Boomer Blame, part 2

I was born in 1957, a year for the largest number of births in the United States until it was surpassed by a minor amount in 2007.  I am part of the baby boom generation.  People have been giving credit or blame to baby boomers for 40 years, ever since the first part of the generation created havoc in the 1960's on the societal norms of that era.  What most probably did not know at the young age of the boomers, was that there was more than social chaos, but that the baby boomers would unleash a spending tsunami.  The spending of the baby boom generation would have implications not only for the nation, but the world economy.  My prior post dealt with demographics and this post will deal with the link between demographics and what many see as economic health.

Economic health is a relative factor, and for much of human history economic growth puttered along until the time of the industrial revolution.  A person living in the mid 16th century would have more in common with a person in the year 600 than those in the 2010's.  Many traditional societies, as hunter-gatherer societies or cultures are often referred to, would know little of the concept of economic growth.  Yet, in the western world the impression of lackluster growth has brought down presidents, and prime ministers. From cities, to counties, to states, and to the nation, growth is often thought to be necessary to drive and enhance the lifestyle enjoyed in the west.  In the United States, it is almost as if growth is part of our DNA.  The need for growth and resources drove the settlement of distant lands.  It certainly was part of the original 13 colonies, and was perhaps most clearly expressed by not only Thomas Jefferson's Louisiana Purchase, but the whole concept of manifest destiny.  Who cared about the Indians of the west, the American goal was land from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

Head west young man

The idea of manifest destiny was seen as a natural progression of geographic growth.  But, growth is affected by more than geography.  One analyst, Mike Alexander, building on research of Harry Dent, believes that a downturn in population of the main spending cohort (what he and Dent say is ages 45--49) was partially responsible for the great depression.  Prior to the great recession, Harry Dent working off birth patterns and immigration, pegged the beginning of a recession in 2007.  Dent believes that peak spending occurs in the age 45-49 age cohort. As spending drops, so would the nation enter a recession. It is all relative. In fact, he has analyzed statistics to point to age 48 as the peak year. Since 100 economicst will give 100 different answers, another economist notes that the peak spending age is 46.5 years.  Whichever it is, they are close enough for this blogger.  The difference is minor when talking about generations.

Growth of the nation

After that age, spending tends to decline.  Of course, while a person is often a statistic, we all have our own lives, interests, and spending habits.  Yet, analysts like Dent pour over the data to make generalizations, and from this data he predicted a recession 2007, which in hindsight was quite prescient.  The great recession may have begun with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and other financial institutions, but perhaps those were the catalyst.  High gas prices, in a time before fracking (which has lowered gas prices), ate into people's income and caused less discretionary income. Some homeowners had over extended on their housing loans, this was affected by overbuilding of houses and a drop in demand, due to the smaller demographic.  Generation X, that smaller demographic stuck between the boomers and the millennials suffered the worst of the consequences.  Based on pure demographics, many would have thought that Dent's forecast for the recession would have occurred earlier, but Dent had a few year delay due to his having added migration patterns in to his calcuation.

Consumers account for about 70% of total GDP

By 2007 most of the boomer spending peak was coming to an end.  While the peak spending year was in 2009, according to Doug Short, spending was starting to plateau in about 2003 to 2005.  Yes, spending still increased, but the rate of increase was decreasing and a plateau of spending was starting.  The start of the spending plateau fairly well tracks the age of the 1957 birth cohort.  It is often said that President Bill Clinton pulled off economic miracles.  But, much of the growth in his presidency was actually related to the demographics of boomers entering their peak spending years.  Yes, trade deals of Clinton and prior administrations assisted by making overseas goods so cheap, and yes China was then up and coming in the international scene as an economic powerhouse (one could say boomer spending help make the Chinese economy), and yes, Clinton lessened the rules for home ownership which helped lead to the housing crash (and recession) a decade later, yet demographics still played a large role.  The boomer cohort on spending for themselves and their children was just too many persons and too large.  Add in that all the easy solutions for economic growth have occurred, information age and the large entrance of women into the labor force, and it means that other economic crisis may be more difficult to ride out.

Peak Spending by Doug Short, 2012

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates so low for so long that they will now lack the ability to adjust to the next economic downturn.  Harry Dent has predicted, based on demographics, that the glory days of spending will not significantly increase for about 10 years, as the millennials reach peak spending age. Even then, the forecast is that spending will not increase as it had during the peak spending years of the boomers. The poor generation Xer's are just a small blip between demographic tsunami's.  They are the Rodney Dangerfield's of the current generations.  Numbers produce dominance and the Xer's lack the numbers.  As long ago as 2004 CBS broadcast "60 Minutes" talked about how millennials were now starting to shape the world.  Back in 2004 the oldest of that group was just in college and the youngest in grade school.

