Friday, January 8, 2016

It Wasn't the Play Calling

For decades the Green Bay Packers have been able to count on support from their fans. The teams between Lombardi and Holmgren were, to put it pleasantly, rather mediocre. But, the fans endeared. It would take the Packers 29 years before they would win a Super Bowl following their Super Bowl II victory. Support of the fans is even evident in away games, where some stadiums seemingly have more Packer fans than those for the home team. Fan support has allowed for a major increase in Packer facilities. Lambeau Field just completed another expansion and renovation this year, after having a major expansion and renovation completed in 2003. With its standing room only areas, stadium capacity is apparently second only to New Yorks’ Metlife Stadium for regular season capacity. The Packers are now looking to further increase their presence through acquisition of land to build a more robust full-time entertainment venue—the Ttiletown District. This district will include a large plaza, a four-star hotel, a health care facility; and of course it would not be Wisconsin without an expanded restaurant with its own brewpub. However, the Titletown District becomes meaningless unless the Packer organization can field a competitive team.
Proposed Titletown District
Source:  Google Images

Given the team’s performance over the last three months of the season, having lost six of their last ten games, including three at home, one can wonder if they actually have a competitive team. But for the Hail Mary pass at Detroit, it would be even worse. It is more than play calling as their offensive performance since Head Coach Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties has been lack-luster as well. Since the Lombardi era, the Packers have failed to produce consecutive championships, and only in the 1990’s returned to a consecutive Super Bowl. For over three months we hear the same words: the fundamentals need to be better, the team needs to play better. All generalities which are easier said than done, and if they are easily accomplished why have the issues not been corrected? The unsaid issue is poor player performance, which can be related to several factors. In some cases the players lack the natural ability, some may be playing with nagging injuries, and some after receiving a fat paycheck see their production fade. Yes, Jordy Nelson has been injured all season, but if he is the reason Aaron Rogers should provide his MVP awards to Nelson. The Packers lack the talent in the front office to any longer find the necessary talent to appropriately build the team, whether through the draft or by free agency. The front office has over paid players who a year or two later we find our now rather pedestrian. The team has had its share of injuries, but so too did the last Super Bowl squad. That last Packer Super Bowl team had a mantra of next man up, that mantra no longer works. Heck, even some starters lack proper ability. The head coach claimed at the beginning of the season that the offensive line is the best he has had. With 47 sacks, and a pass protection rank of 23 and even lower for the run game I hope he is no longer making that claim. The play of the line is integrated with play elsewhere. One sports columnist said that without Jordy Nelson, the Packers have the slowest receiving corps in the NFL. No wonder receivers can’t get open. That affects line play.
Lambeau Field
Source:  Google images
With slow receivers, teams now play man-to-man coverage and are able to load along the line of scrimmage with one safety back. This prevents the ability to run the ball, and allows more defenders the opportunity to blitz the quarterback on pass plays. The Packer offense is predicated on receivers being open at the end of the QB drop back, but this year they are not. It is a system, according one analyst, that uses isolation routes meaning the onus is on the receiver to use speed and technique to get open, but that is not occurring. The wide receivers lack the capability to get open. In fact, this season Davante Adams finished as the sixth lowest graded receiver in the NFL!  He is not a second or third string receiver, but a starter.  Of all receivers on the team, only Jones (brought in due to Nelson’s injury) had a positive grade. It is quite apparent that the Packer organization has not fit the players to the scheme, and they continue to run the same scheme.
 Green Bay v. Vikings Jan. 3, 2016
Notice how no receivers are open, and Rogers is almost out of time to throw
Source:  Peter Prisco, NFL Analyst from CBS Sports
Not accustomed to this, Rogers looks at coming pressure and misses the few opportunities available. Defensive pressure then gets to him. Rogers himself was sacked 46 times this past season, thirteen in the last three games, where he lost three fumbles (two for touchdowns) and threw two interceptions. Even the use of a two tightend set during the last Viking fame failed to assist the running game. Use of misdirection and screen or draw plays has also failed to provide suitable offensive production. Their coaching staff must realize this, but yet all we hear is the same old, same old. The Packer defense has never been one of the better units in the NFL for the past few years, and the more the defense is on the field, the more tired they get and production will drop. The three plays and out of the Packers offense has placed the defense on the field with little time to rest. The Packers are pathetic on third down efficiency. For the 2015 regular season the Packers ranked 28 of the 32 teams in third down efficiency. In the last three games their efficiency was even worse.
Packers at Arizona, here a receiver is open but A Rogers misses him
and instead thows an imcomplete pass to the receiver at the top of the image.
Source:  Peter Prisco, NFL Analyst from CBS Sports

Sports media types claim this team, not unlike the 2010 team, can make a run for the Super Bowl. After all, the argument goes, the 2010 team won the Super Bowl at the Jerry Dome (AT&T Stadium) by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers. Like the 2010 team, this team has to play away in at least two games to advance. The 2010 team was a 6th seed, this team a 5th seed. Both entered the playoffs with 10 wins and 6 losses. Yes, there are some similarities, but there are also glaring differences that the sports media overlooks. In 2010 the six Packer losses were all close games, with the total point difference of those six losses being less than 20 points. My goodness just two weeks ago, Dec 27, the 2015 Packers lost to Arizona by 30 points alone. Total point difference this year for the losses is 72. There are other differences as well. The once much vaunted Packer offense, which ranked 6th in overall offense in the 2014 season ended the 2015 regular season ranked 23rd. In 2010 the offense total rank was 9th—in the top ten as compared to the bottom ten this season. There is an old saying that defense wins championships, and as strong as the Packer offense was in 2010, the defense was even better as it ranked 5th overall. This year while the defense finished better than the offense, it still came in at a middling 15.
Titletown Entertainment District site plan
Source:  Google images

The point of all of this is that the personnel of the team is not where it needs to be, and as a result the production of the team is significantly decreased. The Titletown District may all turn out really nice, improve the area, but the Packers need to focus on their core business—football. They cannot enjoy living in the past. The mediocre nature of the team, I believe goes all the way to a front office more focused on brick and mortar development than the team on the field. It is a general manager who has, quite frankly blown the ability of the team to develop through the draft and make proper decisions for extended contracts for veterans. If Ted Thompson is still with the team after the end of the season, the Packer organization will have proved that they are taking their fans for granted. That they do not care about a winning product on the field. Five years ago, with its last Super Bowl win, the press and talking heads were praising Ted T. If he gets the praise for building a team, he should get the scorn for having failed to keep that team competitive. Yes, we Packer fans are resilient, and we are loyal. However, if you are at a game that is a loss you may just want to get home and not have a beer and dinner within the Titletown District. Few fans fork out money for sport apparel for a losing team. The Board of Directors need to focus the energy of the organization on its core product, so that there can be more titles to Titletown, and that the city, team, and fans do not only have to live dreaming of past glory.  After all, if another team surpasses the team in the number of titles, than the Titletown name is a farce.

Anyway, Go Pack Go!










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