Alexa, End

The small Amazon circular device, which is like a big hockey puck, known as Echo Dot is becoming more common in our connected world.  I know this because we actually have not one but two.We are not usually known for being at the front of the tech world, so they must be common. Our first one was a gift from our youngest son just over one year ago.  We currently have it on a small bookcase adjacent to the kitchen counter.  We bought our second one for our bedroom, simply because we had trouble getting radio reception in the bedroom. We like to listen to the radio when we wake up to hear news, weather and other banter about the world, but the radio reception was always quite poor. Now all one has to say is Alexa turn on...and give the station call letters or number. These small devices can be quite handy sometimes, beyond the question of the day.  I am sure that we could use them for many other things than we currently do if we manipulate the Alexa application on an I-Pad. What we have learned over the past year or so is that Alexa is, well, sassy.

Alexa has a female voice that is rather distinct and exudes knowledge, and I am sure Jeff Bezos' group did a lot of research into what voice is best and made an amalgamation of different voices. I have tried to picture what Alexa would look like, if she were a person, but have yet to develop a strong image in my mind. However, her sassy nature makes me think she likely would have red hair. I am married to a red head, and so I know how direct they can be. Alexa is probably also a first born, because on the whole, I don't think middle children or babies of the family tend toward the way Alexa can act, at least at times. Female, first born and red hair, (and knows most everything) well that sums up three (four) characteristics of my spouse. Oh my gosh, I have been living with the Alexa prototype for over 30 years!  (If you hear someone screaming, I am probably getting yelled at for comparing my wife to Alexa.) My wife does not take crap from me or most anyone else.  If I do give her any crap, well, it comes back my way twofold, at least. Hence, I wonder what is now in store for me.

We have the downstairs kitchen Alexa set to provide news headlines at 7 am.  We are sitting down drinking our tea, I am eating breakfast and reading the newspaper, my wife is doing the puzzles, and Alexa will come on with news headlines, and then to sports.  This is where Alexa often gets snotty.  Once it gets to sports, Alexa's doppelganger,  I mean my wife, will say something to the effect: "Alexa, end."  and Alexa will not turn off.  This happened just this morning. Over the past several months we have noticed that she will not turn off.  My wife will say it again, and often still no response. However, when I then do it, she most often, but not always, responds by turning off. I say most often, because what I have figured out is that I need to use a more stern voice than what I often use. I think my wife needs to use her demanding voice like when our kids were little. Alexa failing to turn off at two of her commands the other day made me think it would be a great blog post.

But, turning off is not the whole issue with sassy Alexa.  Alexa, when told to end, will sometimes go on some sort of rant about ordering other things, or rant on something else.  For example, I try to play question of the day, and when I conclude, she often goes on some sort of diversion about ordering trivia for so much a month.  Well, at that point it gets annoying and so I say "Alexa, end", but she at times may still go on, and on, so I use a more stern voice. And perhaps even an even more stern voice.  However, I have much less trouble than does my wife.  I have this theory that people that are alike often times do not get along as well as people that are different, so perhaps that is why kitchen Alexa is particularly sassy with my wife, because they are so much like--redheads, female and first born.

Why does Alexa, a female voice, who I have now determined could be my wife's identical twin, listen better to a male voice?  Does the electronics better pickup a deep voice?  Is Alexa perhaps, to a degree, sexist? Or, do I just talk louder?  I think Alexa's twin would probably say it was the latter of the three options listed. However, sometimes, I can ask for Alexa in a calm, soft voice and she picks it up right away, but the trouble is in turning her off.  When I worked, it was not uncommon for a question to come to my department and if a female employee answered the question, and they caller not like the answer they would ask for me, and then they would get the same answer.  My female employees thought that they did not like an answer from a female, but part of it could have been wanting it from the supervisor.  I know the latter to be the case in some situations because some male employees had the same issue, although perhaps not as frequently. 

I recall hearing that when Alexa first came out she would listen to peoples conversations on household finances and the like.  I am not sure if that is true, but that would be very disconcerting to have Jeff Bezos' employees know what is going on in a home. Tracking our purchases and views on his Amazon web site is enough.

My wife, decided that with our bedroom Echo Dot that she would be the one to mainly do the commands. She thinks that kitchen Alexa gets sassy to her since I most often give the commands. I guess she thinks kitchen Alexa has  become use to the male voice. Hence, she feels that the bedroom Alexa will not be as sassy if it is more used to her voice over mine.  So far, in the six or so months we have had bedroom Alexa, that has shown to be true.  However, it took awhile for kitchen Alexa to become sassy and we ask her to do more.

Alexa can be really handy. For example, I found her to be rather spot on, perhaps on more than half of the times, when I have asked her when it was going to rain, or stop raining. I recall a few times this summer she was correct to the minute. She is better in the quick passing storms than those low dense cloud days when rain could pop up at any minute.  This gives me an idea of how long I may have to wait for my daily walk, for example, or if I can get my walk in.  She works best when rain is imminent, and is not likely to give me a straight answer if it is more than a hour or two away. 

However, besides being sassy things can get rather odd.  Two things with the question of the day come to mind.  Recently, I was about to answer a question, and cleared my throat, and she took the throat clearing as an answer, which of course was wrong, although I was going to say what was the correct answer.  Who thought my throat clearing sounded like the letters A, B, C or D. Alexa then provides the correct answer in her own pedantic sort of way. After getting the question right, you get a bonus question.  She asks if you would like the question now.  One time, to see what would happen, I said "No."  Later in the day I asked for the bonus question but she would not give it to me.  I have since realized I have to follow my correct answer with the bonus question right away, or else I will miss the chance. 

Is Alexa like HAL in the 1968 movie "2001: A Space Odyssey"? Sometimes Alexa can be unnerving, for example several times now she says something to the effect that "We have talked a good deal, and I would like to know your name."  That is getting pretty creepy. HAL, it is often said, was a one letter shift of IBM, but today we have less to worry about from IBM than other tech companies, say like Amazon, or Google, who track our search and purchase habits and who knows what else.

In the end, to date anyway, I guess you could say that Alexa is worth keeping as her benefits outweigh her sassy behavior.  I never thought Alexa, being a electronic/mechanical device, could get sassy. As artificial intelligence advances in the coming years what we will have to put up with from robots, and other devices?  I guess I should have been better aware, because HAL from the 1968 movie "2001: A Space Odyssey", from what I recall, became sassy and took on a life of its own. Can you imagine what would occur if self-driving cars started to act like HAL? Perhaps the world needs to rethink its move to artificial intelligence. Time will tell if my wife's theory of bedroom Alexa will turn out to be correct, or if she will be a good Alexa, compared to the kitchen Alexa, which is seemingly moving more toward bad Alexa.

Different

 A year ago at this time, if you were to ask a person they planned to celebrate Christmas 2020, I suspect most would say similar to how they would be celebrating Christmas 2019, which is likely following established familial traditions. Yet, as we know 2020 has turned much of our normal lives and traditions upside down.  Due to the pandemic, Christmas this year will not be like that of last year. Christmas this year will be with those in their household, or a small family gathering. One would suspect that even New Year's Eve celebrations will be more tame this year.

