17th to at least 18th century, my Hovel ancestors weaved linen from flax, that is now done by machine. When my grandfather Hovel had an auction on his move from his Iowa farm to his farm in Sun Prairie in Dec. 1929, one item was a sulky--a horse drawn plow, on which the human sits to control the horses. This would have been replaced by a plow pulled by a tractor. Sulkies are pretty much obsolete, but for a museum. Of course, we could all afford to be more conservation minded. That would be truly creative destruction.

Source on UCF Battery--https://www.ucf.edu/news/new-ucf-developed-battery-could-prevent-post-hurricane-electric-vehicle-fires/#:~:text=To%20solve%20problems,quick%20charging%20ability.

Reserve

This past week I read an article on how low crude oil supplies are at a major supplier in the United States. While gas prices had been increasing for over the first half of the month, a slight decline has since occurred. Talking heads who are to know much about the oil industry and supplies were talking about crude oil reaching $100 a barrel. As gas prices have subsided the talking heads are now saying that is unlikely. 

Gasoline demand declines at the conclusion of the summer travel season, and with weakening economies in China and Europe, further decline in prices are occurring. 

In 2022 President Biden sold, in what is termed an "emergency" sale of 180 million barrels of oil from the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), in order to bring down gas prices with the approaching mid-term elections. His administration said he would resupply the reserve at a lower price point, but this has failed to occur due to the geo-political intrusion of Saudi Arabia and Russia announcing production cuts, which partially led to the increased oil prices. Maybe he will finally get his opportunity to resupply the SPR. The Energy Department indicates that the current total capacity of the SPR is 714 million barrels, although as of Sept 1, 2023 it contained only 349 million barrels, so it is about 48% full. The US currently uses about 20.1 barrels of oil a day; the 1 Sept level then means that there is just about a 17 day supply in case of an emergency. The 2022 emergency sale was more than all the combined sales (emergency, mandated, and modernization sales) that occurred from the first sale in 1985, to present time, and this even includes a mandated sale in 2022. The 2022 Biden sale was 16.6 million barrels more than all of the prior sales (which includes the 2022 mandated sale) combined. Sales have occurred since 1985. Most of the prior emergency sales were to offset the supply interruptions usually caused by Hurricanes. 

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Sites, US Dept of Energy

Just as the US strategic reserve is located in the south, Louisiana and Texas, so is much of our oil refining capacity. While 30 states have oil refineries, the US Gulf Coast states have the most. Four of the top five US refineries are in Texas, the other in Louisiana. Of the top ten refineries, only two (Indiana and California) are not a Gulf Coast state. There is some irony in the fact that two of the states frequently hit by hurricanes hold the SPR, and most of the nation's refining capacity.

Further, the move to electric is causing oil industries to think about any new investment, as they wonder whether or not the investment would not pay for itself over the long term. Remember how high gas prices in the nation were before the great recession? (I think gas prices helped cause the great recession as people moved further and further from work to get cheaper housing, thinking gas would not go up much then it went up a great deal, and they could not afford gas, food and mortgage.)

2019-2022 SPR Sales, US Dept of Energy

There are reserves for more than oil. The Federal government has (had) reserves of personal protective equipment, and ventilators. One problem, found during COVID in the spring of 2020, was the ventilators were so old that the new technicians did not know how to get them working. Some PPE expired. The government also maintains supplies of some vaccines, antibiotics, IV equipment, and some other drugs. The Department of Defense maintains stockpiles of minerals and non-mineral items from the common iodine and talc to niobium, a rare earth mineral (used in fighter jet engines). They also stock pile ammunition, but the pile must not be that large since is has pretty much been expelled in the ammunition sent to Ukraine. Russia must be in some dire situation too as they have turned to North Korea for some assistance. 

Stockpiles of goods are not unlike a reserve fund that businesses, governments and people should have (also called savings). It can get you through in a tight time frame. The Madison Metropolitan Sewerage District has a minimum cash reserve as a percent of its overall budget. The cash reserves are used to cover operating expenses between receipt of quarterly sewer charge payments, and to offset unexpected costs. 

Gas Prices Winter 2022 to Present

The world still runs on gasoline and petroleum. Although, I wonder if the coming stringent gas mileage standards will have an effect. The electric vehicle market is, according to a reporter with Yahoo Finance, softening even as more manufacturers enter the market. Electric vehicles have a number of obstacles to overcome, cost, charging stations, time to charge, not to mention battery operation in cold temperatures. Heck, the AGM battery in my car has not fully charged in over a year to allow the stop-start to operate. (With all the electronics in new cars the battery is good for only about five years now, at least from what I read several months back.) 

The SPR will be in existence for some time to come. With the SPR at less than half its authorized capacity, I am not sure much wiggle room remains without putting the nation at risk in case a emergency event occurred where petroleum is need to offset disruptions from catastrophic events from nature or humans. Just like we have cash reserves in government, and in our private homes, so too should the government have a reserve of petroleum, and other valued resources. The main thing is to use the reserve wisely.