Chocolate Chip

One of the kitchen cabinets in our house contains an oblong, but rather short in height, Tupperware
storage container that holds chocolate chips. The container is near the salt, vanilla extract, brown sugar,  powdered sugar, corn meal, baking powder, baking soda, and other common baking ingredients. Chocolate chips often bring a good deal of joy to one’s taste buds, and one’s belly, whether or not in a cookie. Interestingly, it seems that chocolate chip cookies were invented first in the late 1930’s by a lady in Massachusetts. The legend goes that Ruth Wakefield, lacking a final ingredient, decided to cut up a semi-sweet chocolate bar and mix the chunks in with the dough. What she discovered was that the chunked chocolate, held its shape. Wakefield later teamed with Nestle’s and the infamous Toll House cookies were born. The name is derived from the Toll House Inn, the location where she made the first chocolate chip cookie. Chocolate morsels, or chips to most of us, would take on the widely known tear shape. Some argue that it is better to use chunked chocolate in making chocolate chip (chunk?) cookies as the chunks provide a different and varied texture to the cookie compared to the use of regular sized chocolate chips. To each their own taste buds and belly as to what is best to use, chocolate in chunks or chips.

Source:  Google Images

Source:  Google images

Situated as it is in the baking side of the cupboard, one would think that the chocolate chips were meant solely for use in baking. After all, no one eats baking powder out of a container, so why should they do so for chocolate chips, right nearby? Chocolate chips, however, are not baking powder. Whether chips or morsels, small or large, they taste good. Hence the problem. In the household of two, one person often goes to the chocolate chip container to grab a handful to directly eat, or more commonly, to place on top of banana, pumpkin or zucchini bread that has first seen a nice thick layer of peanut butter slathered on the sweet bread. What better way to enhance the bread.  It of course is not sufficient for the person to eat the piece of bread without a condiment. No, the person has to add toppings, not unlike if it were a dish of ice cream.  Some may take the view that it is destroying the flavor of the bread.  It cannot be the simple addition of butter, but it is peanut butter. Nor does a simple layer of peanut butter suffice, it has to be thick. But, even this is not enough, the baking cupboard is opened to obtain access to the chocolate chips. This prompts the other person, who is really the first citizen of the household, to sling the question, often in an accusing prosecutorial tone of voice that would well outdo Ken Kratz of “making a Murderer” fame: “Are you in the chocolate chips again?”  With strong emphasis on “again”, like it occurs daily.  Apparently, the first citizen of the household feels that chocolate chips belong in the cupboard equivalent of Fort Knox. Although come to think of it, the tone of voice used is best described as a one of a mother making an accusation at one of her children, which is the tone no one ever wants to hear, much less debate.

Step 1:  Cut a Piece of Zucchini Bread
Author photo

However, the chocolate chips were not always in the baking cupboard. They used to be on the side that contains the peanut butter; in this way there was a match between two great tastes that go well together. First citizen’s rearranging of the cupboards and moving of the chocolate chips to the baking side may have well been a statement for the other member of the household to keep their hands off the chocolate chips but for baking, and occasional use in a home-made sauce for ice cream. If the relocation of the chocolate chips was accomplished to send a warning shot, it went unnoticed until the writing of this blog post. It may be that the first citizen of the home does not wish to come up empty when it is time to bake some chocolate chip cookies, or zucchini bread with chocolate chips, or whatever. The corollary of course, is to make sure that the household always has plenty of chocolate chips on hand, just as it is known to have plenty of peanut butter on hand.

Step 2:  Layer on the Peanut Butter, Nice and Thick
Author photo

Access to the chocolate chips sometimes comes with no comment. In fact, this past weekend, two other times came without any such comment, but the envelope was pushed on the third time in three days and the question came out. The derisive question meant to dissuade ignominious activity was followed by silence of the perpetrator in response. The silence followed with another comment by the questioner: “There has to be a blog post in this….”   While the person making the comment did not write this post, but instead it is written by the person on the receiving end of the question of once again being in the chocolate chips. Chocolate chips are good in more than just cookies, ice cream, or baked in zucchini bread. They also go well with a number of other items, and as Reese’s shows, chocolate and peanut butter go well together.

Step 3:  Cover with Chocolate Chips

The concept of what goes with chocolate chips should not be foreign as the first citizen of the house well knows that I am the one who used to make and eat peanut butter, chocolate chip and bologna sandwiches. Nestle, those of the very best chocolate advertisers, never approached me for the possibility of marketing such a sandwich. I suspect they did not wish my use of chocolate chips with bologna to outpace Toll House cookies in fame and fortune.  Their loss, not mine.  My use of chocolate chips may not rate up there with Mrs. Wakefield, but in my house they are treated by one occupant as needing to belong in the cupboard of Fort Knox. My taste buds and stomach revolt to such a thought.