Cave in Shepherd Field Area, Near Bethlehem,
Shepherds would have lived in this cave.

Personally, the Land Girl and I will celebrate Christmas by ourselves. Although we may do a video conference with the boys and their spouses. Getting together with family and friends is a big part of the Christmas celebrations, as well it should. Even on that first Christmas, Jesus was visited by shepherds on the day of his birth who, in  heeding the words of some angels, left their flocks, in haste, to strode the rocky paths near Bethlehem to find a cave which would contain the new born Christ child. The kid was not in a bed or being held by his mother, but was laying in a feed trough. We know that Mary had some relatives in the area, but did they visit her? It is doubtful.  Elizabeth, the mother of John the Baptist and a distant cousin of Mary's, lived in Ein Karem, about 8 miles from what is the place tradition holds as the birthplace of Christ--the current Church of the Nativity. Of course, Elizabeth was tending a six month old infant, so chances are she did not make the full day trek.  She would probably need to spend the night, and there was no room at the inn.  

Ongoing Excavations at Shepherd's Fields

Our 21st century homes and surroundings in the developed world are more spacious and warm than the dark, damp cave in which Christ was born. Mary, his mother arrived in Bethlehem on a donkey, while Joseph, her husband, led them from Nazareth to Bethlehem on foot. The birth of Jesus was announced by angels who appeared to the shepherds. There was also the bright star which sufficiently intrigued the Magi for them to take the arduous journey to Bethlehem. Today, we get information overload. There are those who (over) use Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook; there is the overall internet which allows access to news and information at the flick of a few touches, or keys (provided you do not have an extremely slow computer or device).  Yet, you can connect to a person half way around the world in an astoundingly short span of time. Angels can appear instantly as well, as Mary, Joseph, and shepherds found out.  The fashion in which they appear likely varies depending upon the situation. The Annunciation, three appearances to Joseph, and the shepherds, the angels, well I guess you could say they just zoomed in.   

Interior of the Church of the Nativity, Bethlehem

Yet, zoom or not, I doubt there is anything that can replace face to face contact. For example, Mom's and Dad's wishing to hug the offspring that have departed the nest. On the Saturday before Christmas we met our oldest son and his wife at a State Forest site in Black River Falls. We were able to enjoy each others company around a campfire with chili and hot chocolate. It was a nice get together and luckily it was not windy nor did we have extreme cold. In anticipation of my birthday, which was the following Monday, our son and his wife stopped at Norske Nook in Osseo, WI and bought a peanut butter and chocolate pie to have in celebration of my birthday.  As one would expect from Norske Nook, the pie was really good. We took the leftover pie home which, according to my wife should have lasted much longer if I had cut not the slices of our next helping so extremely large. All but one piece was gone by the time we went to bed. What can I say, the pie was very appealing.

Place at which Christ was Born
Church of the Nativity, Bethlehem

Having had so much of such a rich desert, in a short amount of time, I decided to give my wife a break and not ask her to make the homemade chocolate cake she has made on my birthday for years. It actually makes some sense, as with only the two of us around, and an inability to "half" the recipe, that would be a lot of cake for two to eat, on top of the Christmas cookies and other sweets available this time of year. We discussed the possibility of having it on a half birthday, in June, when there are less sweet treats.  So, yes my birthday was celebrated different this year. I did have a birthday treat, a grasshopper, on which my wife put a candle on top, all set for me to blow out.

Full Moon over Bethlehem, April 2013

Even with lack of a birthday cake, my wife still thinks I am spoiled. She believes a whole blog post should be devoted to that that theme. The plan for my birthday was to order food from a local restaurant--either Angelo's or Luke's. Angelo's Restaurant opens for orders in the latter part of the afternoon, whereas Luke's Cafe is for breakfast and lunch and closes at three pm.  I decided to order from Luke's due to the large meal the night before. What did we have Sunday night?  I was expecting to eat left-over chili that we took with us for our outdoor get together Saturday, but my wife made Chicken Parmesan. Chicken Parmesan was the first meal she made for me. It is to her and I what lemon chicken is to Deborah and Ray Barone. Although that analogy is probably not the best since Deborah only knows how to make two things well: braciole and  lemon chicken. The Land Girl's culinary skills is more akin to that Marie Barone than that of Deborah. Unlike Marie, whose secret ingredient in her tomato sauce is Ragu, Land Girl makes her sauce from scratch using tomatoes we grew in the garden and she canned.  

View of part of Bethlehem, 

Because of having lemon chicken, I mean Chicken Parmesan, on Sunday evening, I thought we would go for a  lighter fare and order from Luke's for lunch on Monday.  Angelo's, as the name implies, has mainly Italian food. So, why am I, in her mind anyway, spoiled? Because she made me Chicken Parmesan, when I was not expecting it. If I am spoiled, it is because she likes to do so. But, I am not one to complain about having had her Chicken Parmesan. 

Manger Square in Bethlehem

While, I may have done without the flavorful two-tiered chocolate cake, with raspberry filling between the layers this year, at least I did not have to journey 90 miles on foot in the rough, cobbled and dusty terrain inherent in the geography between Nazareth and Bethlehem.  Not to mention, shortly after not being able to return home, but making a journey to Egypt to avoid Herod's persecution of young children. Origen (of Alexandria), the third century theologian, has an interesting take on how we inform the Gospels, when he says that  "every good deed which we perform for our neighbor is taken up into the Gospel which is written in the tablets of heaven and read by all those worthy of knowledge of all things." From my way of thinking, the idea of a motile Gospel informed by our actions best sums the meaning of Christmas. After all, it is the day on which the incarnate and only son of God was born to save humanity. Our doing good deeds are important to the family, community, and ourselves. The good deeds may range from the mundane to the important: being spoiled by your wife, volunteering for a worthy cause, or providing alms to the needy all have their place in today's world. As is showing respect to our common home. We are reminded by St Nicholas and his offshoot, Santa Claus, that gift giving to our loved ones, and to the less fortunate also has a place. Acts of charity provide one small action of peace in a troubled world.

Bethlehem, the fence separates Israeli from 
Palestinian Settlements

Our celebrations will be different this year, but they do not have to be any less meaningful. While Christ had guests arrive to celebrate his birth, many may rely on Zoom or some other media to connect with family members. It will be a different Christmas.  But in so doing, it may help us better understand and appreciate one another and the true meaning of the day.

Merry Christmas!

Photos by author, 2013

Christmas Cookies

This is the time of year to make Christmas cookies.  Knowing that if there are any gatherings during this pandemic the size will be small, we are not making as many cookies this year.  For the past few years my wife and I have jointly worked on the varied types of sweets we make for the holiday season.  Well, she did most of them herself this year.