Boomer waves, per blog "Economic Edge"

While the millennials, that connected generation, have reformed some aspects of culture, think craft beer and local food movement, us baby boomers will likely not go quietly.  You see, as us boomers are now looking forward toward retirement, and many already having retired, our spending is lower, but we also will continue to drive some aspects in our culture.  Their is a reason so much is being written about retirement and if persons have set aside sufficient money for retirement.  It is because the boomers are driving that conversation, and financial planners are more than willing to make a buck off of the assistance,and advice, they can provide.  The boomer generation may be beyond spending on their home, large toys (think how Harley Davidson motor cycle sales boomed over ten years ago, everyone had to have a Harley), tuition for the kids, all things electronic (even now their is press coverage that cell phone sales have peaked--market saturation), and many other aspects of consumer goods.  Heck, I  now have trouble trying to find a gift for my spouse for her birthday.  Come to think of it, when did I not have trouble trying to think of a gift to buy her, so this is not a really relevant statement.  She has most of she needs or wants, and I have most of what I need or want.  We are, however, in need of a new tarp to cover our screen tent when we camp.  I guess you know you are beyond peak spending when a tarp is the top item on your need list, and you check the Menard and Farm and Fleet advertisements for tarp sales (or it is an idea of how boring our lives are).   Millennials have yet to reach peak spending.  The gen X'rs, that small group stuck between the boomers and the boomer echo (aka Millenials), essentially lack a large demographic to makeup for the boomers is what is affecting growth.  Harry Dent is now predicting a recession for 2017, so pity the poor president who becomes victim to the Dent's predicted demographic headwinds.  If you click here you can see a link to an interactive website which predicts the spending wave of growth and decline for most countries in the world.  this web site has the next growth period starting in nine years, 2025. (Take a close look at Italy, and recall from my prior post its inverted demographic pyramid and how long its period of decline is.)

Spending bublles on a web site which would seem to show peak
spending being between 50 and 54 (ixicorp.com)

I suspect I was married rather late for a boomer and hence our children were born near the end of the echo boom, so we may not have had our peak spending years between 45 and 49. We are probably a disdain for an economist like Harry Dent, we did not move up in housing as our kids entered their teen years (as he said is a common occurrence), nor have we ever had cable television, much less a satellite dish. We keep our vehicles until near death they do us part.  We also never bought some big adult toys, like a motor boat, camper or Harley; although as I age sometimes sleeping off the ground when camping in a rainstorm starts to sound pretty good.   Yet, we have computers, tablets, and my wife now even has a smartphone. Spending occurs, but as empty nesters it is now less than before--just as Harry Dent would predict. The end of our peak earning years is upon us as we look forward to retirement. Mr. Short, writing in 2012, noted that:

many analysts often think of retiring boomers as the primary drag on the economy with their transformation for the accumulation to the decumulation phase of their life-cycle, but if we understand the crucial role of consumption for our economic health (about 70% of GDP), a significant decline in the number of peak spends is a demographic headwind that will challenge us for years to come.

 Baby Boomers have been blamed for the down turn in spending.  Why would someone even think you need to keep spending as you once had?  If Boomers shoulder the blame for the downturn in spending, think what it will be like for entitlement programs, such as social security. Tune in for a later post on Boomer Blame, part 3.

Boomer Blame (part 1)

Historical novels have been written tracking a family through the centuries. When my children were in elementary school they had an assignment to place genealogical information in a time line of national and world events. We are all part of history, and that can make life interesting when we ponder some of the connections. For example, my siblings and I, along with our descendants,  fairly well track the course of the both the baby boom generation and boomer echo generation. The US Census Bureau has the baby boom beginning in 1946 and lasting to 1964. My oldest sibling was born in early January 1948 (close enough) and my youngest was born in 1964 (dead on). In 1957 the nation had set a record for the highest number of births, a record that would last for fifty years. When surpassed in 2007, it was not by much. 1957 is the year of my birth, and my parents did their part to make it the largest population cohort in US history (until 2007) by giving birth to twins. Of course, in 1957 the number of live births per 1,000 women of child-bearing age (15—44) was much higher at 122.9 than it was in 2007 when it was 69.3. This post will focus on demographic trends, and a later post will focus on economic linkage to demographics. Baby boomers have for years dominated American cultural trends, and in so doing they get credit or blame for the workings of the nation. The boomers are now entering retirement and the consumer, cultural and social clout is switching to their offspring.  This demographic movement is a first world problem.

Population Pyramids for 1964 with my family at that time
and one for 2005 with my wife and children

The free-love and peace events of the 1960’s began a series of cultural movements that are still on-going today. Perhaps the introduction of the pill in the mid 1960’s placed an end to the baby boom, but it was also related to demographics as the WWII generation (the parents of  the baby boomers) were nearing the end of their child bearing years. Some demographers have stated that with the rise of the pill, and other cultural shifts, children "lost" value in American society.  Not only was the number of births at a record low for much of the 1970's, but the abortion rate climbed sharply in the 1970’s.  The abortion rate would later decline by about half after the 1980’s. The same demographers say that children began to take on a renewed level of importance to young couples  in the 80's.  In the late 1980’s the live birth rate began to climb to near four million a year, and in taht decade would surpass the four million mark for the first time since 1964. The rise of the births in the 1980’s would lead to what is called the baby boom echo—children of us boomers, most of whom today are part of the millennial generation. Demographers seem to differ on the start date of the echo generation.  Some say it began in 1977, others say it began in 1982, while others say it was 1985. Whatever the start date, they all seem to concur that the end date was 1994.  As an aside, let me point out that it was just this year that the millenials overtook the Boomer generation as the largest in the nation.  This was due to two things--the increase in mortality among the boomers (of which our family has unfortunately been apart), and immigration which increased the number of millenials.

US Census pyramids for select years.  If you look closely you can see where some 2030 generations
 will be smaller than those in 2010, mainly generation X

Having been born near the middle of the boomer generation, but the last of my siblings to be married, my two children were born in 1991 and 1994.  For the overall children of my siblings there is one of generation X, born 1970, one born in 1982, and all others in 1985 or after.  Perhaps this shows why demographers do not know what date to  proclaim as the start date, as to my knowledge they never studied this family.  On the other end of the timeline, only one of my nieces and nephews was born after 1994.  The Hovel family is well connected to the baby boom and the echo boom.  Tracking the generations we can also see some of the common cultural dynamics attributed to the boomers and their offspring.