Leaves

Over two weeks ago I was looking out my office window pondering problems for projects in a rather diverse community.  By race and ethnicity, Fitchburg is the most diverse municipality in Dane County.  It is also the most diverse from a land use perspective, going from rural to high density areas.  It is the only city in Wisconsin to have exclusive agricultural zoning, and the only community in Wisconsin to adopt the transect based SmartCode zoning, which is a form-based neo-traditional zoning code.  The landscape I viewed out my north office window is also diverse.  I see standard  suburban development with the resultant expanse of asphalt; I see prairie; and I see the dome of the state capitol building almost directly north.  I see the University of Wisconsin campus, and on dark days, if the Camp Randall score board is on, I can see that too.  What struck me was not the urban use or the prairie landscape, but the landscape of shade trees in the islands of the Community Center parking lot as I view north.  A few weeks ago, of the five honey locust trees, one was still all green, two were well changed in color to a legal-pad yellow, one was beyond the yellow to a golden rust color losing its leaves, and one was just starting to turn.  A few weeks later the legal-pad yellow colored trees were the golden-rust, the golden rust has lost all its leaves, and the even the one starting to turn yellow, is now the golden rust.  The tree that was all green leavea a few weeks ago is now yellow and its leaf loss is now in progress, while as of October 17, the others are pretty well leaf-less.  

Community Center north parking lot.  Oct. 11, 2016
More than a week after my first observation of the locust trees
(Taken on one  of the few days of sun this fall)

Living organisms all have some differences.  Given this I would expect differences among the honey locust trees, but the differences in leaf cycle of the trees is all the more striking considering their similarities.  The trees share a very similar macro and micro-climate, soil conditions, and other climatic factors.  They are all within 130’ of one another.   They all were purchased at the same time, from the same nursery, transported to the site the same way, at purchase all near the same size, all are the same variety and all were planted on the same day 28 years ago.  Changes have occurred over the last 28 years.  City Hall has been constructed to the west of the Community Center, although tree root zones were little affected by construction.  Curb and gutter was installed around the parking lot islands about 12 years ago, and about four years ago an addition to this parking lot side of  the Community Center was constructed.  The trees span over a month  in their leaf cycle, from when I first noticed the striking differences three weeks ago. 

Front yard locust tree (Autumn Purple Ash behind)
notice most all leaves are off.

Leaf cycle is said to be related to a number of factors, but the one major factor to lead to the changing color of leaves is said to be the change in day light.  From the summer solstice the days get shorter and shorter and about the third week of September we have the autumnal equinox which provides the same amount of day light as does the spring equinox in March.  Given this supposed major factor, the difference in leaf cycle seems rather remarkable.  I have noticed the difference among locust trees at my house.  However, they were planted in different years, and of varied size at time of planting.  Their microclimates are rather different, as one is near the street and drive, and two are in the backyard.  Of the two in the back yard one is in more shade than the other.  The tree by the street changes first and as of the week of October 10 has lost almost all its leaves.  The more shaded of the two in the backyard is now losing its legal-pad yellow leaves, and the other is still very much green, and receiving its tinge of yellow color. 

Locust trees in backyard. one to left, partially obscured is yellow and loosing leaves,
one in center is mainly green

The one difference of my unscientific experiment of locust trees at the Fitchburg Community Center is that the one that turned late has a bio-infiltration facility next to it.  During its construction four years ago this facility would have disturbed some of the tree’s root zone.  Does the extra water in a rain garden that does not work well (water stays in for weeks so it is almost a pond that a bio-filtration facility) affect its change of color?  Or perhaps in combination of the water it is added nutrients that can enter its root zone from the trapped storm water?  In addition to recharge of storm water, another purpose of bio-infiltration facility is to trap nutrients in the soil structure and avoid their transfer to surface waters.  I made an inquiry to the city’s urban forester, and she commented that it the change of color is most related to shortening days and was surprised at the significant difference.  The problem is,  I just noticed the difference this year, and do not recall if the difference was present before the building addition and rain garden were built.

Looking up at tree in backyard that was well turned, with non-turned locust to the right.

The power of observation would have served me better if I had recalled having noticed differences among the trees in this one parking lot during a prior year.  (Even the forester, whose job it is to look and observe trees, had not noticed the differences.) Maybe there were no significant differences, and that is why it did not register.  We observe much, but not all resonates in our mind.  Memory can be selective, but observation can also be powerful, and if we take sometime to think of what we see we may see the beauty and diversity of nature at play.