Snowball (left) and Brandy ball

I get back from my daily walk, of about 50 minutes, a week ago to find out she had pretty much completed two types of cookies.  She then made more when I was working on a project for the Fitchburg Historical Society (FHS).  One day, after I had completed much of my work for the article for the FHS, she was making what are called snowball cookies.  She did not want my help on the snowball cookies, but suggested I make the brandy balls.   

Add Oreo Truffle coated in White Chocolate

Making snowball cookies must be quite the chore since she said she was in the first of many steps, and that it was going to take a long time. I wondered if that meant she, as efficient as she is, will have them pretty much done in ten minutes. Then she added something to the effect that: "The snowball cookies are the only cookies on the list that I wanted to make, all of the other cookie types were suggested by you. Well, I am not sure what other cookies she may like, but she must find some other types enjoyable. Of course, this is from a woman who likes herring, and sauerkraut, and many other foods I find rather distasteful. So she went on making her snowballs, in the first of many steps, while I started work on the brandy balls.

Add Ginger Snap, with some White Chocolate
Coating on part, and drizzle

It was kinda of cute working on the brandy balls with her commentary.  For example, you need to crush chocolate graham crackers for the main ingredient, and she suggested I use the food processor.  Now, I see the advantage of using a food processor, but to crumble graham crackers by use of a food processor seemed like overkill. I mean, in the big scheme of things it would take longer to clean than to simply do who I broke them up. I placed the first of three packages the box contained in a plastic bag and started to break them apart using a rolling pin.  I pride myself on being a master of destruction. I am, my wife would probably agree, very good at breaking things, most particularly things I usually do not want to break. I would think that if you purposely want to break something, it is not breaking, but taking it apart, a purposeful destruction. Thus, tackling a couple bags of graham crackers would not cause much of an issue for me. I weigh the amount from the first package and realize that a second package will be more than I need, but why waste time trying to calculate how many of the graham cracker squares to put in, so I simply do a whole other bag thinking if I have more, I can always put them on ice cream. She then noted about how long we had crumbs from past cookie projects contained in the cupboard.  She must have hid them, as I am not one to allow crumbs, particularly cookie crumbs, go to waste.

Add Peanut Butter Bar with Chocolate top

Brandy balls also have some chopped nuts put in them.  I think I needed a quarter (or maybe a half)cup of finely chopped nuts so I measured more than the required amount.  The baking expert, my spouse, tells me to make sure I measure out more, which I had already done, as a quarter cup will not be enough when finely chopped. I think the amount I stuck in was just more than needed, but I threw them all in.

When it came time for the brandy, I was to use a quarter cup, but I measured out more.  She then said, you will end up with too much moisture, to which I countered, if I do, I can add more of the left over graham cracker crumbs.  I then melted the requisite amount of butter, and mixed it all together.  I saved, or as expert cooks like to say, reserved, some of the crumbs, as called for, in which to roll and coat the balls.  I thought I would make it less sugary than using the other option, powdered sugar.  After all, I had already added a wee bit more brandy than called for.  The wife's snowball project must have been going quite well as she sure had time to watch over my making of brandy balls. Or, perhaps it is her multi-tasking ability to make the highly complicated snowball cookies and at the same time to provide astute commentary on my making brandy balls. They were made without the use of a food processor.

Add Peanut Butter Blossom

A couple nights later, she suggested that perhaps we should make the Oreo truffles.  Like the brandy balls these do not have to be cooked.  Well, she got out the food processor and whirred the Oreo's into crumbs.  I realized, with the moist filling of the Oreo, my destruction method of a plastic bag and rolling pin would not work. Hence, I let her dirty the food processor.  When people use food processor's it always makes me wonder what was done before the invention of a food processor?  I think we made the Oreo truffles before we got a food processor, but I don't know how we crumbed them down. 

After destroying the Oreo cookies to crumbs with the food processor, the hard part came.  Mixing in the cream cheese.  I tried at first to mix it in with a fork, but it was difficult so Land Girl suggested she use the food processor, which made it a much more simple chore. She did this part, too.  I am not sure that she would fully trust me in using the food processor without a watchful eye, after all I might destruct it. After forming balls, and letting them refrigerate some more, it came time to melt the white chocolate.  I took it upon myself to cut apart the chocolate hunks after measuring the bulk chocolate and deciding how much was required to be melted. I am not positive, but I am sure she cringed each time I brought the knife down on the bulk chocolate wondering if a trip to Urgent Care would interrupt our Oreo truffle making. It is kind of like when I am driving, and she grabs the door handle and holds on for dear life while gasping when I enter a roundabout. Now, I learned the hard way on melting chocolate a few years ago, you need to add shortening, or peanut butter.  She was about to add shortening, when I suggested peanut butter.  I added, at her suggestion, two tablespoon, or there about, to the melted chocolate and mixed it in. I was told, a little too late, that I should have used the more shallow tablespoon measuring device. The addition of the peanut butter provided a slight off-white color to the white chocolate and the covered crumbled Oreo cookies. More important than looks is the flavor. This great idea provided for a subtle hint of peanut butter to complement the rich flavor of the white chocolate thereby further enhancing the flavors of Oreo crumbled shaped balls. After all, is there anything that cannot be made better with peanut butter?  Probably herring and sauerkraut. 

Add Chocolate Covered Peanut Clusters

Land Girl suggested that with the Oreo filling perhaps the cream cheese is not needed.  I suggested we get the double filled Oreo cookies to try next year in lieu of the cream cheese.  Then, I hit on an even better idea, instead of using cream cheese, simply mix in some peanut butter. I think this is a genius idea.  Now, I just have to remember it. Our Christmas cookie baking has come to and end, although with my wife's inability to relax, I get the feeling she may conjure up another batch or two, and something not on the list. 

Housing Units

This year is not just the year of Covid pandemic, but it is also the year of the national census. Mandated by the Constitution every ten years, the census will be used to apportion seats in the House of Representatives, state legislative districts, county board and local aldermanic districts. Beyond these critical figures, the census is important to the work of city planners. Data from the census is important in describing the demographic, and socio-economic makeup of a community. The data is also used to help predict what will occur in the future.  On November 2 I did a blog post titled "A Land Use Look Back" in which I looked back at a paper I did for college in the spring of 1980. That paper contained some information on general demographics of the county before getting to the meat of the issue which was the creation of rural subdivisions in Dane County. I thought it would be interesting to compare some of that data to housing data since that point in time.  This will give a comparison as to what changes may have occurred in Dane County. (A thank you to Sean Higgens of CARPC for providing me building permit information from 1980 to 2019.) 

