Weather Prognosticator

Four weeks ago, on February 2, Jimmy the Groundhog of Sun Prairie, WI made a prediction through the Mayor of Sun Prairie, that the area would enjoy an early spring.  The theory of groundhog predictions is that if it is sunny, the rodent will see its own shadow and hibernate for six more weeks.  If the shadow is not seen, the groundhog stays out of his hole and the area will see an early spring.  Of course, most of us put no faith in the prediction of a rodent, although it is one of those odd events that can make one help survive the winter. Although we don't have to put our stake in trying to have a furry animal predict our weather, we have highly trained scientists who rely on a variety of detailed computer models to make false predictions as well.

Jimmy biting Mayor Freund's ear

In Sun Prairie this year, even though it was  clear with a bright blue sky being seen on the horizon early that morning when Jimmy came forward to put forth his proclamation, the Mayor of that grand city noted that Jimmy had predicted an early spring.  This has set forth a series of events of which the Mayor may now regret.  First, the handler for Jimmy said the Mayor was wrong and it would be six more weeks of winter.  This was followed by the Economic Development Director of the city saying that no, it would be an early spring as even though with a clear sky and the sun coming up, Jimmy during his conversation said it would be an early spring.  Dispelling the legend of ground hog prognostication, Jimmy he said, takes a variety of factors into account, and the Mayor's prediction was accurate.  Legend in Sun Prairie has it that only the mayor can understand groundhog-speak,   Third, the web site for Jimmy indicates the following:  "As the mayor leaned in to hear Jimmy’s message, Jimmy nipped the mayor’s ear! Not serious, but enough to lend confusion to the event! The Mayor said Jimmy told him Early Spring, but since there was not a cloud in the sky… We’re pretty sure he misinterpreted it!" Yes, the rodent bit the ear of the Mayor, but more importantly the editor of the web site did stay on the message as set by the Economic Development Director. A startled Mayor may well have been shaken by the bite, and indicated the wrong thing, but not according to the Economic Development Director. Mayor Freund would become quite famous as the ear bite made national news. I recall seeing the "CBS Evening News" at 5:30 pm, where it was the second news story following the cold and snow out east. But,the turn of events of that day would last for two weeks, and beyond. The Mayor, who had been appointed to fill an unexpired term of another who left office, was in a primary election facing a former Mayor and a current member of the County Board. Wagging tongues had it that Mayor Freund would receive a boost out of all the local and national coverage of his ear having been bitten. There was no bump up although a bump down may have occurred as Mayor Freund placed third out of three candidates. Perhaps he was not well known beyond his aldermanic district, or the residents of that community do not like the direction the town is taking, or perhaps residents of that community do not like a person who clearly misinterpreted their spring prognosticating groundhog.

An animal only my nephew would love

Of course, what occurred that day may not be misinterpretation, but a matter of micro-geography. The Mayor clearly noted that Jimmy did not see his shadow, and hence would have an early spring. Beyond the mayor one can see blue sky. But the problem was that the Mayor was standing in front of a building which houses my sister-in-laws favorite place to hangout and confabulate--Beans N' Cream coffee house. The multi-story building was east of the Mayor as he stood in Cannery Square. Apparently those who set up the event never thought to make sure the Mayor was not in shadow of a building or other objects. Any student of geography would know that the sun rises in Sun Prairie about 7:12 am, so the sun is very low in the sky and long shadows will be produced. February 2 also happens to be about half way between the winter solstice and the vernal equinox. Where Jimmy was positioned, in building shadow, he would not see his own shadow, and the information passed to the Mayor by the Mr. Ed of the rodent population either before or after the ear bite recognized this fact. While Cannery Square is a fairly nice urban square, holding an event in shadow in front of my sister-in-laws favorite hangout obviously leads to confusion, and lost hope for a Mayor with a nibbled ear. I can think of a recent graduate of the University of Wisconsin in environmental studies and economics that may well be able to discern a better placement for the prognostication in Cannery Square other than in front of that coffee shop which blocks the rising sun. Other than Jimmy's handler, that former UW student is probably the only one who really likes that groundhog.

Photo of Jimmy giving his prediction to Mayor Freund.
If you look behind around the Mayor it is all in shadow, except for the blue sky in the distanced
and the sun shining on the Market Street diner which is west of the Mayor.

The Mayor and his fuzzy compatriot, it appears to me, is clearly in the shadow of Beans N' Cream and other buildings. As those of us in Dane County (as much of those in the Midwest and East Coast) have chattered our way through a cold February, some are perhaps cursing the groundhog, or at least its message. For example, of the twenty eight days in February, 14 or half of those days had low temperatures of zero or below. This, when the average high on February 2 is 28 and average low is 12, while at the end of the month the average high is 36 and low 19. Only two days in the month would surpass the average high temperature, and that was only by a degree or two. Cities out east are certainly cursing Jimmy's nemesis Punxsatawney Phil, who had predicted six more weeks of winter. If we have cold, at least we did not have to clean massive amounts of snow. Spring certainly has not yet sprung

My wife's artwork (photo by author)

Sun Prairie claims that Jimmy has an astounding record of success, but they provide no metrics as to how to say if it is an early spring.   Of course, the whole prognostication thing, of six more weeks, ends with spring beginning at about the time it normally would, at least according to the calendar.  The local weather man tell us that from their stand point spring starts March 1. Anyone who lives in the upper Midwest knows that is a great deal of bunk, and in fact, winter can last beyond the calendar date of the spring equinox.  Spring should not be judged by the calendar, or a weatherman, but how the weather feels. Are temperatures in late February and early March warmer than normal to give a feel of spring? to let us see robins, crocuses and emerging daffodils? Of long-lost snow and kite flying?  That is how to judge the arrival of spring.

If you want to judge spring by the equinox,
Sun Prairie should put spot lights behind Jimmy--to create shadow

With February being the shortest month, the weatherman's winter season is the shortest of the four in number of days, although it certainly can feel like the longest.  With the spring equinox coming March 20, we have about as much day light now as we have about October 11.  What does the weather hold for March?  NOAA's prediction for March-April-May has the Midwest with an equal chance of being above or below average temperatures.  They do not say average, but an equal chance of being above or below.  A nice way for a forecaster to hedge their bets--it is either going to be hotter or colder than normal.  More closely, as of today, weather.com, looking ten days out predicts March 11 to have a high of 47 degrees which is  6 degrees above the 41 degree average.  If this occurs, friends of Jimmy may well use this to say he was correct in his prediction of an early spring. That leaves us taking the weather day-by-day, and not putting much effort in long-term prognostications.

Some of my few readers may be wondering why a post on this rodent; I think it is to help have fun with a long winter.  But, no need to worry, next week I hope to write about an historical event that occurred on March 2 seventy years ago.  Until then, as my spouse wrote--Think Spring!

Unless otherwise noted all photos from Google Images.