Traits Two

This past weekend while at a birthday party for three relatives the issue of automobiles arose.  My sister and her husband had just purchased a small sized Sport Utility Vehicle to replace a Chevy Envoy that was on its last legs.  The new vehicle has pretty much all the bells and whistles one could want on a vehicle.  My sister, the primary driver, should not want for a vehicle feature.  The boatload of features brings us to the purpose of this post.  It is almost like a Wife App II, or a sequel to my original post that introduced my idea of the Wife App last June.  The post was titled Traits. 

Pioneer

My sister was regaling our millennial nephew with all of the safety features of her new pet.  It had of course standard items, such as ABS, airbags, and some of the newer technology with cameras which provide a host of options.  These options include where the vehicle will parallel park on its own, notification when you deviate from a lane without having used your signal, and of course the back-up camera to let you know what awaits behind the cars backside.  Mirrors and head looking back may miss what is directly in back of the vehicle.  However, there is one feature that most intrigued my nephew and that was the steering wheel giving you a slight tug if you deviate out of your lane without having used a turn signal.  He wondered if it was hard to override, does it feel unsafe, and a host of other questions.  Apparently, the tone sound of such a deviation is not enough, and the car provides this other little reminder—like do you really want to do that.  In that way it is very much like my wife.  My sister’s car may have the tug in the steering wheel, but I have my wife with her varied voice commands.  Believe me, I do not need a self-correcting car when my wife is in the passenger seat.  Showing the limited readership of this blog, my nephew had not read the Traits blog that dealt with the wife app. 

Old man in a tree

But, if I thought my wife was full of commentary, I had to count my blessings on the actions of my sister-in-law, the mother of my nephew. During the discussion of the new SUV, I noted how the car has many of the features my wife provides.  Nephew seemed surprised at how his beloved red-haired aunt would be so engaged on a road trip.  I, however, noted to him that last year (2015) in June on a way to Conover that his mother was much more involved as a backseat driver than I have ever known my wife wife.  At some points you have to count your blessings, and that was a time to count mine.  Now, the father of my nephew car has some of the fancy features associated with cameras, such as the tone sound when deviating without a signal.  I don't beleive it has parallel park assist nor the tug of the steering wheel.  Yet, my brother’s wife was still there in the back seat commenting on lane deviation, speed and other aspects to keep us four safe on the four hour road trip.  His reaction, of disbeleif that his mother was a backseat driver made me wonder if my sister-in-law was doing it for a show while we were on that roadtrip that early Saturday morning.  I find it difficult to believe that she does not do as much commentary when her prized possessions are in the car with her and my brother.  On the other hand, perhaps he is thinking about other things while on a road trip with his parents, or perhaps he was sleeping.

Headwaters of the WIsconsin River

I suppose at some point technology and robots will make the wife app less likely to be involved in commentary, but as with my sister-in-law it still may not make much of a difference.  After all, she still is involved even though the car has a number of the safety features associated with cameras.  When it comes time for our next vehicle, the use of cameras may be as ubiquitous as the use of airbags, so I may get that built in measure of safety, but I will not count on it silencing my spouse, as she is so observant, she would beat the cameras to the punch and let me know before a tone would sound.  Humans still have some advantages over technology.  And, my wife app works when there is no defined (i.e. painted) center line or road edge line.  Technology still has to advance before it beats my wife app.

What is a human doing here?

Photos by author, June 2015 on road trip to Vilas County

Own Reality

In April 2013 while at a national planning conference, I attended a session on traffic management.  Traffic is a word that a planner will always hear regarding a proposed development or redevelopment.  And, the comments always focus on there being too much.  Human nature is, down to its core, somewhat selfish.  Self-preservation has been part of the human race since early humans ran around with lions, and tigers and bears.  Many wish to be the last one in the door, so to speak.  This is particularly true, it seems, in suburban and exurban areas, where (as an example) a person who has the house in the woods wants to be the last house in the woods.  There are many different aspects to human behavior, but people and groups form their own reality.

Row houses in Pullman

On that cool weekend day that April that I found myself stuffed three levels below street grade in a non-descript ball room of the conference hotel listening to the session on traffic management.  I had expected to hear about varied methods of transportation demand management, and other strategies that may assist with the ever seemingly congested Fish Hatchery Road.  I knew the speakers came from California, and I figured what better state than car clogged California to present on traffic management.  One speaker focused on how some counties in California will allow businesses to grow, provided they do not increase their traffic above a certain amount.  Stanford University is one example where they are now building housing for professors on campus in order to reduce the number of external car trips associated with their growth. Under this scenario, the nation may start redeveloping the company towns of old—think Pullman in Chicago, or Coalwood in the movie “October Sky.”