Not discussed, but an important factor is the
dependency ratio, fewer and fewer to support more and more

The echo boomers reflect dynamic changes that have occurred in American society. They were the first to grow up with computers, the first to have cell phones at a young age, they have made Facebook ubiquitous to where it is even used by their parents and grandparents. They saw the change in society from VHS tapes, to CD’s and now to streaming of movies and television shows. They own no landline for phone service. Can openers would be foreign to them, until the hipster resurgance of all things 50ish occurred. Think how record players and fifty-era furniture and styles are now in vogue. (I wonder if the fifty era revivial is brought on by boomers trying to gather items from their childhood, or if the things they grew up with are now thought of as cool.)  Of most interest to the echo generation is that they are often thought to be over-managed. They were driven to most all places they needed to go. For example in 1969 over 41% of 5 to 14 year olds walked or biked to school; that figure dropped to less than 13% in 2009.  It is rather ironic that their parents who came of age in the 1960’s and 1970’s, claiming independence from their parents and caused a major change in cultural values (e.g. pill, abortion, sex outside of marriage) were so overly protective of their children, producing what is now referred to as Helicopter parents.  Parents, it could be argued, knowing what they were like as children did not want their children getting involved in similar activities. I think of the "Everybody Loves Raymond" episode where it comes out that Debra pulled off her shirt, and bra during Mardi Gras, and wondered if it not best to lock her daughter up to make sure she did not do the same.   Let me say here, that not all of us boomers fit the common stereo-type of the boomer generation.  The boomers, overall (and not in everey case), grew up with more independence than they probably allowed their children, as can be gleaned from this earlier post.   At leat that is what all the experts assert.  Us boomers are often referred to as the "Me" generation, but if they were so protective of their children, was it less about them and more about their kids?

2014 Population Pyramid

Today, among the echo boomers, the nation is grappling with a fertility rate at or near record lows. Although, in absolute numbers total births are near that produced in the early years of the baby boom (1946—1953). For example, in 2015, the number of live births was just below 4 million, a value somewhat comparable to that in 1953. The US currently sees about 2.6 million deaths per year, which is lower than the birth rate, although demographers point out that deaths will increase with the aging of the baby boomer population. Child bearing is occurring later and later in life. For example, forty years ago women in their 20’s had 2.5 times the births of women in their early 30’s. However, today women in their 30’s have more children than those in their 20’s. It is probably a good thing though that births among 18 and 19 years old females is half of what it was as recently as the early 1990’s.  

Pyramid from the Atlantic article

These trends too can be seen in our family.  Of the 16 Hovel cousins (sons or daugthers of myself and siblings), three are married, and of the those three, only two have children. The generation X niece has two offspring, both born after the end of the boomer echo (1999 and 2004), and the next oldest, born in 1982 has one child.  Three others, who are at least thirty years of age are not married.  All ten female cousins fall within the census based age grouping for fertility (15 to 44); three of the females are married, with two having produced three children total among them.  I am not intending to make any judgements, only to point out how the family mirrors the demographic trends of the nation.  One thing the family has not mirrored, which in my mind is a good thing, is the national demographic trends of out of wedlock births.  All three of the grand niece and nephews were born to a wedded couple.  Today, and for several years now, around 40% of the births nationally have been to an unmarried mother.

Italy's Population Pyramid is becoming inverted

There is a certain irony that with the change in sexual mores of cohabitation, and births out of wedlock that the birth rate is near historic lows. However, largest population cohort in the nation is the 24 to 25 year old age group who are have recently entered the work force and establishing themselves in their careers.  At some point, if current trends continue, they will marry and have children in their 30's.  

Japan's Pyramid

Population cohorts are critical to the vibrancy of a nation. Demographers use population pyramids to visually show the demographic makeup of a nation. Historically, the population pyramid was, well a pyramid. But, today the one for the US is forming the shape of a population box.  The Pew Research Center has noted as much, of which the Atlantic based on article on that research; The Atlantic has a web site that one can track the change from a pyramid to a projected box in 2060.  [Scroll to middle image of the prior link to see the moving pyramid over time.]  However, we do not need to wait to 2060 to see the forming of the box, as I said, it is starting to form at present time.  A box, however, is better than an inverted pyramid that is being seen by some other developed countries.  To me the population box, along with an inverted pyramid, is indicative of a post-modern world with minimal growth.  A first world problem.  Given this, expectations of growth as seen since the end of WWII will likely not be experienced, even with changes in technology.  Births in the US and many European nations is well below the 2.1 births per woman (aka fertility rate) required for replacement, except for many immigrants.  If Europe seems different now, wait 25 to 30 years when there will be few Italians, and Spaniards.  (The CIA Factbook identifies the current Italian fertility rate to be a very low 1.47.  It identifies the birth rate at 8.74 births/1000, and the death rate at 10.19/1000 persons.)  Thye are not even replacing themselves.  The 2015 US fertility rate was 1.87.

Why does all this matter? it is really quite simple.  Growth of the first world has been essentially driven by the baby boom generation  from spending by their parents to their spending on their children.  Boomers are now nearing retirement and their peak spending yeras are in the past.  It was their wealth that drove the nation to new economic levels. In driving up first world economies, it also aided many second and third world economies (think overseas production of goods, even if it is a sweatshop). Economies depend upon growth and growth is dependent on more than spending, it is it also dependent upon people.  The US is a very wealthy nation, it is just that over the past several years wealth has become more and more concentrated in the hands of a few--the top 1 and 10%, if you will.  The average citizen has seen more or less stagnant wages as globalization had reduced that part of the population to the lowest common denominator.   A one percenter only needs so many homes, and can buy only so many items. A radio ad for workers at Stoughton Trailer promises a salary of up to $17/per hour for assembly line workers, or a annual salary of just over $35,000 per year.  Demographics is part of what has driven the growth of the nation.  Of course their are other factors as well, but some argue non as strong as pure demographics.  A future post will talk about the relationship between demography and the nation's economic health.