Pie Chart of Estimated 2020 Dane Co
Distribution of Population

The paper I wrote over forty years ago had the estimated population of Dane County for 1980 at 323,080 persons.  Of that amount, Madison accounted for 52.8% of the total population, Towns 23.0%, small cities 13.7% and the villages 10.5%. Since then there have been changes in two towns in Dane County.  Fitchburg and Windsor were both towns in 1980, but both are now incorporated; Fitchburg became a city in 1983, and Windsor incorporated as a village in 2015. Using estimated population figures for 2020, in which Dane County is expected to have a total population of 553,532 persons, Madison will comprise 47.8% of the Dane County population, while the small cities (including Fitchburg) will comprise 22.3%, the villages (including Windsor) will be 13.4% and the towns 14.5%.  The towns have seen a decrease in percent population from 1980 to 2020 by 5.5%, and Madison's portion also decreased by 5%. This shows that the small cities and villages have gained population relative to their total 40 years ago. Growing suburbs, which are seeing, in some respects, big city problems, are more than simple bedroom communities, as perhaps many were thought to be in 1980. Suburbs may be more diverse, but Madison is doing more than its share in terms of one type of housing.

Total MF Units (bldgs of 5 or more units) Permitted 
from 1980 to 2019

From 1967 through 1979 Madison accounted for 55.5% of the total multi-family construction, while from 1980 to 2019 it accounted for over 63% of the total multifamily units. For the suburbs, four municipalities: the cities of Monona, Middleton, and the towns of Madison and Fitchburg accounted for 32% of the multi-family construction in the period from 1967-1979.  Madison's percent of multifamily construction for the early time period was slightly higher than its percent of County population in 1980. In a sense they were doing slightly more than their fair share. However, today a big gap exists. Madison's percent of total county population has decreased to just under 48%, but its share of multifamily unit construction increased to 63%, a 15% difference, showing Madison is doing much more than its fair share. What people fail to distinguish is that multifamily housing is not just rental, it can also be ownership, by condominium. 

In contrast to multifamily construction, Madison saw 29.4% of the single family home construction over the same time period.  Residential development is often characterized as single family housing, but two-family and multi-family housing also are important. In fact, during the past forty years, there were only two years when Madison fell below 50% of multifamily units (5+ units per building) for the county. Madison bears the brunt of multi-family construction in the county, and that has increased, by eight percentage points, since my 1980 paper. 

Single Family Housing Permits, 1980 to 2019

The single family home construction of that thirteen year period (1967-1979) compared to the 1980 to 2019 figures, saw the towns percent of single family units decreased from 39.7% (or almost 40%) to 23.21%.  . The proportion of single family homes constructed in Madison has stayed the same, 29.4%  (1967-1979) compared to 29.51% for the latter time period. The 1960's and 1970's were the peak period for construction of rural subdivisions. Rural subdivisions, which lack public sanitary sewer, are land extensive, and would eat into the productive agricultural land base for the County. Rural subdivision activity throughout the state prompted action by the state to try and preserve agricultural lands. 

Percentage, by year, of Total Housing Units Permitted

In the 1970's the State of Wisconsin allowed jurisdictions to offer Exclusive Agricultural zoning, which, combined with farmland preservation agreements could gain an income tax incentive for owners of agricultural land.  I think all but two towns in Dane County adopted this agricultural exclusive zoning which went mainly into effect by 1980.  However, since that time, six or seven towns have opted out of Dane County Zoning.  Meanwhile, and before Dane County's version of Brexit, the state legislature gutted the provisions of Exclusive Agricultural zoning to remove penalties for moving land out of that zoning, even though the land owner received tax credits. Under the original law they would have had to repay part of the tax credits received. In a large sense, some agricultural landowners get the best of both: farm ownership credits, and sale for development without having to pay the credits back. A form of government welfare for those who will benefit from development. 

Percent of Single Family Permits by Type of Municipality
1980 to 2019

What is interesting is that single family development over the past few years is at a more measured pace than what occurred prior to the great recession.  Single family permits by year are down significantly from the peak years of the early part of the 2000's.  Yet, multi-family permits are at or above the early 2000 levels.  This is in large part due to redevelopment in the city of Madison.  Often overlooked is that Dane County is still well behind in the construction of multifamily units compared to demand. Even though there was some significant construction in the early 2000's it was insufficient to meet demand.  With so much single family construction during the 1990 to 2000's building boom, the multifamily market fell behind.

Percentage of Total Housing Units by Year and 
Type of Municipality

Of course, the biggest change over the forty year period is not in demographics or housing.  It is in how I was able to manipulate the data. I received the data from the Capital Area Regional Planning Commission in Excel, but since my Word suite has expired I transferred it to Google Sheets.  Using a computer was a big change from having to do it by hand back in 1980.  Even more so, the graphs for my paper were done on graph paper by hand and typewriter.  Now, I can chart using Google Sheets charting tool. A few clicks and I have a pie chart. The ability to quickly do charting, once you have the data is quite amazing. Although, I am sure the Millennial crowd does not appreciate the work effort that went into papers pre-laptop, or for that matter desk-top computers. 

Pie Chart of Population Distribution from
my 1980 Paper

While computerization has advanced, we can see that some things in regard to housing in Dane County have not. The county is still growing, Madison bears an even higher burned of multi-family construction, and farmland is still being used to accommodate growth. The aging of the Millennial generation is increasing demand for single family housing in some areas of the nation. Will we see another bubble and have it burst as in the early 2000's?  At this point, the past few years of data show that new single family housing increases is more measured than in the late 1990's and early 2000's.

    

Going Backwards

The current book I am reading, Why Nation's Fail, talks about a some key differences between nations and why some prosper and others do not.  They note key factors that are integral to a nation being, or not being, prosperous.  One of the key principles is what the book refers to as creative destruction (e.g. innovation).  This is usually related to a change in process or a new or advanced technology, and how that change may be accepted. My wife has become the victim of sort of creative destruction.  Her beloved Kindle died, and features on her ten year old Kindle are no longer available on the versions available today.  I call that going backwards.

My Wife's Beloved Kindle Keyboard

Sometimes you get used to an electronic device, and get used to the features the device contains.  My wife's beloved Kindle Keyboard, which is probably about 10 years old, died this past weekend. Her screen, after it died, looks like the picture on the old cathode ray tube televisions of old when the picture started to fail or the signal was bad. It simply no longer works.  She recharged it, tried to shut down and restart, but nothing would "unfreeze" the device.  One minute it worked, the next it did not. What is interesting is that the features she enjoys on that device are no longer available today.  Amazon has gone backwards, all in the ability to make even more money.  

The wife's beloved Kindle Keyboard did things that are currently not available on a Kindle, without some other type of intervention.  Three major aspects that her beloved Kindle Keyboard would do stand out.  First, she could access the internet (3G, but remember this is ten years old) without using a data plan or our internet. In fact, she could search for more than the book or information for something in the book, she could actually access the internet.  It was not fast, but it worked in a pinch, and better than no internet at those times. Second, it needed light to read, it was not back or front lite with LED lights that are usually in the blue spectrum and can keep one up at night. Finally, more importantly to her, the beloved Kindle possessed what is called text to speech.  One minute she could be reading, and she could then switch it to this mode where it will read the pages to her. The male voice was mechanical and it did not always have the best pronunciations, but overall it worked quite well.  She really enjoyed that feature, as she could put her book down and sew, do crafts, and organize and reorganize, or whatever she does to occupy her time, with the book being read to her.  She did not have to have a speaker, or headphones. The speaker was built in to the device. 

