Reserve

This past week I read an article on how low crude oil supplies are at a major supplier in the United States. While gas prices had been increasing for over the first half of the month, a slight decline has since occurred. Talking heads who are to know much about the oil industry and supplies were talking about crude oil reaching $100 a barrel. As gas prices have subsided the talking heads are now saying that is unlikely. 

Gasoline demand declines at the conclusion of the summer travel season, and with weakening economies in China and Europe, further decline in prices are occurring. 

In 2022 President Biden sold, in what is termed an "emergency" sale of 180 million barrels of oil from the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), in order to bring down gas prices with the approaching mid-term elections. His administration said he would resupply the reserve at a lower price point, but this has failed to occur due to the geo-political intrusion of Saudi Arabia and Russia announcing production cuts, which partially led to the increased oil prices. Maybe he will finally get his opportunity to resupply the SPR. The Energy Department indicates that the current total capacity of the SPR is 714 million barrels, although as of Sept 1, 2023 it contained only 349 million barrels, so it is about 48% full. The US currently uses about 20.1 barrels of oil a day; the 1 Sept level then means that there is just about a 17 day supply in case of an emergency. The 2022 emergency sale was more than all the combined sales (emergency, mandated, and modernization sales) that occurred from the first sale in 1985, to present time, and this even includes a mandated sale in 2022. The 2022 Biden sale was 16.6 million barrels more than all of the prior sales (which includes the 2022 mandated sale) combined. Sales have occurred since 1985. Most of the prior emergency sales were to offset the supply interruptions usually caused by Hurricanes. 

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Sites, US Dept of Energy

Just as the US strategic reserve is located in the south, Louisiana and Texas, so is much of our oil refining capacity. While 30 states have oil refineries, the US Gulf Coast states have the most. Four of the top five US refineries are in Texas, the other in Louisiana. Of the top ten refineries, only two (Indiana and California) are not a Gulf Coast state. There is some irony in the fact that two of the states frequently hit by hurricanes hold the SPR, and most of the nation's refining capacity.

Further, the move to electric is causing oil industries to think about any new investment, as they wonder whether or not the investment would not pay for itself over the long term. Remember how high gas prices in the nation were before the great recession? (I think gas prices helped cause the great recession as people moved further and further from work to get cheaper housing, thinking gas would not go up much then it went up a great deal, and they could not afford gas, food and mortgage.)

2019-2022 SPR Sales, US Dept of Energy

There are reserves for more than oil. The Federal government has (had) reserves of personal protective equipment, and ventilators. One problem, found during COVID in the spring of 2020, was the ventilators were so old that the new technicians did not know how to get them working. Some PPE expired. The government also maintains supplies of some vaccines, antibiotics, IV equipment, and some other drugs. The Department of Defense maintains stockpiles of minerals and non-mineral items from the common iodine and talc to niobium, a rare earth mineral (used in fighter jet engines). They also stock pile ammunition, but the pile must not be that large since is has pretty much been expelled in the ammunition sent to Ukraine. Russia must be in some dire situation too as they have turned to North Korea for some assistance. 

Stockpiles of goods are not unlike a reserve fund that businesses, governments and people should have (also called savings). It can get you through in a tight time frame. The Madison Metropolitan Sewerage District has a minimum cash reserve as a percent of its overall budget. The cash reserves are used to cover operating expenses between receipt of quarterly sewer charge payments, and to offset unexpected costs. 

Gas Prices Winter 2022 to Present

The world still runs on gasoline and petroleum. Although, I wonder if the coming stringent gas mileage standards will have an effect. The electric vehicle market is, according to a reporter with Yahoo Finance, softening even as more manufacturers enter the market. Electric vehicles have a number of obstacles to overcome, cost, charging stations, time to charge, not to mention battery operation in cold temperatures. Heck, the AGM battery in my car has not fully charged in over a year to allow the stop-start to operate. (With all the electronics in new cars the battery is good for only about five years now, at least from what I read several months back.) 

The SPR will be in existence for some time to come. With the SPR at less than half its authorized capacity, I am not sure much wiggle room remains without putting the nation at risk in case a emergency event occurred where petroleum is need to offset disruptions from catastrophic events from nature or humans. Just like we have cash reserves in government, and in our private homes, so too should the government have a reserve of petroleum, and other valued resources. The main thing is to use the reserve wisely.

