Thursday, December 5, 2013

Red Sun Rising

It was early morning on December 7, 1941 that the Red Sun symbol appeared over the Pacific, in route for Oahu.  360 aircraft followed the lead plane for an attack on the US Naval base at Pearl Harbor. The dawn raid, killed 2,400 Americans, rendered much of the fleet useless, and destroyed over 200 aircraft. The Japanese, by contrast, lost about 100 men, 30 airplanes and a few mini-submarines.  Reading the war warnings today, one would wonder why there was a lack of security.  But, hindsight is 20-20, and at that time there were few who expected a Japanese attack on the US.  The three large US aircraft carriers of that fleet were out to sea, and six months later would exact revenge at the Battle of Midway.

Until that day, the nation was thought to be well protected by its geography.  A large ocean on each coast, a friendly neighbor to the north, and a developing country to the south, the country seemed to be well beyond the tyrants wreaking havoc in the continents beyond each bordering ocean.  The war itself, was partly a result of a geography, with Japan desirous of a larger share of raw material wealth.  Black gold was as important then as it is today.  It is rather ironic that a nation looking for resource wealth failed to attack the supply depots in Hawaii, which allowed the US to mount a quicker response than it otherwise would have if its supplies had been destroyed. Although doing so would likely only have delayed the inevitable.  

Some would say that oil has, at least in part, set forth a policy of protection of that supply in the Middle East as crucial to US interests, a doctrine that goes back to Jimmy Carter.  Since 9-11 the nation has been concerned about home grown or transported terrorists.  As much as the Obama Administration and the Air Force think that Dennis Apel's protestations on a roadway easement is a threat to the security of Vandenberg Air Force base, I suspect there are bigger threats to a peaceful existence through school shootings and gang warfare; there is also the new knock-out game.

Our "police" actions in the Balkans, and other world outposts conducted by airplane, combined with drone strikes make ware more antiseptic, and tend to obscure the importance of geography.  Yet, the on-going action of US soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq would argue against minimizing the importance of place.  An army runs on its stomach, and the US Army is no different.  Supply chains are often disrupted due to mechanical failure in the hostile desert environment.  But beyond physical geography, there is also human geography.  Two examples of the recent past show this:  Iraq and Egypt.  Iraq, for most of its time in history has been subjected to invasions and wars.  Robert Kaplan says that Iraq (and Pakistan) are two of the most illogically conceived states between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Subcontinent.   He goes on to say that every Iraq dictator since the 1958 coup had to be worse than the previous in order to hold together a state with no natural borders and with three ethnic groups, Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis, and "with a well-articulated degree of ethnic and sectarian consciousness."  (2012, Revenge of Geography, p. 35) A US presence is still required in Iraq, and one wonders if it is a country that can be fixed.  In a similar vein is Egypt, which too has struggled to provide a well-functioning democracy. Until a democracy is put in place that respects the rights of a minority, democracy can turn into another  form of dictatorship.  That was starting to happen in Egypt with the Muslim brotherhood and their removing checks and balances and their attacks against the  Coptic Christians, and non-Muslim groups.

Every person and state is a product of their environment and culture in which they rose--their geography.  Technology, as we have seen with airplanes, war ships, and drones, can mitigate to a degree the effect of physical geography, but not fully.  Unfortunately, the study of geography is depreciated in our globalizing world, just at the time when it can help inform us.  The Japanese knew their geography as shown by their desire for material resources. However, did they realize what they were getting themselves into?  Did they understand how the US  possessed certain geographic elements, physical and human, that would work to its advantage?  The architect of the Pearl Harbor raid, Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, has been quoted as saying:  "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve."  While it is important to understand your geography, it is important to understand that of your intended opponent just as well, if not better.

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