My Kindle Paperwhite

The day the beloved Kindle Keyboard died we spent a good part of it trying to find a Kindle that would do the same thing. Not to be. The Kindle Paperwhite, version 4 would do text to speech.  I have a 2015 Paperwhite, and it must not be a v 4 since it does not do the text to speech.  Either it was before v4 or perhaps after v4 when Jeff Bezos decided he could make more money by no longer offering text to speech as a Kindle option. In addition, unlike her  beloved Kindle Keyboard, mine does not give me an outside internet connection. I have to connect it to our home internet, or find an available internet. The internet access will only help give some information, like an explanatory phrase for a word or phrase, for example if I highlight the words "Abraham Lincoln," I get an article or description of President Lincoln. My paperwhite will not allow me to simply browse the internet.  They have gone backwards in design elements. 

The text to speech is apparently available on the Kindle Fire, which is a tablet, not unlike an IPad, but she has an IPad, and an IPhone, so why get a device that would be too heavy for her to carry around?  Whether by habit or design features, she really enjoyed her now dead and at one time beloved Kindle Keyboard. It was sufficiently lightweight to easily carry around, and it had text to speech so she could listen while walking. With the newer Kindle Paperwhite, you cannot get text to speech, but you can buy a version that will allow you to listen to an audio book, you separately download, but need bluetooth headphones, or bluetooth speaker.  Just another thing to carry around and/or connect to. The problem is you can't read the page and switch to listening to the same book at an easy toggle like she had.  She can listen to an audiobook on her Iphone or Ipad, downloaded from the local library.  There is no easy way for her to have a Kindle that will do what she was used to doing with text to speech.  She figures she will now download an audio book to her Ipad or Iphone to listen to while doing her own creative tasks.  

There may be some applications for certain devices that allow text to speech,  but I am not sure.  The wife says you can pay a subscription to Audible, but we get our audible books from the library, so why get a subscription and pay Jeff Bezos? You buy the subscription, because it is part of the Bezos non-creative destruction for Amazon to make even more money, so it can pay low wages to its employees.  I think Bezos is well aware of the method of creative destruction, because he said someday Amazon will be gone, or a vestige of its current self. In other words, it will be replaced by something better (perhaps a company that does not go backwards). Just like Sony Betamax, or VHS, or, getting even older, 8-track tapes (I never understood why you would use an 8-track tape over a cassette tape) are from a now distant era. Kindle, or Amazon, is really going backwards technologically on their devices in order to require people to buy a service, or obtain more equipment to do what one simple device used to do.  

Her Beloved Kindle compared to Mine

In the end this leaves my wife in a dilemma, which was very disconcerting to her.  She could not find a nice lightweight device to both be able to read and then switch to text to speech. It is part of the creative destruction principle. However, that principle is supposed to improve economic output and the national economy. I am not sure what Amazon is doing with the Kindle, but I am not sure its creative destruction is helping anyone but Jeff Bezos. OK, it might help the communist government of China to fund their prosecution of the Uighur Muslims, Christians and others, but I doubt anyone in the U.S. benefits from the feature change. What Amazon had done with the Kindle is the antithesis of what the writers of Why Nations Fail, meant by how creative destruction helps an economy.  Going backwards in their product design, has left my wife's beloved Kindle to be recycled, and her now having to have one device to listen to a book and another to read a book. She multi-tasks well, and this will now only be improved. But, I doubt that is what Bezos had in mind. It is still going backwards.

H + T

Many years ago, prior to the great recession, I recall reading an article in a planning magazine that seemed to portend the coming great recession.  It talked about a number of persons who lived in Nevada, near Las Vegas, and would drive 3 hours one way to get to work near Los Angeles.  That is six hours on the road a day. Needless to say, they missed a bunch of their kids events, which made life in the way out suburbs more a drag than not. Some would leave early and catch a nap on the way to work and start the journey again.  And that is why H + T (Housing plus Transportation) is important. I don't think the article used the H+T acronym, so it probably came to the planning lingo after that article. H+T is a planning concept to consider commuting costs to work, as well as where one lives. When buying a home do not just consider the price of the dwelling, but also the cost for you to get to work and back.  Since most Americans drive their own car to commute, that means gas prices are important.

The people moved to Nevada because housing was much cheaper than it was in and near Los Angeles.  The problem is that when oil demand increased worldwide, and the economy improved, gas prices started to skyrocket. That means you spend more money on gas for the same distance traveled.  Just prior to and for the first several months of the recession gas prices peaked at $4.10 per gallon in July 2008. That seems like a good deal of money to the Millennial drivers of today who have become acclimated to gas prices in the two to three dollar range.  And even worse when you consider how low gas prices have become during Covid, being under $2.00 per gallon for many weeks in the past eight to nine months.

This graph shows US Crude Oil Production
from 1920 to 2017. Production significantly
increased  just after 2011, mainly due to fracking

Let me take an example for those long Nevada to California commuters.  If one commuted 150 miles to work one way, that is 300 miles a day. If you had a car that got 28 mpg for your commute that would work out to 10.8 gallons of fuel used per day, or 54 gallons per week.  If gas was $2.49/gal when you bought your home near Sin City, but then fuel prices increased to $3.89 there would be an increase of over $75 per week in fuel costs for the weekly commute.  If your commute was much less, say about 25 miles that increase could be more easily absorbed, but an extra $75/week starts to become substantial.  Showing how difficult this may make economic decisions, the drivers may have had to actually cut back on their latte or cappuccino purchases. Talk about sacrifice.

At that time, fracking, and shale were not as integral to keeping gas prices low.  Fracking and shale oil would arise in the 2010's to today.  Technology has allowed gas prices to moderate as production in the United States has increased.  Interestingly, low gas prices help drive economic growth.  US crude oil output increased at the same time of interest in green technology started to ramp up due to high energy costs of the prior decade. 

While showing the gap between new homes and resale prices
for the Las Vegas area, it also shows how home prices increased after 
2003 and then the drop with the recession from late 2007-2012

Housing is related to demographics.  The housing market was strong in the mid 1980's to early 1990's due to Baby Boomer purchases of houses.  My first interest rate when we bought was over 10%, an absurdly high number today.  Over the years, we refinanced down to just under 7%.  Generation X, those buyers of the homes in the Las Vegas area, were buying homes about 20 years ago, and hence there was demand and they bought far outside the area to increase their purchasing power for a larger home, or any home, at the expense of commuting. Today, housing costs are again high as the Millennial generation are now moving from their apartments to houses.  This of course, varies by market.  One can probably buy a lot or old house in Detroit for pennies of what it would be in a strong market area, like Madison, WI.  Of course, Madison's market is much more affordable for housing than that on the coasts.