Land Girling

The Thursday after Labor Day, Land Girl and I went up north. We returned home the following Wednesday. Given the time of year, when we arrived home land girling activities abounded. I suppose I have coined a new word in "land girling." What does land girling involve? That will be partially explained in this post.  But, it is essentially chores and activities that involve raising, processing, of fruits and vegetables (ie produce), but I would add even sewing and other related  activities. 

Land Girl had experience with land girling activities by growing up on a hobby farm in southeast Wisconsin. As the oldest child she had to help tend and butcher the animals from chicks to cattle. You can take the land girl out of the country, but not the country out of the land girl. She had a busy few days after our return. Over thirty years ago, I was given her name as someone to possibly date, and that person referred to her as "an old-fashioned girl." I look at the way she used "old fashioned" as a synonym for the term land girling.

Some garden produce

So what were her land girling duties? First, before leaving, our neighbor gave us two 5 gallon buckets of pears that we put in the basement while we were away to complete ripening process. On the day we returned home, we had to get unpacked, laundry completed, and activities associated with the house, such as water the plants, check the garden and other chores that were put off for the week. After that, Land Girl got right to making pear sauce. It is a big job, washing, peeling, slicing, cooking, processing (through the Foley Food Mill) and then canning in a water bath. There is no pear peeler-corer-slicer as there is for apples. She did part of the pears Wednesday and finished the pears on Thursday. Between the two days, we got the equivalent of 14 and 1/2 quarts of pear sauce. A good number were in pint jars, meaning more water baths. After having canned, her favorite sound is hearing the lid pop down to seal. 

Washing grapes

If processing and canning ten gallons of pears was not enough, she moved on to grapes. We picked some grapes before we left, and picked more a day or two after our return home. We picked over fifteen gallons of grapes and she processed all into grape juice. The method used produces a nice thick juice which is closer to the consistency of a milk shake, than water. Well, OK, a milk shake I like, not the concrete versions she likes that you have to eat with a spoon, and not drink. Having to use a spoon on a milk shake, you may as well have had a dish or an ice cream cone. The grape procedure is similar to the pear, but lacks the peeling and slicing. We did have to pull the grapes off the stems and bunches, which is very time consuming. This makes me wonder how it is done at vineyards. There must be an easier method. The grapes are then cooked down and also processed through the Foley Food Mill. The result is that thicker consistency grape juice, which can be drank as is, or diluted with water or soda. From the over 15 gallons of grapes we processed 21 quarts of grape juice. With seven quarts to a water bath, that was three water baths. I think this was accomplished over two days, too. If all this fruit was not sufficient land girling, she also had to process several eggplant that we grew, and some tomatoes. The eggplant were cooked and frozen, while the tomatoes were canned. The major food portion of the work, was accomplished in between making dinner and other land girling activities--like tending to the flower garden. 

Making grape juice and canning

She may have been finished land girling with food, but not all land girl activities involve food. She also sews. She completed some seamstress work for some persons. Before we left, she saw the need for our camper to have more color, so she sewed two pillow cases out of some fabric she discovered online. I never thought of the need for more color, but she apparently did. That is why I am not an interior decorator. She posted her creation on our RV (T@B) Facebook page and people really liked the pillow cases. She has also been sewing for the expected arrival of our first grandchild.

I kept track of her pear and grape canning

As I start to write this on Saturday, Sep 23, Land Girl went from sewing to working in the flower beds. She dug up many of the iris bulbs. She also cleaned out dead vegetation from other beds. She is multi-motivated when it comes to her land girling activities.

Land Girl needs to keep busy, otherwise she gets, well, grumpy. Land girling activities help solve that need for a person who has such a difficult time relaxing. Our freezer is full, and if we get a decent crop of Brussel sprouts, I am not sure how we will be able to freeze them. The produce, requiring land girling are pretty much near its end--besides Brussel Sprouts we have kale and collard greens which we can harvest and freeze for use in soups and smoothies. We have one additional eggplant that has formed and a few pepper, and a few sun gold tomato plants, but all three are nearing the end of production. It is now fall, and the weather and sun light is not conducive to produce production. I have not been successful in getting a decent fall crop of lettuce and other greens. Come late fall and winter her pursuits will have to involve other land girling activities, than produce. 

