Housing Units

This year is not just the year of Covid pandemic, but it is also the year of the national census. Mandated by the Constitution every ten years, the census will be used to apportion seats in the House of Representatives, state legislative districts, county board and local aldermanic districts. Beyond these critical figures, the census is important to the work of city planners. Data from the census is important in describing the demographic, and socio-economic makeup of a community. The data is also used to help predict what will occur in the future.  On November 2 I did a blog post titled "A Land Use Look Back" in which I looked back at a paper I did for college in the spring of 1980. That paper contained some information on general demographics of the county before getting to the meat of the issue which was the creation of rural subdivisions in Dane County. I thought it would be interesting to compare some of that data to housing data since that point in time.  This will give a comparison as to what changes may have occurred in Dane County. (A thank you to Sean Higgens of CARPC for providing me building permit information from 1980 to 2019.) 

Pie Chart of Estimated 2020 Dane Co
Distribution of Population

The paper I wrote over forty years ago had the estimated population of Dane County for 1980 at 323,080 persons.  Of that amount, Madison accounted for 52.8% of the total population, Towns 23.0%, small cities 13.7% and the villages 10.5%. Since then there have been changes in two towns in Dane County.  Fitchburg and Windsor were both towns in 1980, but both are now incorporated; Fitchburg became a city in 1983, and Windsor incorporated as a village in 2015. Using estimated population figures for 2020, in which Dane County is expected to have a total population of 553,532 persons, Madison will comprise 47.8% of the Dane County population, while the small cities (including Fitchburg) will comprise 22.3%, the villages (including Windsor) will be 13.4% and the towns 14.5%.  The towns have seen a decrease in percent population from 1980 to 2020 by 5.5%, and Madison's portion also decreased by 5%. This shows that the small cities and villages have gained population relative to their total 40 years ago. Growing suburbs, which are seeing, in some respects, big city problems, are more than simple bedroom communities, as perhaps many were thought to be in 1980. Suburbs may be more diverse, but Madison is doing more than its share in terms of one type of housing.

Total MF Units (bldgs of 5 or more units) Permitted 
from 1980 to 2019

From 1967 through 1979 Madison accounted for 55.5% of the total multi-family construction, while from 1980 to 2019 it accounted for over 63% of the total multifamily units. For the suburbs, four municipalities: the cities of Monona, Middleton, and the towns of Madison and Fitchburg accounted for 32% of the multi-family construction in the period from 1967-1979.  Madison's percent of multifamily construction for the early time period was slightly higher than its percent of County population in 1980. In a sense they were doing slightly more than their fair share. However, today a big gap exists. Madison's percent of total county population has decreased to just under 48%, but its share of multifamily unit construction increased to 63%, a 15% difference, showing Madison is doing much more than its fair share. What people fail to distinguish is that multifamily housing is not just rental, it can also be ownership, by condominium. 

In contrast to multifamily construction, Madison saw 29.4% of the single family home construction over the same time period.  Residential development is often characterized as single family housing, but two-family and multi-family housing also are important. In fact, during the past forty years, there were only two years when Madison fell below 50% of multifamily units (5+ units per building) for the county. Madison bears the brunt of multi-family construction in the county, and that has increased, by eight percentage points, since my 1980 paper. 

Single Family Housing Permits, 1980 to 2019

The single family home construction of that thirteen year period (1967-1979) compared to the 1980 to 2019 figures, saw the towns percent of single family units decreased from 39.7% (or almost 40%) to 23.21%.  . The proportion of single family homes constructed in Madison has stayed the same, 29.4%  (1967-1979) compared to 29.51% for the latter time period. The 1960's and 1970's were the peak period for construction of rural subdivisions. Rural subdivisions, which lack public sanitary sewer, are land extensive, and would eat into the productive agricultural land base for the County. Rural subdivision activity throughout the state prompted action by the state to try and preserve agricultural lands. 

Percentage, by year, of Total Housing Units Permitted

In the 1970's the State of Wisconsin allowed jurisdictions to offer Exclusive Agricultural zoning, which, combined with farmland preservation agreements could gain an income tax incentive for owners of agricultural land.  I think all but two towns in Dane County adopted this agricultural exclusive zoning which went mainly into effect by 1980.  However, since that time, six or seven towns have opted out of Dane County Zoning.  Meanwhile, and before Dane County's version of Brexit, the state legislature gutted the provisions of Exclusive Agricultural zoning to remove penalties for moving land out of that zoning, even though the land owner received tax credits. Under the original law they would have had to repay part of the tax credits received. In a large sense, some agricultural landowners get the best of both: farm ownership credits, and sale for development without having to pay the credits back. A form of government welfare for those who will benefit from development. 

Percent of Single Family Permits by Type of Municipality
1980 to 2019

What is interesting is that single family development over the past few years is at a more measured pace than what occurred prior to the great recession.  Single family permits by year are down significantly from the peak years of the early part of the 2000's.  Yet, multi-family permits are at or above the early 2000 levels.  This is in large part due to redevelopment in the city of Madison.  Often overlooked is that Dane County is still well behind in the construction of multifamily units compared to demand. Even though there was some significant construction in the early 2000's it was insufficient to meet demand.  With so much single family construction during the 1990 to 2000's building boom, the multifamily market fell behind.

Percentage of Total Housing Units by Year and 
Type of Municipality

Of course, the biggest change over the forty year period is not in demographics or housing.  It is in how I was able to manipulate the data. I received the data from the Capital Area Regional Planning Commission in Excel, but since my Word suite has expired I transferred it to Google Sheets.  Using a computer was a big change from having to do it by hand back in 1980.  Even more so, the graphs for my paper were done on graph paper by hand and typewriter.  Now, I can chart using Google Sheets charting tool. A few clicks and I have a pie chart. The ability to quickly do charting, once you have the data is quite amazing. Although, I am sure the Millennial crowd does not appreciate the work effort that went into papers pre-laptop, or for that matter desk-top computers. 

Pie Chart of Population Distribution from
my 1980 Paper

While computerization has advanced, we can see that some things in regard to housing in Dane County have not. The county is still growing, Madison bears an even higher burned of multi-family construction, and farmland is still being used to accommodate growth. The aging of the Millennial generation is increasing demand for single family housing in some areas of the nation. Will we see another bubble and have it burst as in the early 2000's?  At this point, the past few years of data show that new single family housing increases is more measured than in the late 1990's and early 2000's.