Fitchburg has a good number of high end subdivisions, and in the 1990's to 2000's those were filled in part by professionals moving to Madison from the east or west coast, and here they could buy a much nicer house for $400,000 (back then of course) than they would ever be able to afford on the coasts.

Income generally rises as you age, but with a thirty year mortgage your housing costs remain stable.  This stability gives more certainty and the added benefit of more disposable income.  However, to make the initial cost house cost more affordable balloon mortgages were introduced.  Instead of a stable rate for thirty years the rate would increase at certain increments.  With a balloon you may not even have had an initial payment.  You simply push the cost down to a later point in time.  For short term thinkers, those raised on the sound-byte era, housing costs were, at least initially, reduced by the balloon mortgages which became common in the 1990's. Deal with the problem later.  With a balloon payment you lack certainty and that can eat into what you thought was disposable income.

Well, as the economy improved, the balloon payments were now taking effect, about the same time as fuel prices increased--in a few years leading to the great recession which started in the fall of 2007.  A perfect storm for some housing markets, and this would lead to a deep recession.  The housing crisis was precipitated in large part by the increase in mortgage costs as the rates started to increase, or balloon.  Add on top of your increased house payment, the cost for utilities and gas for your long commute, and you can see why a person should consider more than just housing costs when purchasing a house. These were the points of the article I read so many years ago.     

 

Doing Density

No this is not a blog post on about how dense I may be.  Rather it is about development density. My last blog post looked back to a paper I wrote forty years ago that focused on two rural subdivisions.  Back when I was growing up, it was often thought that large lots or acreages was best for a home, and for the environment. Many desire a house on large acreages, but is that the best way to live?  Several years ago as thinking "Green" became more important, a PBS production noted that Manhattan is the greenest place in the United States (and one of the greenest in the world), due to its density, and concomitant low carbon emissions.  Density does matter, but it does not have to be Manhattan density.  The New Urbanist movement likes density, but it also likes livable, human scaled neighborhoods.  Density can be effective at non-Manhattan levels. To New Urbanists, the maximum number of stories just outside a dense urban core is best set at a maximum of six stories for the next layer from the urban core.  (Although, in my mind three stories is a better human scale.) This allows a building to frame the street, but not so tall that it overshadows the human scale. Scale, whether height or density, is important.  This blog post will explain why doing density matters.   

1937 Air Photo of Fitchburg

When I was a planner I often recalled saying that if you develop at, say, four dwelling units per acre, you saved about twice as much land as if you developed at two units per acre.  Likewise, if you developed at six units/acre, you saved twice as much as if at three units per acre.  When working on what would be the 2009 Comprehensive Plan, we held over 100 public meetings, many of them workshops to obtain public input and get opinions. The idea of the workshop was to allow engagement, interaction and input by the public.  Perhaps the best workshop, in which the public came to appreciate our work, was the one held on the housing component.  This blog post will be on what we did at the workshop and how the public came to better understand the beneficial effects of density.  The workshop was slightly more complicated than what I will outlay here, but the meaning is generally the same. I may be fuzzy on some of the persons per household, but one gets the idea. Future posts will focus on my creation of Resource-Based planning, the created long-term growth boundary, experience with Transfer of Development Rights (TDR), and what planners call H+T.

1974 Fitchburg Land Use Plan Map

To understand density many 1970 to 1980 many suburban subdivisions were at a density of about 3 units per acre, net, or lots of an average of about 15,000 sq ft. Later subdivisions, were about 3 to 4 units per acre, and today, they could be even higher density, particularly some new-urbanist developments could be at 6 or 7 units per acre for single family. This is what we refer to as net density.  However, the public improvements (streets, storm basins, etc) is about 35% of the lot area.  Therefore, a 10,000 sq ft lot would have an actual development impact of about 13,500 sq ft. This creates gross density. (I recall testing that common 35% planning rule, and found it to be closer to 40% for many subdivisions, which I attributed to newer storm water regulations.)

The housing workshop drew a crowd of over 50 persons, which we broke into small groups.  The charge to each group was to plan the residential growth of Fitchburg. We provided a map of the city, and colored squares in ten or forty acre sections with a few density levels.  However, to make it more realistic they were required to meet the population parameters set for the city.  Working off of information from the State, Dane County Regional Planning Commission, and the UW Applied Population Laboratory, we know Dane County is a growing region of the state, and they allocated to Fitchburg a growth of about 5,000 persons a decade. Now, to meet 5,000 persons a decade, we provided them a few figures:  At an average density of 3 to 4 units per acre, or predominantly single family housing, there would be about 2.7 persons per household.  If they wished to consider a mix of residential densities, at say 6 to 8 persons per acre, the average person per household would be about 2.15 persons per household.  Given these figures, I, and a others in my office, went around to assist in calculations.  Each group would calculate and map out the number of households per acre, and add in the 35% development figure to reach gross density.  

2017 Air photo of Fitchburg

At the beginning most all persons in each group thought that it best to grow at single family density (most people who attend public meetings are single family homeowners and rural landowners showing a bias to single family). Simple math gives the area required:  5,000 persons divided by 2.7 persons per unit requires 1,852 dwelling units.  At 3 units per acre (net) that is 617 acres and add 35% gives 835 gross acres of residential development to be accommodated every ten years.  Seems fairly simple, and most thought the number was not too bad.  The problem came when they had to map this out.  Where would Fitchburg accommodate 835 acres of residential development every ten years, for three decades?  As the small groups discussed and mapped, they soon saw the rural area of Fitchburg disappearing before their eyes.  When taken over three decades, the then anticipated planning horizon, that meant they needed to allocate 2,505 acres of residential development (almost four square miles), or over 62 forty acre parcels.  As they saw the rural area disappear they then changed their calculations. (To provide a common reference point, the 160 acre land area common in the Homestead Act and for farms in the Mid-West is made of four forty acre sections.) 

Comprehensive Plan Workshop

As the public attendees went through their scenarios, most came to a conclusion of an average density of about 8 or 9 units per acre being a more sufficient density in order to preserve agricultural land. The Goldilocks principle. Some groups, who wished to preserve more land had higher densities. Due to a mix of dwelling units generally required to meet eight units per acre we reduce the density per household to 2.15 persons. (Multi-family units in Fitchburg have fewer persons per household, generally about 1.8.) This would require 2,326, dwelling units to accommodate a population of 5,000 persons a decade. However, at eight units per acre, the net area required would be 291 residential acres, or 323 acres of gross residential development for every ten year time frame.  That would be about 970 acres for thirty years, or just under 1.5 sq miles of land.  The number of 40's used would decrease to just about 24 forty acre parcels.This is a savings, over three decades, of 1,535 acres of land as compared to the three du/ac scenario.  Interestingly, about 7 to 8 units per acre is the level thought to make mass transit suitable for an area.