High Tech Company Genentech bus

Getting people around has been a mainstay of community development.  Early humans likely used animal trails, and of course the Romans are famous for street construction.  Hence, connectivity is important to any community.  The most interesting speaker at this session, however, focused on bus transportation.  I know, buses are that often overlooked form of transportation.  A dislike for buses and the thought that they are for the lower masses, has places where they look like a trolley, or even bus rapid transit is made to look like a train.  The presenter did not talk above municipal bus systems, but rather private buses.   Not privately owned systems for public use, but systems for a particular employer.  He noted that many technology firms in the area of and around Silicon Valley have found that providing their own bus system to get employees to and from work is better than building large parking ramps, and it also allows more building construction on property already owned—densification.  They have found the in-building  infrastructure is often too great a cost which would limit movement to a new site.  In other words, they prefer their current location, but need to add office space.  Offices, instead of large surface parking benefits the community too.  The private buses provide certain amenities public buses do not.  Besides keeping the new high-tech patrician stock from mingling with the plebeians, they also provide wi-fi.  Keeping the millennials connected without them having to use their data is smart for business.  During the drive time they are not viewing Facebook or checking the performance of their fantasy sports team.  The companies, the speaker reported, have increased productivity because the drive time is now used more for work production, over private purposes.  Check your email, schedule meetings, and review documents all from the seat of your company bus while going to and from work.  More productivity without the hassle of having to pay.   Socially the riders are clumped together with others of like business interests. It becomes their tribe.

Genentech bus stop sign
Some say near riots have occurred with private buses using public stops

The self-identity of tech employees at these large companies is perhaps best manifested in their large self-contained buildings.  One writer has noted that many have levels of security that would make the Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv jealous.  These places are often self-contained.  As one described it they have three full organic meals a day, can get everything from a haircut to doggie day care.  Oh wait, but for the housing they are a company town.  These new company towns create their own reality.  Research Park Triangle, one of the first high-tech agglomerations in the nation located in Raleigh, NC, has realized that millennials do not want a traditional corporate setting so they are looking at ways to ramp up company life as human life.  Breathe and die for the company.  Sounds like the corporations of old.  Millennials are used to being coddled, after all it was their parents from whom the descriptor helicopter parent derived.  Although, Allison Arieff, writing in “Architecture Boston” with an article titled “Company Town, 2.0”  notes that perhaps it is not so much a company town as it is a more of a post-college campus.  New York City’s “WeLive” provides furnished housing on a month-to-month basis.  What better way to recognize that the millennials that are 25-34 tend to only work three to five years in the same place.  Tech companies want the best and the brightest even if it takes coddling and creation of their own reality.

"Trolley" bus in Madison, WI
An attempt to make bus travel more likable

Employment, whether coddled or not, is often provided as a way to get public subsidy for a company.  Most often used is Tax Increment District (TID) financing, which takes the added property assessed value and pours it back in as a subsidy to the business.  But, TID should be used to create more than a Disney-esque place.  In the past, TID’s often counted on spin off effects from the business; for example, the local restaurants, service businesses (think haircuts) hotels and office supply would benefit.  The economy of scale would help the community.   It is this spin off effect that is used to justify a billion dollars for a new sport stadium, even for a season with only ten home games.  Let me provide two examples of TID used for private businesses without much gain to other businesses in the community.  First, Twitter received TID money from the city of San Francisco to place offices near downtown.  Following the trends of other large technology giants—Apple, Google and others, Twitter created an almost self-contained building, and as one urbanist living in the area has said, that few employees venture beyond their headquarters.  Twitterverse may like the money from the city, but the small shops and shop owners sighting of a twitter employee will be as rare as a sighting of a Scarlet Tanager in my backyard (and yes, it is a bird found in Wisconsin).  They do little for the local economy.

New Apple Headquarters

The second example, is in Dane County, WI.  One large technology firm was provided millions in TID incentives by the city of Verona, but anecdotal evidence would point to little boom to the restaurants and shops of Verona.  The local spillover effect has not been as great as what those businesses hoped.  While I hear they have great food at Epic (I havae aq brother-in-law who is one of the chefs at Epic), that is probably not what the Verona restaurants want to hear. Epic even seldom uses local hotels in Verona.  The economy of scale is not necessarily at work in the world of high technology office buildings.  Epic does contract with the local public bus company, but it is a route that is predominantly geared to Epic employees, so they do not have to worry about the plebeians getting in the way.  Of course, some aspects are self-inflicted.  Verona limits multi-family housing to 150 units per year, and it is said most Epic employees live in apartments.  The knowledge and high-tech economy is one of mobility, and home ownership is, in the long-run, is not consistent with mobility.  Recall how short millennials stay in one place of employment. 