Nature Undone

The National Park Service celebrated its 100th birthday last Thursday, although the first National Park, Yellowstone, was accomplished by President Grant in 1872.  Last week the press doted on the creation of the managing unit for our national parks, this week they have focused on overuse and misuse of some of our great national parks.  The main focus, in an article earlier this week, was on Yellowstone.  Man can affect nature in a variety of ways.  All things are relative, and this post will focus on the fate of one relatively small, but significantly (relatively speaking) beautiful, piece of state property just west of Baraboo, Wisconsin.

Waterfall at Pewit's Nest

Baraboo is also home to Devil's Lake State Park, the largest of Wisconsin's state parks.  Yet, the Baraboo area is also the location of other unique geologic and historical features not part of the current park.  Even though I worked for a number of years with the Sauk County Planning Office, I never recall having heard of Pewit's Nest.  A State Natural Area encompasses this unique geologic feature.  Pewit's Nest was created by melt waters of former glacial lake Baraboo as it cut through some fine grained sedimentary deposits.  It is a gorge, containing water falls, and pot holes.  Some of the pot holes are rather large and deep.  At one time its waterfalls powered a lathe which was used to make and repair equipment.  Prior to the water of Skillet Creek feeding a lathe, a man lived in a cavern about 10' above the deep water pool in what was termed a Phoebe nest, of which Pewit is an earlier recognized version,  Hence the origin of the name.

Another waterfall

But, the name does not adequately describe this unique geologic feature. Albeit it is kind of a unique name, almost cute. First, it is a state natural area.  Such areas are meant to be enjoyed, but lightly used.  A large number of people now come to not only swim, but to climb and jump off rocks into the water.  It is now much more highly used than its small parking lot would attest.  My only visit to the site was on Monday, August 22, 2016 in mid-morning.  A number of persons were already climbing and jumping off the rocks, in violation of posted signs.  No doubt it can be fun.  But for the Baraboo rescue department it is not fun.  As of last week Tuesday, they had five rescues for the year.  Two rescues alone occurred on August 18.  It is a dangerous place with rocks difficult to see below the surface.  It has become more popular since it apparently has been described as one of the five best swimming holes in Wisconsin.  I did wade into the water to get some photos, but avoided rock climbing and of course no jumping.  It is heavily used and the trampled landscape attests to that use.  The WIDNR would be much better off installing some wood chip paths and trying to restore some ground cover. Given the rescues and overuse, the WIDNR is in the process of coming up with management strategies for the site.  The lack of proper ground cover can lead to erosion which is detrimental to water quality.

A side wall of rock in Pewit's Nest, with Skillet Creek at the bottom

However, the biggest threat to water quality may not be the ground trampled within a few hundred feet of the creek, but what is occurring upstream.  Most all of us like to use highways to get some place fast.  The Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WIDOT) is in the midst of a massive highway 12 bypass of project.  (Massive is a word to describe some of the bridges.) The bypass begins north of South Shore Road and will head to the Wisconsin Dells.  I am sure the Dells area business owners are pleased as punch to get Madison west-siders more quickly and less impeded to the Dells.  The new bypass near the west Baraboo area will be less than one-half mile from the current four lane road way.  No big deal most would say, but to Skillet Creek and Pewit's Nest it very well may be a BIG DEAL.

Waterfall from downstream

You see, the bypass in this area is less than one half mile away from Pewit's Nest and it also crosses Skillet Creek.  Oh, you ask, is the purpose of detention ponds not meant to keep water clean and reduce flooding?  As much as engineer's may think they can mimic natural systems, it is not totally possible.  Detained water as it is released has the ability to scour and affect streams which leads to more stream bank erosion.  Storm basins also can lose effectiveness over time, partly due to sedimentation from erosion.

Skillet Creek as it runs though part of the Pewit's Nest State Natural Area

Time has not been pleasant to the land uses along the current Highway 12 corridor on the west side of the Baraboo area.  The current corridor is comprised of standard 1990 to present day land use thinking of big boxes, strip malls and restaurants.  A former Wal-Mart, is now partially occupied by a Gander Mountain, and some past strip malls are vacant.  When thing is sure as taxes, American retailers, unfortunately, follow the interchange.  West Baraboo, has installed water and sewer mains to serve the area of west of the interchange.  West of the interchange will take it closer to Pewit's Nest.  We also know that big box retailers tend to abandon their site after 20 or 30 years and move to a new location. The planning literature is ripe with such exploits of free-enterprise.  Our consumer society likes new, and so then do politicians, at the expense of nature, and economics. Heck, if I were to predict, in 100 years the bypass to the bypass will be built going just west of Pewit's Nest.   

Ready to make the jump from the rock outcropping
into the deep basin at Pewit's Nest

WIDOT likes to say they don't make land use plans, but their decisions certainly affect local decision makers who cannot get enough of an interchange. Perhaps, WIDOT has properly planned storm water control so that the interchange and bypass will have a minimal effect on Skillet Creek. However, I am sure the coming big boxes, strip malls, and other auto-oriented development surely will have a negative effect on this water way, and by extension Pewit's Nest.  Development means more storm water, less natural systems to feed the creek and run through Pewit's nest.   This type of development may not happen right away, but it will happen.  The affect on  the water quality may not occur soon after construction (although remember that erosion is a detriment to water quality), but it will occur.  DOT and the desire of West Baraboo, and Baraboo for what many call economic development may well solve the Pewit's Nest problem for the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources.  