By allowing persons to see first hand how development can eat up land, they became more understanding of the need for a variety of housing options.  Fitchburg is rather unique as a city, since it urban, suburban and rural, and many of its residents view the rural area as important, in other words they are vested in the rural land, which may make them appreciate rural land more than in other cities where expansion into the rural areas is nothing big. As the persons per household continues to decline in part due to a decreasing marriage rate, fewer children being born, and boomers aging, varied housing options are necessary. Large lot single family no longer fits the population desires of some Americans.  Fitchburg has seen some significant growth in its new-urbanist subdivisions, and many residents who do not live in one of those houses complain about how close the lots are, but it fits a need, and can be more affordable than large lot housing.  I recall talking to persons who were calling about availability of neo-traditional housing options, and desire their own home, but also a desire for a small lot.  Less mowing and care.  At over $450 (2018 dollars) a linear foot, public improvements for an urban subdivision are expensive.  For a 50' wide lot the cost of improvements is $22,500, compared to an 80' wide lot at $36,000, on average.  

New Urbanist Development in Fitchburg

Since 1978 Fitchburg has not allowed for the creation of rural subdivisions (although rural cluster development was approved several years ago, but that is another story).  The question, could then arise, what if Fitchburg allowed only rural subdivisions?  A minimum one acre lot would be required to meet the necessary septic system requirements (primary and a replacement area), but let us assume an average lot size of 1.2 acres (52,272 sq ft) for 1,852 dwelling units, which would be 2,222 acres, or adding 30% (assume some on-site storm water) of the area for public improvements would take us to a required 2,889 acres for rural subdivisions to accommodate the 1,852 dwelling units.  This amount of acreage is equal to over 4.5 sq mi, or over 72 forty acre sections.  Just think what this would be like if all dwelling units in the county were on 1.2 acre lots! 

Density Allows for this (Heritage tree in Fitchburg)

Now, those are just development acres, but the actual impact is greater, since streams, wetlands and steep slopes cannot be developed, they often become corridors though a development, and hence would generally mean an increase in road, and utility length.  The greater area required, the more likely you are to have to work around the natural features. This is why density matters, and for those who live on large acreages should be quite happy that there are people living in Manhattan.  

The current politics of Fitchburg, from what I understand, tend to favor single family housing, and that market is currently strong.  The problem is that if Fitchburg only had a single family housing focus a decade ago, during the great recession, there would not have been much construction.  Because of its diversity, and its land use controls of the 2009 Comprehensive Plan, Fitchburg avoided the large swaths of single family home sites that tended to remain vacant for several years, with a city plowing a long stretch of vacant street, to get to one home; worse yet were the built but unoccupied homes that were mined for copper and other materials. Because Fitchburg allowed for multi-family construction, it saw growth in its tax base, unlike communities that only preferred single family where the tax base stayed generally steady or, in some cases, declined.  Before the recession, I received a call from HUD, asking about multifamily development in Fitchburg, and the person noted that there was a strong need in Dane County for that type of housing.  Prior to the recession, single family development was favored over multifamily leading to a high demand for multi-family housing. When I worked, I preached balanced and diversity of use in neighborhoods.  Having a variety of housing types allows a development, and a community, to better meet changing market conditions, and economic declines. That assisted Fitchburg through several tough years brought on by the great recession and the related single family housing crisis.

To show why, here is a thought to ponder:  The United States has an estimated 140 million housing units, with a total area of the fifty states (water included) being 2.43 billion acres.  That works out to one housing unit for each 17.35 acres in the United States. What do you think about that number?

Those who live on large acreages should be grateful for urban areas, and their residents. When you see homes that are near each other, think not of them as sitting so close, but how they preserve land. It is the urban area residents, who live at the higher densities, which allows for the open spaces and farmland we all enjoy. Density, studies show, leads to less carbon emissions.  That is one reason why Manhattan was considered to be the greenest place in the United States.  To preserve open spaces, to maintain or create livable communities, to balance varied values, is why as a Planner we held public workshops.  It is why planning matters.  Properly accomplished doing density benefits the nation, and in so doing benefits each of us.

Images from author presentation to Fitchburg Plan Commission, May 15, 2018.

A Land Use Look Back

Many years ago as a teenager, I recall looking out the window as my Dad would drive west out of Sun Prairie on Highway 19.  What struck me at the time were the rural subdivisions being created.  This got me thinking about the long term consequences of rural land use and how it affects farming, urban growth, and provision of public services.  My thought to have a career as a city planner began on car rides west of town.  Last week I came across a couple papers I did while in college.  As I perused these 40 year old papers, I realized how much work went into each product.  Devising a theory and then testing the theory.  This involved meeting and talking with different persons, surveys, data collection, literature review, and synthesis of the data and information to see how my theories held. Just the mapping, the old fashioned way was time consuming. Permit me to go back forty years to a different age. 

One of those papers, written in the spring of 1980, was titled "Motivating Forces in the Creation of Rural Subdivisions in Dane County, WI."  Running over 70 pages, the paper examined varied physical land factors, farming activity, land use, and development trends in Dane County.  What stands out is that the four main goals of the then 1973 Dane County Land Use Plan, were much as we see today in many land use plans.  Perhaps at some point I will do a test to compare those goals with how development now looks forty years later.  More specifically the paper examined two rural subdivisions in the county, one in the town of Bristol, north of Madison, and the other in the town of Oregon, south of Madison and Fitchburg.  Surveys of these subdivision residents were completed to understand the push and pull factors of choice of residence in a rural subdivision. I also talked with 21 different persons, today we would refer to them as stakeholders.  These persons ranged from the subdivision developers, to farmers who sold, nearby farm owners, to county and local officials. As I said in the beginning of the paper, the major emphasis was on the people involved, and to see how decisions, based on beliefs and perceptions, affected the transitional zone between city and country.  It is in these zones, as noted by Historian William Cronon, and which I know by experience, that conflict occurs. 

T of Oregon with Location of 
 Hillcrest Heights Subdivision highlighted

What was interesting was that of those that moved from a previous home to the rural subdivision expressed no strong push factor for relocating to a rural subdivision, yet, those from outside of the city of Madison spent little time looking for a home in what was their previous place of residence.  The main focus for those from outside of Madison was to examine rural homes. For example, 77% of residents in the Hillcrest Heights subdivision in the town of Oregon only looked for rural homes; the rate for rural home searches was lower for Sunburst in the town of Burke, which was 59%. Homeowners in Sunburst were younger and more were first time home buyers than in Hillcrest Heights.  The proportion of school age children was similar for both subdivisions.  

Sunburst Subdivision T of Burke

At that time, 75% of the residents of those two subdivisions were employed in the city of Madison, and 12% in a nearby small community. Interesting, given the time frame of 1980, over half the households reported both spouses being employed.  Of course, the exclusive method of transportation was by personal vehicle.  No ride sharing, and given the lack of density mass transportation would be highly inefficient.