Headquarters of a giant

The cultural world in which we live is changing.  We have companies that create their own reality to manage mployee lives almost as much as the former company towns.  The reasons may be different, but the outcome is similar.  In the end, the small shops and service businesses have a difficult time competing with massive Amazon, and have even a greater difficulty seeing any measurable spin off from the business assisted by TID financing.  What this will mean in the long run for our neighborhoods and communities is yet to be seen.  The intensification of offices is better than sprawl, and running their own buses is better than more cars clogging California highways.  Culture affects planning, and that session on traffic management provided insights into the workings of large technology companies.  Some large corporate headquarter buildings, like Apple, and Epic seem to work counter to the ideas of encounter and engagement the company says they value.  They may encounter their own high tech patrician, but not the everday plebs that may provide a different outlook and values.  Showing an inconsistency, the current trend in planning is to form the ability to provide encounters with varied housing, and uses in a neighborhood.  We all have our own reality. How much we create of it ourselves, may not be fully in our grasp.

Boomer Blame, part 3

Two of last three posts have dealt with the baby boom and subsequent generations. This is the third and last intended installment in my blog series on Boomer Blame. Baby boomers, as noted in a prior post, are those having been born from 1946 through 1964. The two prior posts in the Boomer Blame series dealt with issues of demographics and then of the relationship of demographics to economic growth. This final post will deal with the Social Security, and the problem it faces in the not too distant future.

Social Security card

Social security dates back to 1935 and it pays benefits from the reserves in an account formally known as Old Age Survivor’s Insurance Trust Fund. (OASI). There also exists, since 1957 a Disability Insurance Trust Fund, and while separate funds, they “are managed under parallel procedures.” (Pattison, David; p. 2 Social Security Bulletin, v 75, No. 1, 2015). Today they are generally referred together as the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Trust Funds (OASDI). I think the long name is self-explanatory as to purpose. Yet, these funds are more complicated than being in a simple trust fund. The Treasury uses the trust fund money that is deposited to reduce its it overall borrowing for other operations. Basically, the receipts are loaned to the government. This is one problem. Another problem is related to demographics. Us baby boomers are starting to retire and some have started to draw on social security. The first boomers started to reach age 65 five years ago. The boomer generation is so large that it is not just the withdrawals that affect the funds, but also the fact that less high level wage earners contribute.

One idea of how it works

The trust funds receive income from two main sources—tax income, think of the FICA deduction in your paycheck, and the other is interest earnings on the revenue reserve. Think about it, the main high earning years are said to be between ages 45 to 54, so it is only two years before the full boomer cohort will have moved beyond their peak earning years. The bulk of the boomer generation has already moved beyond their peak earning years. These are the rough numbers, but of course every individual situation is different, some may see their peak earning years last longer. One website indicates that 77% of all financial assets in the nation are held by persons age 50 or older. Millennials may now be dominating cultural trends, but from a financial asset standpoint older generations still control. In any event, while the 45-54 age group may be in their peak earning years, Dent and others point out that age cohort (particularly the first five years) spends the most. It is at that age that housing is up-sized, they have children in their teen years or beyond,  with college expenses.  In general peak purchase years. Therefore, while incomes, according to the general trend may be lower for those in 55-64, I suspect before retirement the group sees some clear saving years. Although hopefully they started saving for retirement years earlier. Social security has already been affected by these changes.

Ponzi Scheme?

In 2005/2006 Reznick, et al authored a paper (Social Security Bulletin V. 64, No. 4, 2005/2006) that indicated the trust fund would be exhausted in 2040. However, the more recent paper, ten years later that is quoted above indicates that date to now be 2033. So much for projections. (One thought for the dramatic change is that the Obama Administration approved the inclusion of many unemployed onto disability as a way to increase spending during the great recession.) Some policies of the agency also work to increase insolvency. At this rate the fund may be near broke by the time they figure it out. The math is just simply not sustainable. This can be seen by the dependency ratio which has continued to increase. The dependency ratio is a measure which shows the number of dependents, those aged zero to 14 and over the age of 65, to the total population. For example, the ratio was 67 in 2010, but will increase to 83 to 85 between 2030 and 2050. There are fewer and fewer workers to support those on social security or younger children in their own families. The Reznick study notes that the problem is not only that people are living longer, but they are also persons are having fewer children. They go on to say that this “demographic challenge has been recognized by policy analysts as well as policy makers. President George W Bush gave a succinct summary of the situation in his 2005 State of the Union address.

What does the future hold?

