Seasoned Citizen

On 21 December of this year my twin brother will turn 65 years of age and become what I call a seasoned citizen. As he is now 65 years of age he is eligible for more senior citizen discounts, and a few other perks of which the elderly may take advantage. He can now, of course, join the ranks of Medicare recipients. The benefits he will now be able to receive due simply to age, places him in a growing demographic.

This growing demographic is of course due to aging baby boomers who are joining the senior citizen ranks. The year my twin brother was born also happened to be the year with the largest number of births for the baby boom generation. The 1957 number of births in the United States was not surpassed for any one year until 2007 when 4.317 million children were born or .17 million more than those born in 1957. Part of the worker shortage, I am sure, is related to baby boomer retirements which increased during the pandemic. Pew research has noted (source #1) that the effect of the baby boomers on the work force is particularly critical because "until the pandemic arrived, adults ages 55 and older were the only working age population since 2000 to increase their labor force participation." (Pew Study, see source #1, below.) Researchers at Pew also wondered if the pandemic driven retirements will be permanent or not. I suspect for many the only reason to go back to work is if they are forced by particular circumstances or the economy. For some, who were living on the edge to begin with, the perfect storm of inflation, reduced investment, results and housing costs can drive them into a job.

Infants
Family archives

According to a recent article in the AP (See source #2), senior citizens taking on jobs has increased due to inflation. The news article, dated 15 Dec 2022, noted that inflation particularly affects retirees who have no chance for a bonus or to work overtime. The story talks about the number of senior citizens who have had to rejoin the workforce during this period of high inflation. The AP story goes on to say: "The problem will become more widespread in the coming years as more baby boomers, who began turning 65 in 2011, join the ranks of the retired. In 2050, the U.S. population ages 65 and over will be 83.9 million, nearly double what it was (43.1 million) in 2012, the Census Bureau projects." The end of the baby boomer cohort will turn 65 in 2028, so the AP is padding their stats with the retirement of the X generation, which had births from 1965 to about 1980 (per encyclopedia Britannica), and even part of the millennial generation. The declining birth rate in the US, and even much of the world, will affect benefits. A flat, or even an inverted population pyramid is not a good thing for social security benefits which were based on continued population growth, particularly with a growth that would exceed generations before it. If US birth rates stay the same, or go lower, the population pyramid will invert. The nation's 2022 population pyramid is already showing signs of an inversion. 

2022 Population Pyramid. Source: see #3

An interesting book I read earlier this year, Nomadland, talked about itinerant Americans who live in recreational vehicles. Some are there by choice, others not. Some lost their earnings in the stock market decline of the great recession, or were affected by health issues, divorce or some other life changing event. What is interesting, is that Amazon employs a number of older nomad workers where ibuprofen is handed out like candy on Halloween. Even with their aches and pains, apparently Amazon has found a willing workforce which posses a strong work ethic. It is quite telling of the state of our national labor force if baby boomers were the only group, according to Pew, to increase their workforce participation from 2000 until the pandemic. Pew also found that the more education you have the more likely you were to retire early. Education is often related to income, but not always, so this makes some sense.

In the meantime there is a worker shortage which now has the Federal Reserve concerned since this has led to employers increasing the wages they pay. This then affects inflation. The Fed, according to Bloomberg news, expects unemployment to increase to 4.6% by the last quarter of 2023. That means over 1.5 million people will be out of a job by Oct 1 of next year. Now, if other jobs stay available they may have options, but the received pay may be decreased.

For many years the nation has been driven by the baby boomers, and that is now again the case as the largest birth year of baby boomers has reached 65. Baby boomers drove growth in some decades, from when they were young (parents spending on them), to when they had children (their spending on their children). So much is driven by demographics, in particular spending. The stock market likes when companies see sales growth. Zoom and some other tech companies saw significant growth during the pandemic, but that growth has now waned, (like  duhh) and they are no longer the darlings of Wall Street. There is a cycle, and my belief is that many of our national cycles can be explained by demographics. There was a drop off in births after 1964, but births increased a generation later as baby boomers and Xer's started having children which led to the large Millennial grouping. The effect was not as great because the baby boomers had fewer children overall, and they spread out their marriages too, meaning first births were often delayed. 

My twin brother and I as children
Family archives

When in our mother's womb, my brother was so intent on delaying his birth that he pushed me out. I cannot say that I blame him, I mean the amniotic sac was probably becoming a little tight with two babies, even though we were on the smaller scale, particularly me. He was larger than me at time of birth, I was the runt of the two baby litter so to speak. My twin is bigger than me and he got the nickname Harold when I was playing football in eighth grade and the high school football coach went up to my older brother who was watching the game and suggested that he "talk to Harold or whatever his name is into playing football."  We of course were born about a month early.  I am not sure who had the faint heartbeat, but the doctor kept telling my mom there was only one child, when she kept insisting there were two. What does the mother know after all?  Medical professionals, we are told, know best. Of course, that does not mean the doctor did not get upset with the nurses when they were not prepared for a second child to come out. After all the doctor told them to prepare for one child. That doctor felt so sorry for me that he and his wife became my Godparents. As much as my twin brother probably wished his entry to this earth delayed, by pushing me out, he unwittingly had set forth a series of  events that could not be stopped.  After all, he made his entry into the world 21 minutes after me. 

2016 Sun Prairie Sweet Corn Festival
On Sunday, you can stack your own corn in the tote
Photo by Chris Hovel

I am sure many of you have been wondering why I am referring to my twin brother and not myself in the benefits of a seasoned citizen. While I am now on Medicare, but some other benefits I have had for a year or more, thanks to my wife who is over a year older than me. Thanks to her seasoned age she was able to get discounts camping at National Forests a few years ago. Last week we bought a 2023 state park vehicle pass on which she was able to get a $15 discount because of her age. We tend not to take much advantage of senior citizen discounts at other places which apparently offer them, some from age 60 on or others at 65. Most are eating places and since the pandemic we have not been eating out as much as we used to. 

Being 21 minutes older I have the title of being a (slightly) more seasoned citizen than my twin brother. 

Happy Birthday to my twin brother, Greg!

Sources:

1. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/11/04/amid-the-pandemic-a-rising-share-of-older-u-s-adults-are-now-retired/

2. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-older-americans-72c8a3ed29eb8b8183400bc161c0c9ee

3. https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2022/