A waterfall as viewed from a downstream location

The engineering and planning literature on water quality tells us that after a watershed is 10% developed, the water becomes impaired.  After 25% the stream quality becomes degraded, or non-supporting.  Regardless of what stormwater management measures are used there will be failures.  There will be problems.  The water quality in Skillet Creek will become so bad, no one will desire to climb the sides of Pewit's Nest and jump in the water. Scouring of the stream bank will occur more quickly eroding the sedimentary rocks than naturally occurs.  Silt will clog the now deep pot holes in which persons jump and swim. Why enjoy the reality of nature when one can enjoy a ersatz experience in the Kalahari Desert just a few miles north in the Wisconsin Dells.  

Source:  2009  City of Fitchburg Comprehensive Plan

Development is not economic when it negatively affects or destroys what nature has taken 15,000 years to create. Economics should not be viewed as destruction, but as working within the carrying capacity of, and more importantly respect for, natural systems.   Unfortunately, man's desire for quick transportation, and our auto-oriented forms of development will undo part of what draws people to the area.  In 100 years Pewit's Nest may be bordered by Baraboo versions of a Wisconsin Dells water park.  Nature Undone.  

Photos by author, taken on Monday, August 22, 2016.

Corn Fest Change

It is said, albeit by their own Chamber of Commerce, to be the oldest corn festival in the state of Wisconsin, having begun in 1953.  I am of course referring to the Sun Prairie Sweet Corn Festival. What is interesting is that for decades claimed attendance was said to be 100,000 persons.  When it first started it was held on Angell Street, north of Main Street, but the festival site was moved to Angell Park a few years later.  Angell Park is but a few blocks from where I grew up.  Things have changed over the years since my attendance at the festival when I was much younger.  I had a long absence from the event, but about six years ago took up going once again at the urging of my nephew, who apparently likes to hear the stories of old.  This post will contrast the days gone by, from my childhood over 40 years ago, to what I see today in the operation of the Corn Fest.  

In times of plenty, as I was growing up, you could get as much corn as you desired for free.  Increased costs caused them to start selling totes, in which you have to fit all your corn.  At first, totes cost one dollar, but today a tote costs $7.  The other major change you note upon entering is that they now charge a one dollar admission fee.  Corn was first steamed at the Oconomowoc Canning Company located right next to Angell Park, and the corn tent was but a stone's throw away from where the corn was steamed in very large steamer basket, which barely would fit in the back of a pick up truck.  Pick up trucks would haul the steamed corn from across the street.  It was always interesting to watch as the corn was unloaded onto a conveyor belt, just as it is today.  Unclaimed ears would run up the conveyor  belt into a dumpster.  The canning company is now a restaurant, and a new steam site had to be built several blocks away.  I guess you cannot blame them for the need to charge for corn now that corn is more expensive, hope to cut down on waste, and of course to pay for the steamer operation, if not its debt.

Husking the corn

Today, volunteers pull the corn off the conveyor belt and want to load it into your tote.  For most years, we have been able to thwart their attempt to limit our collection of corn, by doing it ourselves, or letting them do it and then going back for extra ears and loading more in after husking the corn.  Last year, however, my attempt at a nice load was encumbered by an overzealous volunteer, who kept following our every attempt to load and get every potential ear of corn into the tote.  I recall her rather rudely ruining my planned exodus of an enormous hold of corn.  But, this year, we were not going to let an over anxious volunteer get the better of us. Completely ignoring the helpful volunteer we stacked 22 ears in the tote.  I had room for at least three more, but my nephew commented we need to save room to break this personal record next year.  I think he did not want to push the envelope, so to speak.  The butter girl was so impressed with our haul; she wanted me to reload the tote as she knew she would not get it correct.  Needless to say as I made way though lines of people stacked to purchase their tote, they commented in awe at our heap of corn.   My secret lies in the photo.  You are to be allowed to put as much corn as you can in a tote, but for some reason they think what I do is beyond reason.  I am also one to not let a good ear of steamed corn go to waste.  Anyway, if we were not grabbing it, it is only more ears up the conveyor into the dumpster to become pig feed.

Our 22 ears of  well buttered corn in one tote

Pig feed is how my deceased brother-in-law would describe the eating of corn on the cob. I have always been a big sweet corn eater and why stop now?  I think my nephew likes to hear my stories of eating corn, many of which his father (my twin brother) has likely embellished over the years of telling.  My nephew and his sister did not have bed time books read to them, they were regaled with Uncle Tom stories.  I never knew my mundane life could be considered so exciting.  One story is of the dozen ears I ate the night before boarding a airplane flight to New York.  Needless to say, it was not a pleasant flight.  There is also the stories of the corn eating contest which has gone the way of the free corn. One of my sister's would be dropped off near the park, and would go into the corn tent the back way and obtain a large grocery or garbage bag full of nicely steamed corn.  We would enjoy that Corn Fest namesake that one Sunday every year with the every Sunday BBQ chicken dinner my Dad would make on his enormous (Texan) Weber grill.  