Images by author, Sep 2023

Turf Wars

On Monday evening, 11 Sep 2023, a professional Football game featured the NY Jets and the Buffalo Bills. NY Jet QB, Aaron Rodgers, formerly of the GB Packers, injured his ankle on his fourth play of the game as a Jet. There were people that thought he was faking the injury, for the sake of television coverage, and to draw attention to himself. That aside, his injury turned out to be a torn Achilles tendon that will have him out of football for the whole season. It is a devastating injury.  That injury has amped up calls from the National Football Players Association for all fields to use natural grass. The following Wednesday he already had surgery. 

McFarland, WI High School--Artificial Surface Field

Roger Goodell, the master mind behind the money of the NFL such as its 17 game season, its overseas play, its Thursday night games through the season, has argued to let science dictate. But, what science do you believe? He points to some studies to prove his point that an artificial playing surface is safe. The NFLPA points to other medical studies which note that artificial surfaces result in a higher rate of injury than natural grass. The sad thing is our language has so many euphemisms, such that our language gets screwed up. For example, for artificial surfaces many refer to them as turf. I will refer to them as artificial surfaces. To me turf is grass, that is natural grass, not an artificial playing field. It is like people using the term of solar farm, and a solar farm is not a farm, but an electrical generating facility, or power plant. "Solar farm" puts a more positive spin on the power generating facility. A farm is a tract of land that grows crops, and livestock for consumption. You do not eat solar power. Back to artificial surfaces.

Some stadiums have domes, but technology today would allow the use of natural grass in dome stadiums. For example, the Arizona Cardinals, and Las Vegas Raiders stadiums are both enclosed, but have a roll-out natural grass field to get sunlight. The Vegas stadium has an artificial surface field that is used by a college team, which preferred the artificial surface. The Viking stadium is in downtown Minneapolis and likely lack the ability for a roll out field. The Green Bay Packers use high intensity lights to help the field stay green during dark winter days. Fifteen of the NFL teams have their home games on natural grass with 17 on an artificial surface, with one of those being the Jets, who share a stadium with the Giants. The two LA teams also share a stadium. It is said that grass can take only so many events in one season, and that is the reason why so many high schools are moving to an artificial surface. The trend in Dane County began with Middleton High School, and it is now very common. McFarland High School installed an artificial surface as part of a large building binge a few years ago. 

Arizona Cardinal Home Stadium
Field with Natural Grass Outside to absorb the sun

Artificial surfaces have a high installation, but low maintenance cost. However, Front Office Sports reports that it would cost the NFL $12 million to convert all of the artificial surfaced NFL stadiums to natural grass. The price includes money for demolition, underlayment, and irrigation systems. And, they even allocated money for lay and play sod. That is about 21% of QB Joe Burrow's (who laid an egg in the first game of the season) annual salary. (Perhaps until Mahomes restructured his contract, Burrow was the highest paid player in the NFL.) It is affordable. 

The question arises, are the varied artificial surfaces safe? It is not necessarily an easy answer, as technology also seems to have improved artificial surfaces, so it is said. I found one on-line study which reported on an analysis of 53 articles in medical journals from 1973 to 2019. However, of the studies on artificial surfaces, most (13 of 18) were on the newer generation of artificial surface materials. The analysis found that ankle and foot injuries were more common on artificial surfaces than natural grass. This was the case for both old and new "turf" fields. It also reported that knee and hip injuries were greater for soccer players on an artificial than a natural grass surface. Further, it found that high level football players were more likely to suffer a knee injury on an artificial surface than a grass surface. The studies Roger Goodell is looking at may have been the ones funded by the artificial surface industry. That study noted that only a few studies concluded that injuries on grass were higher than artificial surfaces, all of those having been funded by the industry. They plan on converting, perhaps temporarily, some artificial surfaces from fake grass to natural grass for a soccer tournament. This has Packer left tackle upset at how pro football players are treated.