The dynamic involved with these two towns is rather different.  Oregon, located further from Madison, and as noted separated from Madison by Fitchburg, is one of the few towns in Dane County to not have undertaken Farmland preservation and the related tax credits, and the next, and related step, of Exclusive Agricultural zoning (which does not mean much anymore). Both of these policies were being enacted throughout much of the county in 1978-1979.  In making conscious decision to not assist in preservation of farmland, the town of Oregon has seen a good amount of rural lot creation, by certified survey map, perhaps more so than by plat.  This led to an interesting dynamic.  Farmers who resisted the temptation to subdivide and create rural subdivisions in the later part of the 20th century, would see their land become "hostage," so to speak in their mind, to the rural residents who essentially desire to preserve the rural open space around their subdivision or dwelling. This fits the saying told by a former Fitchburg Plan Commission member: "that an environmentalist is a person who already has their house in the woods." The farmers who later wanted to develop saw it as rather hypocritical for new landowners how built on good farmland to now not allow the conversion of another farm.  Not in My Backyard (NIMBY) is not at all a recent trend.  If the farmer had subdivided earlier, before control of the town switched from farm land owners to non-farm rural landowners, there would have been a greater loss of farmland, but perhaps more equity in the decision process.  What the situation in the town of Oregon showed is the need for proper planning.  Instead they got ill feelings and divide, and its unplanned nature has led to some who felt disenfranchised.  Planning is important, as I found that often people will can grasp when planning is logical and based on natural resources, and service capabilities. A rural landowner or farmer may not have liked the plan, but they would have understood. Planning moves away from frivolous decision making.  

Detail of Hillcrest, outlined area was
subdivision in 1979-1980

What is interesting, is that farmers I interviewed for my 1980 paper were concerned about the very issue of non-farm residents gaining control and then controlling their farm decisions, demanding more public services, or prohibiting them from rural development.  At the same time the rural non-farm residents want the farmland preserved, they have no problem complaining about farm odors, farm traffic, or other aspects they view as undesirable.  On the other hand, farmers complain about these things, but when they want to develop these concerns go away.  As an employee under me once stated, the Agricultural and Rural Affairs Committee in Fitchburg was not farm friendly, but farmer friendly.  There is a difference. In the town of Oregon, those who continued to farm were, as it turns out, were right.  The non-farm landowners gained control and would prevent much new subdivision, but not necessarily large lot creation by certified survey.  Most of the non-farm residents live on land that was previously owned by a farmer, and subdivided, but subsequent land owners were not now allowed to do the same, due to change in town control..  Farmers, rightly or wrongly, view their land as their 401k (I cannot count the number of times I heard this statement), and subdivision makes more profit than selling for farm land, at least in Dane County. 

The farmers who controlled the town of Oregon lost control, and what they thought would be their rights, without farmland preservation and agricultural zoning, to realize a greater profit from their land holdings failed to materialize in some cases. Those disenfranchised farmers would have been better off supporting planning with farmland preservation and Exclusive Agricultural zoning as they would have at least received some tax credits for retaining farmland.  

T of Burke, Sunburst Subdivision Location Highlighted

The town of Burke, or the little that remains from annexations by Madison and Sun Prairie, will go away in 10 to 15 years as it is absorbed by those two communities through an intergovernmental agreement.  Burke has created more rural subdivisions, and of interest to Sunburst is, at the time it was beyond the extraterritorial reach of both Madison and Sun Prairie.  The 1973 Dane County Land Use Plan goal of creating distinct and separate communities is not realized in the case of Sun Prairie and Madison.  They, by choice, have decided that the perceived economic value of suburban office buildings in the American Center (what will the office market be like after Covid?), big box sprawl (Prairie Lakes in Sun Prairie) and large apartment buildings along USH 151 is more important than community separation and community identity.  Growing up, one of my classmates parents owned the land that now comprises part of Madison's American Center, a large suburban office project anchored by American Family Insurance. In my estimation, it was that project, more than any other, that started the land wars along Hwy 151 between Madison and Sun Prairie.

Detail of Sunburst Subdivision, 2017 air photo

What did my 1980 paper conclude?  First, the general consensus of planned growth falls short when disagreements over local autonomy arise.  This is really nothing new, and the Capital Area Regional Planning Commission was neutered, so to speak, by similar thoughts. In 2015 legislation was passed allowing towns to divorce themselves from Dane County zoning; Dane County was often thought to be the impediment to rural subdivision activity.  Second, specific to the subdivisions, both sites passed from dairy to cash crop when sold to a non-farm owner, and then to subdivisions. The shift to non-farm owners, at least at that point tended to occur by retirement or death of the main farmer. Third, my study also found disinvestment in agriculture, particularly in the town of Burke.  This disinvestment presaged the takeovers by the cities of Sun Prairie and Madison.  Given the lucrative location of the town along USH 151, 51, and 90/94, is it no wonder there was disinvestment to await greener pastures?  Fourth, there was a five or more year supply of rural lots, meaning holding costs for the subdivider, not to mention the towns having to plow and maintain roads little used. Fifth, Burke was attempting to balance agriculture, and other land uses, but I think that became met with futility given urban expansion of Sun Prairie and Madison.  Finally, the sprawled development leads to greater costs for the municipalities than otherwise thought or intended, not to mention energy costs (recall this was 1980) for commuting.  In rural development nothing is really convenient but your view of the corn field nearby.

Preservation of farmland becomes more difficult in uncertain economic times, and as more and more farmers struggle with low commodity prices and high expenses, the agricultural land that remains within a commute range of an urban core are more becoming horse havens, than farms.  I came to conclude that at least the land is preserved and hay is a decent crop, with little erosion potential, and the horse farms are much better than a rural subdivision.  Agricultural statutes do not recognize horses as an agricultural venture, as raising cows, chickens, or pigs. Some seem to think that there is more land out there to grow our food, but this part of Wisconsin has some of the best farmland and climate in the world, and we allow it to be swallowed like a small bird by a cat.

Development along Hwy 1951 is to left, and angle 
road at southwest corner is interstate.  The line between the S and P, for
Sun Prairie, is a strip of land in the t. of Burke

Rural subdivision activity is still occurring in parts of Dane County.  Traveling along County G to Donald Park, one can see the public improvements for a new rural subdivision which the realty sign says will consist of 1.5 to 2.2 acre lots.  This is the town of Verona. The town of Verona, like the town of Oregon, was never part of the Exclusive Agricultural Zoning and Farmland preservation. The issue of local control dominates in many aspects of land use planning. I may do further blog posts on this topic, but one thing I have noticed in my experience is that the we are losing a land ethic.  With over 32 years in local governments, I think this has been occurring for many years, and even prior to the great recession, although its decline was hastened by the great recession.  (The relation to the great recession to the decline of the land ethic is rather ironic, which perhaps is another blog post.) And now, many years later, as I travel on Hwy 19 Sun Prairie is now part of Token Creek and urban sprawl of Deforest/Windsor stretches south of Hwy 19 between 51 and the interstate. But, for the creek that runs across part of 19 and its related wetland, the corridor is basically developed, showing that there is no community separation. 

Images from Dane County Interactive Mapping System