My Dad was involved in a number of civic organizations and would put in many hours working at the brat tent, which used to be right next to the beer tent, or selling carnival tickets, or serve at the Knights of Columbus ring toss game.  When attending the festival, we were not allowed to spend any money for games on the "carnival side."  My dad wished the money we spent to go back to the local organizations that sponsored the games.  We could go on rides, but were encouraged to do so when the tickets had a special, like the first night, or late on Sunday.  Of the games, my favorite was the KC ring toss.  One year I won a whole case of quart bottles.  I was probably about 13 at the time, and had to haul them over to where my Dad was volunteering so he could take them home.  Of course, today, the KC game has you ring the top of a smaller, plastic bottle, and in exchange you get a can of soda.  No more glass quart bottles.

Joe at the KC Ring Toss

It takes volunteers to run booths and events, like the ring toss game.  What I see occurring at the Corn Festival is not unlike what Robert Putnam discusses in his book, Bowling Alone.  The decline of social capital and social organizations in the nation is playing out.  I have previously written on how I also see this manifested in our land use pattern.  The Greatest Generation has it up on the boomers, and others as they were more highly involved in their communities.  The peak period of civic involvement was in my key years of childhood.  You see, the Sun Prairie side used to have a large number of games, in addition to the KC ring toss,  all run by civic or fraternal organizations.  The past six years has shown me that of these games, only the ring toss survives.  There are of course other booths, the ever present evangelical churches displaying salvation, displays of bath re-modelers (more for a home show than a festival), and of course the local bank. This is a major change in our current culture and perhaps not one for the better.  Social engagement is important.  Alexis de Tocqueville commented on it in his seminal work, and of course their is the work by Robert Putnam.

Eaten Ears of Sweet Corn

While my nephew, and my son who often attends with us, will never know the feeling of not having to pay for corn (or a fee-less entry into the event) the main thing they will not see is the volunteers of civic organizations raising money for their own organizations which gets invested back into the community.  Of course their are volunteers, the festival could not run without them, but there is a decline in those important small civic, social and fraternal organizations that helped build the nation.  My father understood this, and as part of the greatest generation, he did his share of civic involvement.  Yes, there is something nostalgic about some of the things that still hold true at the corn fest: the butter girls earn money from tips for college (although I recall buttering as a member of the boy scouts, and back then we used 4 inch paint brush whereas today they wear plastic gloves and roll it in the butter), the conveyor belt, the umbrella clothes line draped with salt shakers (now plastic shakers ather than glass).  But the down turn in the games on the "Sun Prairie" side shows a different side, and a cultural shift. 

As children, we spent a great deal of time at the Corn Fest.  It was the end of summer event.  As for my mom, her benefit was some alone time, as for much of Corn Fest weekend, except Sunday dinner, her husband and the kids were down at the Corn Fest.  Dad working in the brat booth, or at another venue.  As for me, I could either be found eating corn, or playing the ring toss game.  And today, 22 ears of steamed corn for $7, not a bad price.  

Photos by Christopher Hovel, taken on August 21, 2016

Another World

The current hit television show, "The Big Bang Theory" usually deals with the foibles and personality quirks of its scientist lead characters, particularly one intellectually gifted, but high maintenance physicist. The show, however, sometimes deals with matters of scientific interest. One interesting note, is that with the two physicists, one astronomer and the lone engineer among them who “only has his master’s degree” will deal with outer space. For example, they have looked at stars, and Howard, the engineer, was even an astronaut. It also has dealt with Howard crashing the Mars Rover in an attempt to impress a date, and Leonard giving away secrets to a North Korean agent.  Hence, I would not be surprised if they find a way to deal with a new issue going around the galaxy.

Milky Way Galaxy

Star KC 8642852, otherwise known as Tabby, has been followed by the Kepler satellite. It is quite far from earth, being about 1400 light years away.  nformation from the satellite shows that the light curve of Tabby was first reported to have followed a typical light curve for a star of its classification, but upon further review that analysis has been overturned. The light curve provides, from information gathered from Kepler, ten dips of a rather marked nature. A August 2016 study by Montet and Simon notes that Tabby dimmed in its first four years of study by Kepler at a linearly predictable rate, but then dimmed "much more rapidly in the next ~200 days.” The final 200 days of study showed a photometry that remained constant “although the data are also consistent with decline rate measured for the first 2.7 yr.” The dip in the light curve rate was the subject of their paper. The most interesting thing uncovered in Montet and Simon’s professional paper is that “no known or proposed stellar phenomenon can fully explain all aspects of the observed light curve.” Montent is quoted by "Popular Mechanics" as saying that “the part that surprised me was just how rapid and non-linear [the diming] was.” This is a big deal, as either their data is not fully correct, the math wrong, or there now has to be a new theory in physics and astronomy. Time will tell as peer review occurs.  Yet, there is another option.

Death Star

It has been proposed, and of course cannot at this time be discounted, that aliens are building a large superstructure around the star to harvest its energy. While we here on earth are choking and burning on fossil fuel consumption, some other beings may be building their version of a solar array to harvest energy. Could they be aiming to power their own death star to blow up another planet in interstellar warfare? Montet and Simon realize that there are theories that can explain part of what is occurring but no current theory, according the bright minds that look at such things, can fully explain the dimming and flickering of light from Tabby.  In tha that Popular Mechanics article, Montet acknowledged it took them awhile to get their head around their results.

A Dyson sphere as a solar array
Artist rendering of what the Alien structure may look like

The Montet and Simon paper is producing a great deal of excitement in the field of astronomy. This is where Sheldon Cooper comes in, perhaps he will develop the theory that will explain the odd light behavior of KC 8642852 and in so doing earn his Nobel prize. Raj and Leonard may well provide input, but one can be assured that since the world revolves around Sheldon he will take all the credit. Sheldon has his own universe, and while KC 8642852 is in our galaxy, to us it is in another world. Of course, this whole study may turn out to be another case more analogous to cold fusion.