Major changes to Social Security, while necessary for the health of the system, are simply politically unpopular. Just as the NFL Players Association looks out for the veteran players, AARP looks out for those already retired. By the time Social Security faces crunch time, it will be too late to act. In the meantime the mischief's of faction continue to hold up the advancement of equitable policies to make sure that those who put in to Social Security will reap the benefit. Over one-third of persons who will look to retire will pretty much be fully dependent on social security. In addition, the web site Statistic Brain indicates that the average net worth of a couple age 55-64 is (January 2016 report) is just under $46,000. Not much in savings.  Americans are thought of as spenders and this may show come their intended retirement.  Many companies no longer have pension funds, or retirement accounts, hence an employee is often on their own, and many lack the control necessary to save for a rainy day, much less retirement. Social Security is in a perfect storm with an increase in retirees, people living longer, fewer children being born, retirement planning left to the individual, and factional groups that look out for short term interests.

Images from Google

Fish Out of Water

Weather wise in my locale, this past Sunday was a spectacular September day. Given the clear and warm weather I, at the urging of my wife, decided to go kayaking on part of the Yahara River. What was unique was not the kayak experience, but where old fashioned recreation (paddling) met with 2016 recreation—Pokemon Go. I felt like a fish out of water when I arrived at Fish Camp County Park.

Air photo of Fish Camp, Canoe area is in center
Google maps

I normally would put in just south of McFarland, at an access point off of Sleepy Hollow Road, and often kayak three and one-half miles to Fish Camp and then back. Seldom have I seen other kayakers or canoers when I arrivede at Fish Camp.  If I see anyone it is a person putting in a motor boat to fish on Lake Kegonsa. But on Sunday, the local McFarland Festival parade was in progress, so the easier way came to drive a few miles to Fish Camp County Park and basically reverse my route. Given the time of year, and past experience, I did not intend to find the park busy, but  thought perhaps there may be one or two others that had put in at that launch site.  As I was about to turn onto Fish Camp Road, I noticed that my thought was completely wrong. The rural road edge was lined for much of its distance with cars. Fish Camp is not a big picnic area, as it lacks a picnic shelter, so I wondered what was going on. I thought perhaps a fishing demonstration, but as I took the right onto the drive to enter the canoe/kayak parking area, I quickly noticed that it was not fishing related at all. I quickly noticed many persons with heads down and playing on their smartphones. My next thought was that it was a Pokemon Go assemblage, and so I carefully drove down the drive to near the boat launch to avoid persons wandering all around the grass and pavement with heads down oblivious to traffic or, wonder of wonders, someone who was going to actually use the canoe/kayak launch for its actual purpose. As I was unloading my kayak, I inquired of an individual if they were playing Pokemon, and he said “yes, there are many at this site”.  After driving back to Fish Camp Road to find a parking space, I counted 40 cars parked along the road. This did not include the cars parked in the canoe/kayak launch parking lot. Needless to say, I felt like a fish out of water. I mean I was the only one looking to launch a small watercraft.  I was also the only person that either did not have a cellphone in my hand, or with someone who did.

The density probably approached this in parts of Fish Camp

With little other interference I was able to put in and after about 15 minutes of paddling was beyond the area that is bordered by many homes, into a more rural area. It is then that the benefits of paddling are realized. I saw a heron, several birds, and young ducks, but not adult ducks. A few trees were turning gold at the top and a few maples starting to turn to their bright red. The gold provided a contrast to the crimson color of the understory shrubs. Farm fields were tan as the soybeans and corn were starting to dry.  Cattails are especially present along this part of the river, and a person had constructed duck blinds within the cattails. Showing the ever present level of nutrients within the stream, two county lake weed cutters were parked along the shore, although probably near a mile apart. On my paddle route, I saw three canoers and four other kayakers. How many put in at Fish Camp I do not know as some probably live along the river or put in at a different boat launch. All in all it was a pleasurable day for paddling.

Pokemon Go on a cell phone

As I was heading back downstream to Fish Camp I came across a man in a kayak with a fishing pole who was paddling upstream. I said hello, and he commented that this was his first time on that section of the river, and how scenic he found the route. I nodded in agreement and asked where he put in. he said Fish Camp Park. I asked if all the Pokemon people were still present, and he said “oh yes. They need a life!” I had much that same thought when I saw them present. But as I paddled upstream, after having departed Fish Camp, I pondered their presence at the boat launch. I came to the realization, that there are many forms of recreational activity, and if that is what they take pleasure in, so be it. It reminds me of the geo-caching craze of a few years back, although I never came across many persons that were geo-caching. I know some park directors who like Pokemon Go as, they have commented, it gets people outside. But, I also know persons who live in the urban area of the near east side of Madison and they complain about players tresspassing through their yards to capture Pokemons. As I was pulling up do the dock to take out, I counted over 100 persons present on shore doing the Pokemon Go craze. Most were working their handheld device, in a rainbow of case colors, while wandering around thumbs waging war with the keypad. A few were sitting in chairs and working their device. Children were following parents around as they manipulated their devices to do what they need to do with Pokemon. I wish I had my camera as it was quite the scene.  What struck me was that there was a varied age demographic, from young children with a parent(s) up to persons likely in their late 60’s. Smartphones and Pokemon one common interest beween the varied age demographics.  Pokemon is not only used by millenials.

