The past two months has been a dream time for the NFL as no other sports have been played. The NFL sets its schedule to take advantage of almost every month of the year, lest people forget about them and concentrate on say baseball or basketball. Think about it, July is training camp, August is training camp and pre-season games, the seasonal games run Sept to the end of Dec, or early January. Playoffs are in January, and the Super Bowl in February. Free agency starts in March and the draft is held in late April. Yet, they are not done. May and June hold what is referred to as Organized Team Activities (OTA's is football lingo, which can be confused with online travel agency), and many areas have given the go ahead for that activity this year. This year, due to COVID-19, the NFL pretty much owned the sports pages until recently when ESPN began its series on Michael Jordan of the Chicago Bulls. At least there was something else than those dissecting the NFL free agency and the NFL draft.
Of course, the No Fun League, under Roger Godell, likes the idea of being in the sports pages at least once a month, and to dominate them during the season and playoffs. There is also the quote given by Allegheny County Corner Dr. Cyril Wecht to Dr. Bennet Omalu (played by Will Smith) in the movie "Concussion" where Dr. Wecht says: "The NFL owns a day of the week, the same day the church used to own." You can see that clip here. Of course, the NFL owns more than Sunday's in the fall and winter. The NFL made the move to Monday nights decades ago, and in the past few years have expanded Thursday night games. The earned television revenue of the NFL is split equally between all 32 teams, and it is reported that each team received $255 Million of TV revenue as of February 2019 (compared to $99 million in 2010). All teams, but one are privately held, so little financial information is fully available, except for that one team. The one team owned by the "public" is the Green Bay Packers. The Packers, in 2018, earned $196 million in local revenue; local revenue is made up of ticket sales, concessions, corporate sponsors, and some merchandise sales. That $196 million represented 43% of their 2018 revenue of $455 million. (If the 2020 season sees no attendance, that means the Packers will likely lose about that much revenue this year.)
Of course, there is the expense side. In the same year, 2018, the Packers had expenses of $420 million, and of that amount $213 million went to players, and the remaining $208 million was for stadium upkeep, marketing, team, and administrative costs. The most expensive player on the Packer team is QB Aaron Rodgers, who was given a four year contract in 2018 worth $134 million. Signing bonus and other specifications in the contract make it difficult to say how much he makes year to year, but let us say it was quite significant. One study of the complexities of NFL player salaries, said that Aaron Rodgers is the highest paid player in the NFL and made almost $67 million for the 2019 season, which is over $146,000 for every minute of playing time. What does this say about national priorities?
The NFL player collective bargaining agreement is completed by veteran players so it gives veterans higher benefits than those on the four to five year rookie contract. This is why teams, with the possible exception of the Chicago Bears, select what they hope will be a starting QB in the NFL player draft. (The poor Bears, can never seem to get the QB situation right, as the Chicago Tribune reported on 4 Jan., nine of the QB's starting in the playoffs this past season the Bears had a chance to select, but did not.) The Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl this year and that was accomplished with their QB Patrick Mahomes on his 2017 rookie contract and who was drafted tenth. Teams who passed on Mahomes included the Chicago Bears who are now thought to have essentially wasted draft picks and three years on Mitch Trubisky. The Bears could be the poster child of how not to select a QB. If you have a successful QB the QB is in line, as was Aaron Rodgers, for a large payday. Russell Wilson of Seattle has a contract valued at $140 million, and is estimated to make $53 million this year.
The benefit to a team with a good QB on a rookie contract is that there is significantly more salary cap space for other players. As free agency concludes teams may dump high cost players that have shown little on the field to make room for other players. The team salary cap for 2020 in the NFL is $198.2 million, which means that Russel Wilson's salary is about 25% of the Seattle Salary cap, and if the report on Aaron Rodgers is correct his percent was much more. What the NFL owners and general managers fail to realize is that the high priced QB's, are more a detriment than a help to a team, after all it is a team. Other than Tom Brady, who gave New England a discount, no high priced QB has won a recent Super Bowl in the past few years. High priced Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees (Saints), and others have come close. A second string QB, Nick Foles, won it for Philadelphia in 2017. But, unlike horse shoes, close does not count. I had thought Rodgers should have been traded in 2018 for a young QB or a journey man QB and strengthen other positions.