Main cast of "Big Bang Theory"

Island

It was probably the most famous prison in all of the United States, and while it had a long history as a military prison, its life as a federal pentientiary was relatively short.  For 29 years, from 1934 until 1963, Alcatraz aka "The Rock" housed the most dangerous federal criminals in the nation.   It was on this date in 1934, August 11, that the first group of prisoners arrived on an island off the coast of San Francisco, and walked into a heavily fortified building.  

Prison block in Alcatraz

It was uninhabited by humans when Spanish Lieutenant Juan Manuel de Ayala explored the small island in 1775.  He is credited with naming the island, at least as far as recognized by American civilization, calling it Isla de los Alcatraces, or "Island of the Pelicans."  The Spanish name has been Americanized.  Alcatraz certainly sounds more foreboding and dark than does Pelican,  but that could simply be a result of mental image of word association with the prison, rather than with pelicans.  The island was sold to the United States in 1849.  In 1854 it gained some now unrecognized notariety as the lcoation of the first lighthouse off the coast of California.  Five years later a US Army detachment was sent to live on the island.  I suspect those men were less than impressed with the living conditions.  Beginning in 1868, Alcatraz became home to military criminals.  Besides housing bad boy soldiers, it housed rebellious Indian scouts, and soliders who had deserted to the Filipino cause in the US war with the Phillipines.  

Prison cell

However, its most famous prisoners were during its 29 year term as a federal prison.  Two of course probably come immediately to mind--Al Capone, and the Bird Man of Alcatraz whose name was Richard Stroud.  Capone, who arrived slightly later in 1934, gained notariety for his exploits in the Chicago underworld, and not because his niece, Delores Maritote, once dated my only still living uncle.  The Bird Man, on the other hand, gained fame due to his ornitholigical studies while impriosoned in Leavenworth.  Some of his studies were published.  It was his killing of a guard in that Kansas prison that gained him an all expenses paid trip to Alcatraz. 

Al Capone, Alcatgraz Mug shot

Escape from Alcatraz was difficult, and it is widely believed of the three or so dozen who tried to escape none were successful.  Although not all bodies were recovered.  Only one man is thought to have swum the distance to shore, and he was found hypothermic and in poor condition when he got ashore.  

Richard Stroud

Due to costs of keeping the prison operational, then Attorney General Robert Kennedy decided to close the prison.  It was briefly occupied by some Sioux Indians in 1964, using the belief from an earlier, 1868, treaty that unoccupied government territory was their's to reclaim.  A more rebellious group of Sioux occupied the island in 1969, but federal marshals put an end to that occupation in 1971.  

Alcatraz

Alcatraz still stands in the nation's collective memory of what a prison was.  Today it is part of the Golden Gate National Recreation area, maintained by the US Park Service.  Alcatraz sees over one million visitors a year.  Alcatraz is word associated with the prison, and that word in the nation has one intense association, and that association is not of Pelicans.  The Birdman of Pelican Island may have some literary association, but it is no where near as dastardly sounding as the Birdman of Alcatraz.  Stroud was not allowed to continue his study of birds while at Alcatraz.  Hence, it is left unknown what he would have determined from a study of seabirds. As for my uncle and his date, I think it was a one time event of dinner at Chicago's Old Hilton Hotel Boulevard Room, and attending the Ice Capades.  

"Get off the Bridge!"

My wife and I got back Thursday afternoon from a trip to Door County.  It was a hastily planned trip, with reservations made about two or less weeks before our excursion to the peninsula.  It was our third trip in the last few years.  I guess you can tell we are getting older when we no longer spend all of our summer vacations in a tent.  My last post dealt with the view of wildlife and changes in the camping experience over the years at Laura Lake.  This post will deal with our recent trip to Door County, and a few of our unexpected experiences in one of the prime Wisconsin vacation locations.

Light House at Peninsula State Park

We stayed at the same Bed and Breakfast as we did in late August of 2013 and in October of 2015.  The White Lace Inn, where we stayed, has four different buildings, and both of our August trips we stayed in the Main House, while our October stay was in the Garden House, in a room with a fireplace.  The fireplace came in handy on that wet, cold stay in the peninsula.  We have always been pleased with the breakfasts served, but noticed this year, the breakfast has become a little more "up-scale" with some new cooks.  The owner commented to us a few years ago that it is a bed and breakfast, not a breakfast and a bed, and thus he had some pride in not having overly ostentatious breakfasts.  I suspect standards, and change in tastes of customers force change.  One of the interesting things about staying in a B & B is they other guests you meet.

Red Sky at Night, Sunset over Green Bay

Having grown up in Wisconsin, I think I tend to take Door County for granted.  However, my wife said after shopping, what else do you do to take up the time of day?  After all, there are only so many natural features to see.   And, if you are a red-head there is only so much sun you can take.  Not to mention, as our camping trip to Laura Lake, this trip had unusually hot and humid weather for Door County.  On this trip we heard from guests living in Colorado, Grosse Point, MI, and the state of Oregon.  All three had come here specifically because they had heard about how great Door County is.  In talking with the persons from Colorado, it was noted that Door County is to us, what the mountains are to them.  The couples from Oregon and Colorado specifically mentioned the size of the Great Lakes, and how that is an attraction for them.  The Great lakes contain 20% of the world's fresh water.  Like the mountains, the water of Lakes Superior and Michigan have formed much of Wisconsin,  Heck, if we did not have the Great Lakes, we may be, well, a less fertile soil version of Iowa.  Fresh water will be our next oil, so we best use it wisely.

