Sunday, January 22, 2017

Change and Same in Poland

History has a tendancy to repeat itself.  A little recognized event occurred on this date, January 22, in 1982, and that event remains relevant today.  The event involved Poland and what was the then occurring nuclear arm reduction talks between the United States and the Soviet Union.  Before exploring the similarity between an event 35 years ago and today, and seeing how history repeats and in a sense the tables have turned, a short history lesson is in order.
the Big three at 1945 Yalta Conference
Poland was received under the influence of the Soviet Union following the end of World War II which was a result of the February 1945 Yalta Conference (Yalta, somewhat ironically, is part of Crimea). The issue would become not so much which sphere Poland would fall (as that had already been decided), but its form of government. [Interested readers can find additional information on these events of 1945 in a past blog post.] According to historian Antony Beevor, Churchill noted the reason the war was entered was a need for a full and independent Poland.  However, Beevor noted that Stalin "referred very obliquely to the secret clauses of the 1939 Nazi-Soviet pact"  (p. 80, The Fall of Berlin).  This pact allowed the Soviet Union to invade and occupy eastern Poland.  The Soviet leader would cleverly play his cards, and an ill Roosevelt failed to recognize the signifcance and back Churchill.  Poland, like the remainder of Eastern Europe, would be puppets of the Soviet Union.  But, over thirty-three years later native Pole John Paul II became Pope.  Lacking any divisions, but with moral authority, he helped energize the Polish Workers who would go on strike in one country that was part the   self-proclaimed "worker's paradise." In 1979 his first visit back to Poland as Supreme Pontiff, he told the large Crowds "be not afraid."  The  Soviet Union would institute Marshall Law in 1981 in order to suppress the burgenoning Solidarity movement.
John Paul II in Poland, 1979
The movement of more Soviet control of Poland, led U.S. President Ronald Reagan to delcare, according to hisotry.com, "that arms reduction talks could not be 'insulated from other events',"   Being a Republican President, his action did not sit well with the left, who always feared he desired a nucelar war.  Heck, I recall after his election, an older brother putting a poster up on the back of our bedroom door that armageddon was at hand.  As we know the prediction of dire nuclear events did not hold true, Reagan did not induce a nucelar war, and in fact, in 1987 the INF agreement was signed.  Poland would see free elections in 1990.
Solidarity Protests
This is relevant to us today as it was just about ten days ago President Obama sent United States and NATO troops into Poland to counter what he see as "Russian agression."  The United States had  a lukewarm response to Russia annexing Crimea, which had been part of the Ukraine, but now wished to show solidarity with Poland and the need for the NATO alliance.  Poland, since its free elections, has tied itself to the west and is a NATO member, as are many other former Soviet bloc countries.  In a sense, what we see is another President of the United States essentially backing the Reagan stance.  While nuclear arms may not be the question today, Russia still likes to harken back to the days of their past manifest destiny and control of Eastern Europe.  Churchill and Reagan viewed Poland as a key element to resisting what was than Soviet aggression, and in his last days in power, so too did President Obama.  We are 35 years distant from thta event in 1982.  Interestingly, Solidarity began at the end of the first 35 years of Soviet control of Poland.  The more things change, the more they remain the same.  History has also turned the tables, with a Republican president now apparently viewing Russia more friendly than did his Democratic predecessor.  Reagan was criticized by Democrats for tying nuclear arms talks with Soviet treatment of Poland.  Now the shoe may be on the other foot, although many Republicans in congress do not trust Putin.
NATO forces upon Arrival in Poland on Jan 12, 2017
As for the Poles, they like Ukraine and other Eastern European Countries, are at the door step of Russia and view the Russian sphere of influence completely differently than many in the west.  They know what may result from a growly, and calculating bear.

Images from Google.

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