Historical Rhyme?

On a cool and cloudy early fall day, typical of weather in England for that time of year, a British Prime Minister debarked a plane from Munich and proclaimed that we had "Peace in our times."  That statement, made on 30 September 1938 by Neville Chamberlain has gone into history as one of the worst leaders in a time of crises. His comment was on an agreement known as the Munich Accords which was between the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany and ceded the Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia to Germany for no further German military action. Interestingly, Czechoslovakia had no representation at the negotiating table or a say in what the Western powers, mainly the United Kingdom, concluded. This coming Friday, President Trump, who has made several promises of ending the Ukraine War on day one of this term, will meet with Russian President Putin in, of all places, Alaska. Trump has suggested a land swap may be involved. Will history repeat, and if not necessarily repeat will it rhyme?

Neville Chamberlain meeting Adolph Hitler

While history does not necessarily repeat itself, it certainly rhymes (Mark Twain). Circumstances in history differ, although outcomes may be similar. As of Sunday, August 10, there are contradictory reports if Ukrainian  President Zelenskyy will attend. Trump is a developer, and hence he thinks in terms of land and buildings. Perhaps he is thinking of a golf course. Alaska is an interesting choice since the United States purchased what we know as Alaska from Russia in 1867 for the then high price of $7.2 million ($.02 per acre in 1867), which in 2023 dollars would would be about $129 million. The purchase was highly ridiculed, and termed as Seward's Folly (after Secretary of State William Seward). I can see Putin bringing this up to Trump in suggesting countries grow in land by conquest, by purchase and by "discovery." No more land is being made.  All lands have been "discovered", leaving conquest or purchase as options for territorial expansion. Countries no longer seem interested in sale since, the sales typically involved colonies or territories often far from the country who claimed governance. In 2014 Russia "annexed parts of Ukraine, mainly Crimea. Eight years later, Russia invaded Ukraine. 

Chamberlain announcing his ill-fated agreement

The United States grew by varied manners, including purchases-the Louisiana and Gadsden purchases, beyond that of Alaska, come to mind. The US also had the idea of protecting our borders by the tenant of Manifest Destiny, where the Pacific Ocean was viewed as our destiny. Putin's desire for parts or more of Ukraine lie with a similar desire--that of a buffer between the Russia and the NATO countries of Europe. If this shows one thing, it is how valuable land is, even in modern times. With fast paced weapons today, I am not sure how such a buffer will work, bur for some reason, Putin thinks it is needed. Like the Sudetenland, which was composed of ethnic Germans, including much of Dolni Chrastany were my Havel line migrated from to the US in 1868, there exist areas of ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine The Havel ancestral village of Ratiborova Lhota, even though closer to the German border, was not part of the Sudetenland. After WWII, Czechoslovakia undertook ethnic cleansing of the remaining ethnic Germans in parts of the country, including Dolni Chrastany. German settlers of this area of Bohemia likely started in the mid to late middle ages. Further resettlement of varied ethnic groups occurred in depopulated communities following the Thirty Years war (ended 1648).

Sudetenland areas

No one ever asked those ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland if they desired to be with Germany or remain in Czechoslovakia. Tensions were brewing in Czechoslovakia after WWI due to the fall of the Austro-Hungarian Empire which was a German speaking empire with Austrian leadership. Having been ruled by the Austro-Hungarian Empire for years many Czechs felt put upon. 

Magenta Line shows Sudetenland border by 
Ratiborova Lhota (out) and Dolni Chrastany (in)

History, like Trump, is intractable, and there are always unintended consequences. Even though Chamberlain proclaimed "Peace in our time," less than a year later Hitler invaded Poland which is the event which triggered WWII. Peace did not hold, and the second world war was the result. The Munich accords are often claimed to be an act of appeasement to Hitler to satisfy his desire for "lebensraum", which translates to living space. More space for the German race, if you will. Territorial desires and war have a strong relationship.

Russian Language main language in Ukraine
Certain areas have over 75% Russian as first language
Source: CNN

President Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine will not cede land to the aggressor, which makes some sense, as there may well be no guarantee what Russia will do next. Just as Hitler reneged on the Munich Accords, Putin could well renege on any agreement. It is clear the Russian annexation in 2014 did nothing to satiate Russian desires for additional territory. Jeffrey Sachs, a professor at Columbia, believes that Ukraine is a proxy for a war essentially between the US and Russia, and the war must stop. Yet, would stopping the war cease imperial ambitions of Russia? Although, I wonder if it is not more Europe vs Russia as it is Europe who has the most to lose with Russia on its doorstep, but as usual, has relied on US military and monetary support. Most European nations are siding with Ukraine.

No one really knows the mind of Russia, and what is desired. Is the world, as Pope Francis often suggested, already in a WWIII due to the varied complex conflicts around the world? The situation could get much worse if an agreement is reached without the consent of Ukraine. Czechoslovakia did not consent to the Munich Accords, although they capitulated to follow that decision, and within six months Hitler invaded the Czech portions of the country. Starting in September 1939 Hitler invaded Poland, then France, Belgium, Netherlands and more. The invasion of Poland is considered the start of WWII when the allies realized they were required to band together to stop the German aggression. The Munich Accords led to WWII. Perhaps due to hubris, world leaders often fail to realize the potential pitfalls and unintended consequences from a deal that excludes the invaded party. An poor agreement could result in more and greater conflicts. Where will NATO take a stand if Putin decides to move into the Baltic region, or perhaps Central Europe?

Hopefully, Trump understands that history rhymes, and he does not repeat the mistake of Neville Chamberlain in 1938, if not he may well be remembered as the next Neville Chamberlain.