Interplay of Land and Water in Door County, WI

Sturgeon Bay Ship Yards

One of our favorite destinations on Lake Michigan is Cave Point County Park.  The dolomite of the Niagara escarpment is the defining feature of the Door County land surface, and the interplay of water and dolomite leads to caves and outcroppings as the water eats away at the dolomite. Twice we visited Cave Point, and our first visit on Wednesday afternoon, we had never seen the place so busy, and in fact they had added an overflow parking lot earlier this year that was almost filled to capacity.  Besides the amount of people we noticed that mainly teenagers and millennial's were jumping off the high cliffs into the water below.  As noted in my prior post, my middle name is "Careful", so I chose not to  participate.  A young lady hit the rocks on her jump in, and I felt a tub like me would drop even further.  I don't recall ever seeing persons jump in before, and if so, not of this frequency where they had  a que line of three or four on each side.  That drew me to the next observation, the water level is much higher than it was in 2013 or even last October.  I was used to walk on the exposed dolomite shelf up and down much of the shoreline.  I would have been soaked if I had tried to do so this year.  The water is said to be about 3 to 4' higher than just two years ago, and much higher, it was said, than even this past spring.  Yet, I did walk  on the trail on the grade above, and a few hundred paces north of the main blow-hole event I came across a totally unexpected site--artwork of man using only the broken pieces of dolomite worn out of the Niagara formation by Mother Nature over the last thousands of years.  A narrow slit of land filled with carins. I had noticed a few such structures on the last two visits, but not near the extent that I now saw before my eyes.  It was really quite the scene.  To think of the time and effort that went into making such simple, yet apparently resilient structures out of simple pieces of dolomite.

Cairns at Cave Point

Yet, humans also can spring surprises, too.  After our visit to Cave Point Wednesday afternoon we headed to Sturgeon Bay to watch a series of tall ships come in to the channel for the night before heading out Thursday morning to Green Bay. We plan to see the tall ships in Duluth, and did not know until we arrived in Sturgeon Bay that they would come here for the night.  We walked down from our B & B a few blocks to the harbor area and congregated on the west most of the three drawbridges crossing the channel between Lake Michigan and Green Bay.  I went further up to the middle of the bridge to get some better photos.  Like many drawbridges this had much of the draw part being a metal surface of squares, which caused cars to make a thunder sound as they sped by.  My wife stayed further down, and could hear the announcement to clear the bridge, which, because of traffic noise on the metal, I could not hear.  She and others were yelling what the bridge master had been saying--"Get off the bridge!"  Of course, cars still rumbled by, and a man next to my wife says, "Look at the guy in the green shirt, he is just standing there", to which my wife says:  "That would be my husband."  At least she did not disown me, or provide the comment that this proves her long held belief that I am deaf.  I eventually did hear the bridge master's words, when there was a lull in the traffic.  

Me on a Dolomite Shelf at Cave Point

Of course, the small water craft traveling the channel did not have to stop, unless a sail boat needed the draw bridge to be up.  This can provide a people watching opportunity. I missed one such people watching opportunity, but luckily quickly heard about it in order to get the photo.   What I missed, but saw in the photo, was a young woman in a speed boat who was bent over the front of the boat and her derriere stuck up in the air, in, to put it mildly, and ill-fitting swim suit.  People on the bridge were aghast, at what they had seen, which made me take a photo.  I did not know what they had seen when taking the photo, but figured something on the boat drew their attention.  An elderly gentleman next to my wife yelled out to the young lady in the boat--"Shake it Baby!"  A picture is worth a thousand words, so let the following photo tell the story. Although, let me just say, with the west sun beating down as she headed east, she would have some nice red-hot buns.

Red Hot Buns

Red sky at night, sailor's delight.  Ships of old did not have the sophisticated weather equipment we have today.  Hence, why they would have created such witticisms based on their experiences. My final commentary is based on an observation I had while standing on the bridge with the bridge master apparently yelling at me to get off.   The Spanish entry, El Galeon, had arrived earlier in the day.  This ship is a 1:1 replica of an early 16th century Spanish galleon ship, which were the cargo ships of the day.  Some of course were captured and became a pirate ships.  When I think of a tall ship this comes to mind.  In any event, Sturgeon Bay is noted for its ship and yacht building, and what I noticed just beyond El Galeon was a large contemporary cargo ship under going some repair.  Past and present in one photo, showing how shipping has changed, and how the world has changed.

Spanish Galleon in front of Present Day Cargo Ship

Change is one constant of life on earth.  I saw change at the Lake Michigan waterfront at Cave Point, I saw someone who needed to change on a pleasure craft in Sturgeon Bay, and I saw the differences between past and present shipping in a tale of two ships.  That is why I studied, and continue to study, geography, as it is the interplay between man and nature.  The Spanish galleon ships were created to more efficiently transport large amounts of cargo across the ocean, and the machines of today allow much larger ships of metal to do the same chore.  Shipping, is representative of economic geography.  The woman in the ill-fitted swim suit also represents a change in human and cultural geography--tastes (or lack thereof in dress).  The cairns erected on the rock outcropping at Cave Point, is the interplay of physical and cultural geography--to the days when cairns marked something meaningful.  The increased water level is certainly a part of the basics of physical geography-weather and climate.  The physical forces of nature formed Door County. And the obtuse, clue-less guy in the green shirt not hearing the bridge master--that was clearly representative of behavioral geography.  

Geography of Place, Sturgeon Bay, WI Sidewalks