Photo of Fish Camp without Pokemon Go crowd
Weedcutter is at far end of photo, near the pier I used
Google images

As I pulled my kayak out of the frong green colored water, and lifted it off the pier to shore, I had to avoid a women spread on the ground apparently not enjoying the moment.  I did not see a cell phone in her hand.  She gave me an odd look, like someone actually paddles a boat.  I overheard a few people comment that they had never been at this park before. The County Park Department may like to hear that, but when all you want to do is put in a kayak, and you have to dodge wandering hordes and ill-parked cars, you wish there was less of it. The solitude of the journey and the view of nature in a changing season is a benefit of kayaking in the fall. While Fish Camp was not at all noisy, particularly given the number of people present (most were concentrating on their devices), the shore lacked a certain peacefulness.  Even though I was the one with there with the purpose behind the canoe/kayak launch, I felt like, as the saying goes, a fish out of water.  I really do not know much about Pokemonn Go, much less understand its draw.  But, people were out on a nice mid-September afternoon seemingly enjoying themselves.  Yet, I think I had the better experience by enjoying a paddle upstream with the sun beating down on the river and its user.  Perhaps it is best that multitude was on land and not in the water, as over 100 more canoes or kayakers would have made my experience completely different.

Boomer Blame, part 2

I was born in 1957, a year for the largest number of births in the United States until it was surpassed by a minor amount in 2007.  I am part of the baby boom generation.  People have been giving credit or blame to baby boomers for 40 years, ever since the first part of the generation created havoc in the 1960's on the societal norms of that era.  What most probably did not know at the young age of the boomers, was that there was more than social chaos, but that the baby boomers would unleash a spending tsunami.  The spending of the baby boom generation would have implications not only for the nation, but the world economy.  My prior post dealt with demographics and this post will deal with the link between demographics and what many see as economic health.

Economic health is a relative factor, and for much of human history economic growth puttered along until the time of the industrial revolution.  A person living in the mid 16th century would have more in common with a person in the year 600 than those in the 2010's.  Many traditional societies, as hunter-gatherer societies or cultures are often referred to, would know little of the concept of economic growth.  Yet, in the western world the impression of lackluster growth has brought down presidents, and prime ministers. From cities, to counties, to states, and to the nation, growth is often thought to be necessary to drive and enhance the lifestyle enjoyed in the west.  In the United States, it is almost as if growth is part of our DNA.  The need for growth and resources drove the settlement of distant lands.  It certainly was part of the original 13 colonies, and was perhaps most clearly expressed by not only Thomas Jefferson's Louisiana Purchase, but the whole concept of manifest destiny.  Who cared about the Indians of the west, the American goal was land from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

Head west young man

The idea of manifest destiny was seen as a natural progression of geographic growth.  But, growth is affected by more than geography.  One analyst, Mike Alexander, building on research of Harry Dent, believes that a downturn in population of the main spending cohort (what he and Dent say is ages 45--49) was partially responsible for the great depression.  Prior to the great recession, Harry Dent working off birth patterns and immigration, pegged the beginning of a recession in 2007.  Dent believes that peak spending occurs in the age 45-49 age cohort. As spending drops, so would the nation enter a recession. It is all relative. In fact, he has analyzed statistics to point to age 48 as the peak year. Since 100 economicst will give 100 different answers, another economist notes that the peak spending age is 46.5 years.  Whichever it is, they are close enough for this blogger.  The difference is minor when talking about generations.

Growth of the nation

After that age, spending tends to decline.  Of course, while a person is often a statistic, we all have our own lives, interests, and spending habits.  Yet, analysts like Dent pour over the data to make generalizations, and from this data he predicted a recession 2007, which in hindsight was quite prescient.  The great recession may have begun with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and other financial institutions, but perhaps those were the catalyst.  High gas prices, in a time before fracking (which has lowered gas prices), ate into people's income and caused less discretionary income. Some homeowners had over extended on their housing loans, this was affected by overbuilding of houses and a drop in demand, due to the smaller demographic.  Generation X, that smaller demographic stuck between the boomers and the millennials suffered the worst of the consequences.  Based on pure demographics, many would have thought that Dent's forecast for the recession would have occurred earlier, but Dent had a few year delay due to his having added migration patterns in to his calcuation.