Rodgers signed his new agreement in August 2018, and he was at the height of his game. While his game has declined somewhat in the recent years, some say it was injury and others how the Packers failed to provide proper play makers for him. Of course, to get more play makers you need to have salary cap room, and when one body sucks up a significant amount of you salary cap is it little wonder why not much remains? Rodgers has always worked best when slighted and Tom Oates and others think that the drafting of Jordan Love in the first round is the slight Rodgers needs to advance his game, apparently even if the team lacks a good second fiddle wide receiver, or perhaps a first fiddle wide receiver depending upon your feelings regarding Davante Adams. Drafting to slight a player seems counterproductive to me, but I have tried not to understand the thinking of the Packer organization that has wasted talent, and was even better at not selecting talent, think Justin Harrell.
In selecting a QB in the first round of the draft, Green Bay traded its first round pick and its fourth round pick to move up four spots to select QB Jordan Love of Utah. Perhaps doing his best imitation of Bear GM Ryan Pace, Packer GM Brian Gutekunst "had" to move up to pick Love, even though no team of the four ahead would likely have picked a QB. Gutekunst then says that Love "fell to the Packers". I am perplexed as to how he can say a player falls to you when you trade a fourth round pick to move up four spots? I am not against the Packers picking Jordan Love, as I am used to the Packers wasting first round draft choices. But to trade a fourth round pick makes little sense. Many teams, including the Packers, find or found value in those from the middle round picks. Of course, getting value out of mid round picks means you have to know personnel, but Gutekunst has yet to prove he knows personnel well. As one sportswriter noted, he has only drafted two players who have made good production for the team.
People are comparing the Love pick to when the Packers picked Aaron Rodgers in the later part of the first round when Brett Favre was still playing well. But for New Orlean's bounty gate which certainly affected Favre, Brett may well have played in the Super Bowl when he was with the Vikings. Given the salary cap issue, is it any wonder the Packers cannot find strength at other position needs? Of course, that means their leadership would have to know what they are doing. That is the million dollar question for the Packer GM. While Gutekunst says he will not draft a person in a round higher than how he has that person graded, and used that as his reason for not drafting a wide receiver, his second and third round choices had heads shaking as most had those players were graded for a lower round.
To show the bizarre nature of the Jordan Love pick you have to look at the dead cap hit the Packers would have to take if they release Rodgers. In 2020 the dead cap hit would be over $51 million, in 2021 it will be over $31.5 million and then even beyond that contract year in 2022 it is still a high $17.2 million. The thing is in 2018 they gave Rodgers a huge contract to be their QB for four or more years, and a contract that they still have to pay on after the last contract year of 2021. That means that Green Bay thought Jordan Love, who had only three fewer interceptions than TD's on a team coached by past UW coach Gary Anderson, was better than any potential QB who will play in college over the next two or three seasons. Further, unless you wish to waste money, which apparently Gutekunst feels is an easy commodity given the through thin and thick of Packer fans, that Love will not likely start, barring injury to Rodgers, for the Packers until 2022, or his third year contract of a rookie four years with a fifth year option.
How this will turn out? No one knows at this point, by not having given Rodgers any more weapons and not really having helped the inside of the defense, the Packers most likely will see the decline in wins, although perhaps not as bad as the Bears saw last year after having placed first in the NFC North the year before. Having finished first, the Packers will see an increase in their competition as they will play the three other first place NFC teams, and not just the usual one. With a coaching staff clueless as to how to handle a San Francisco rushing offense, and with a QB who sucks up so much of the salary cap leaving little cap space for quality players at other position groups, it does not look good for the Packers. Brian Gutekunst could well be the new poster child for how not to do a draft.
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| Source: Google images |
Of course, there is the expense side. In the same year, 2018, the Packers had expenses of $420 million, and of that amount $213 million went to players, and the remaining $208 million was for stadium upkeep, marketing, team, and administrative costs. The most expensive player on the Packer team is QB Aaron Rodgers, who was given a four year contract in 2018 worth $134 million. Signing bonus and other specifications in the contract make it difficult to say how much he makes year to year, but let us say it was quite significant. One study of the complexities of NFL player salaries, said that Aaron Rodgers is the highest paid player in the NFL and made almost $67 million for the 2019 season, which is over $146,000 for every minute of playing time. What does this say about national priorities?