Consumers account for about 70% of total GDP

By 2007 most of the boomer spending peak was coming to an end.  While the peak spending year was in 2009, according to Doug Short, spending was starting to plateau in about 2003 to 2005.  Yes, spending still increased, but the rate of increase was decreasing and a plateau of spending was starting.  The start of the spending plateau fairly well tracks the age of the 1957 birth cohort.  It is often said that President Bill Clinton pulled off economic miracles.  But, much of the growth in his presidency was actually related to the demographics of boomers entering their peak spending years.  Yes, trade deals of Clinton and prior administrations assisted by making overseas goods so cheap, and yes China was then up and coming in the international scene as an economic powerhouse (one could say boomer spending help make the Chinese economy), and yes, Clinton lessened the rules for home ownership which helped lead to the housing crash (and recession) a decade later, yet demographics still played a large role.  The boomer cohort on spending for themselves and their children was just too many persons and too large.  Add in that all the easy solutions for economic growth have occurred, information age and the large entrance of women into the labor force, and it means that other economic crisis may be more difficult to ride out.

Peak Spending by Doug Short, 2012

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates so low for so long that they will now lack the ability to adjust to the next economic downturn.  Harry Dent has predicted, based on demographics, that the glory days of spending will not significantly increase for about 10 years, as the millennials reach peak spending age. Even then, the forecast is that spending will not increase as it had during the peak spending years of the boomers. The poor generation Xer's are just a small blip between demographic tsunami's.  They are the Rodney Dangerfield's of the current generations.  Numbers produce dominance and the Xer's lack the numbers.  As long ago as 2004 CBS broadcast "60 Minutes" talked about how millennials were now starting to shape the world.  Back in 2004 the oldest of that group was just in college and the youngest in grade school.

Boomer waves, per blog "Economic Edge"

While the millennials, that connected generation, have reformed some aspects of culture, think craft beer and local food movement, us baby boomers will likely not go quietly.  You see, as us boomers are now looking forward toward retirement, and many already having retired, our spending is lower, but we also will continue to drive some aspects in our culture.  Their is a reason so much is being written about retirement and if persons have set aside sufficient money for retirement.  It is because the boomers are driving that conversation, and financial planners are more than willing to make a buck off of the assistance,and advice, they can provide.  The boomer generation may be beyond spending on their home, large toys (think how Harley Davidson motor cycle sales boomed over ten years ago, everyone had to have a Harley), tuition for the kids, all things electronic (even now their is press coverage that cell phone sales have peaked--market saturation), and many other aspects of consumer goods.  Heck, I  now have trouble trying to find a gift for my spouse for her birthday.  Come to think of it, when did I not have trouble trying to think of a gift to buy her, so this is not a really relevant statement.  She has most of she needs or wants, and I have most of what I need or want.  We are, however, in need of a new tarp to cover our screen tent when we camp.  I guess you know you are beyond peak spending when a tarp is the top item on your need list, and you check the Menard and Farm and Fleet advertisements for tarp sales (or it is an idea of how boring our lives are).   Millennials have yet to reach peak spending.  The gen X'rs, that small group stuck between the boomers and the boomer echo (aka Millenials), essentially lack a large demographic to makeup for the boomers is what is affecting growth.  Harry Dent is now predicting a recession for 2017, so pity the poor president who becomes victim to the Dent's predicted demographic headwinds.  If you click here you can see a link to an interactive website which predicts the spending wave of growth and decline for most countries in the world.  this web site has the next growth period starting in nine years, 2025. (Take a close look at Italy, and recall from my prior post its inverted demographic pyramid and how long its period of decline is.)

Spending bublles on a web site which would seem to show peak
spending being between 50 and 54 (ixicorp.com)

I suspect I was married rather late for a boomer and hence our children were born near the end of the echo boom, so we may not have had our peak spending years between 45 and 49. We are probably a disdain for an economist like Harry Dent, we did not move up in housing as our kids entered their teen years (as he said is a common occurrence), nor have we ever had cable television, much less a satellite dish. We keep our vehicles until near death they do us part.  We also never bought some big adult toys, like a motor boat, camper or Harley; although as I age sometimes sleeping off the ground when camping in a rainstorm starts to sound pretty good.   Yet, we have computers, tablets, and my wife now even has a smartphone. Spending occurs, but as empty nesters it is now less than before--just as Harry Dent would predict. The end of our peak earning years is upon us as we look forward to retirement. Mr. Short, writing in 2012, noted that:

many analysts often think of retiring boomers as the primary drag on the economy with their transformation for the accumulation to the decumulation phase of their life-cycle, but if we understand the crucial role of consumption for our economic health (about 70% of GDP), a significant decline in the number of peak spends is a demographic headwind that will challenge us for years to come.

 Baby Boomers have been blamed for the down turn in spending.  Why would someone even think you need to keep spending as you once had?  If Boomers shoulder the blame for the downturn in spending, think what it will be like for entitlement programs, such as social security. Tune in for a later post on Boomer Blame, part 3.