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| Source: Google images |
The NFL player collective bargaining agreement is completed by veteran players so it gives veterans higher benefits than those on the four to five year rookie contract. This is why teams, with the possible exception of the Chicago Bears, select what they hope will be a starting QB in the NFL player draft. (The poor Bears, can never seem to get the QB situation right, as the Chicago Tribune reported on 4 Jan., nine of the QB's starting in the playoffs this past season the Bears had a chance to select, but did not.) The Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl this year and that was accomplished with their QB Patrick Mahomes on his 2017 rookie contract and who was drafted tenth. Teams who passed on Mahomes included the Chicago Bears who are now thought to have essentially wasted draft picks and three years on Mitch Trubisky. The Bears could be the poster child of how not to select a QB. If you have a successful QB the QB is in line, as was Aaron Rodgers, for a large payday. Russell Wilson of Seattle has a contract valued at $140 million, and is estimated to make $53 million this year.
The benefit to a team with a good QB on a rookie contract is that there is significantly more salary cap space for other players. As free agency concludes teams may dump high cost players that have shown little on the field to make room for other players. The team salary cap for 2020 in the NFL is $198.2 million, which means that Russel Wilson's salary is about 25% of the Seattle Salary cap, and if the report on Aaron Rodgers is correct his percent was much more. What the NFL owners and general managers fail to realize is that the high priced QB's, are more a detriment than a help to a team, after all it is a team. Other than Tom Brady, who gave New England a discount, no high priced QB has won a recent Super Bowl in the past few years. High priced Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees (Saints), and others have come close. A second string QB, Nick Foles, won it for Philadelphia in 2017. But, unlike horse shoes, close does not count. I had thought Rodgers should have been traded in 2018 for a young QB or a journey man QB and strengthen other positions.
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| Rodgers and Love Source: Google images |
In selecting a QB in the first round of the draft, Green Bay traded its first round pick and its fourth round pick to move up four spots to select QB Jordan Love of Utah. Perhaps doing his best imitation of Bear GM Ryan Pace, Packer GM Brian Gutekunst "had" to move up to pick Love, even though no team of the four ahead would likely have picked a QB. Gutekunst then says that Love "fell to the Packers". I am perplexed as to how he can say a player falls to you when you trade a fourth round pick to move up four spots? I am not against the Packers picking Jordan Love, as I am used to the Packers wasting first round draft choices. But to trade a fourth round pick makes little sense. Many teams, including the Packers, find or found value in those from the middle round picks. Of course, getting value out of mid round picks means you have to know personnel, but Gutekunst has yet to prove he knows personnel well. As one sportswriter noted, he has only drafted two players who have made good production for the team.
People are comparing the Love pick to when the Packers picked Aaron Rodgers in the later part of the first round when Brett Favre was still playing well. But for New Orlean's bounty gate which certainly affected Favre, Brett may well have played in the Super Bowl when he was with the Vikings. Given the salary cap issue, is it any wonder the Packers cannot find strength at other position needs? Of course, that means their leadership would have to know what they are doing. That is the million dollar question for the Packer GM. While Gutekunst says he will not draft a person in a round higher than how he has that person graded, and used that as his reason for not drafting a wide receiver, his second and third round choices had heads shaking as most had those players were graded for a lower round.
To show the bizarre nature of the Jordan Love pick you have to look at the dead cap hit the Packers would have to take if they release Rodgers. In 2020 the dead cap hit would be over $51 million, in 2021 it will be over $31.5 million and then even beyond that contract year in 2022 it is still a high $17.2 million. The thing is in 2018 they gave Rodgers a huge contract to be their QB for four or more years, and a contract that they still have to pay on after the last contract year of 2021. That means that Green Bay thought Jordan Love, who had only three fewer interceptions than TD's on a team coached by past UW coach Gary Anderson, was better than any potential QB who will play in college over the next two or three seasons. Further, unless you wish to waste money, which apparently Gutekunst feels is an easy commodity given the through thin and thick of Packer fans, that Love will not likely start, barring injury to Rodgers, for the Packers until 2022, or his third year contract of a rookie four years with a fifth year option.
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| Rodgers Salary |
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