The Aaron Rodgers discussion seemed to focus on non-contact injuries, basically insinuating that contact injuries are not explainable by the playing surface. Yet, that is wrong, as the way the foot grabs an artificial surface can be too much, even on the softer ones which can be too soft. Aaron Rodgers made that comment about too soft a field holding the foot too long regarding the new field installed where the Jets and Giants play. 

Arizona Cardinal Home Stadium
Field being moved in from outdoors

Eli Manning, a now retired super bowl winning QB, who played at the stadium in which Rodgers was injured, (although on a different playing surface) seems to think the surface had no effect on Rodgers' ankle injury. He also argues that the artificial surface is more reliable and consistent for play compared to a grass field. For example, he says that a game the prior day (Giants--Dallas) in rain would have affected the natural surface to make it less playable the Monday. Apparently, Eli wants perfect conditions. Maybe he did not like to get muddy. The two NY teams played on that weekend at home due to 9/11, and the NFL thinking it would be a good thing. Not because they both had to play at home that same weekend. The NFL simply could make one home game a week on a playing surface. Having an artificial surface may provide the NFL more leeway in scheduling than real grass. Another reason why Roger Goodell may not like a real grass field.

The sad thing is it took an injury to a four time NFL MVP to bring the discussion into the open. Meanwhile, artificial surface use keeps expanding, due to its lower maintenance. They are now in use in high schools, and becoming more common for many programs and districts. Although it has a high upfront cost, which as part of a larger school referendum is rather a minor percent. In McFarland, say the field cost $1 million, not a high percent of a $65 million dollar referendum. Schools are notorious for wasting taxpayer dollars, doing little maintenance to justify new buildings, and the voters eat it up. For the sake of the children. But, apparently, these same voters look the other way when the health of the soccer and football players is at risk on an artificial surface. How much punishment can a body take playing on an artificial surface. I have to think there is some type of long-term wear on varied structures of the body--almost like concussions, but for different body areas. The more concussions you have, the more dangerous it becomes.

Many people do not like Aaron Rodgers, but they should not let that blind them to the severity of his injury. They can revel all they want in their schadenfreude, but they too should be concerned. It could be another player that suffers a similar injury. If Roger Goodell wants a 17 game season to continue, he has to bear in mind the attrition of quality players as the season goes on. It may make the Goodell Love Fest, the Super Bowl, more about a team that had the fewest injuries, than about the best team in the NFL. We should not equate a Super Bowl win with the best team given injuries. I also wonder if those who play on grass for home games are at a disadvantage, of now totally understanding the intricacies of play on artificial surfaces. The No Fun League is all about money for Roger, and the owners of the 31 teams, and the one community owned team. Roger's annual salary of almost $64 million makes the automaker CEO salaries seem minor. From an economic standpoint Roger and the NFL do not make money, they take money. That is why the turf wars will continue--it is all about what Roger wants.

Images from Google

Harvest Time

August through October begins a busy season for those who tend or till the earth, whether gardeners or farmers, or vintners. This post is about harvesting hazelnuts, often not known as American filbert trees. My sister has been harvesting hazelnuts for a several years, and this year Land Girl and I spent that hot Saturday of Labor Day weekend assisting the harvest. Hazelnuts are perhaps best known for being in Nutella, but the American Hazelnut Company, you can find their website here, is trying to advance varied products produced from the small nut. That company is a consortium of six growers, of which my sister is one. 

Harvester going into a row of hazelnuts

Hazelnuts fit well with the US penchant for healthy and/or gluten free food. The American Hazelnut Company makes snack treats, cooking oil, and flour. Land Girl is now using hazelnut oil for much of our cooking. I drizzle some over the popcorn I make. The Arbor Day Foundation says this about hazelnut oil: "Compared to other cooking oils, hazelnut oil has really strong good fats, creating a healthy cooking oil alternative. It has been scientifically proven that a balanced intake of omega 3 and 6 along with a high level of omega 9 reduce the risk of cardiovascular related disease." I can also assert, that after assisting with the harvest by transferring the hazelnuts and some related detritus (husks and leaf residue) into bags that such  handling also provides some cardio-vascular benefit, at least when it is 85 to 90 degrees and you are in the sun. 

Pushing in the branches for the harvester

Hazelnuts limit erosion since they are a perennial plant that has a groundcover between the plants. A great crop for the hills and valleys of the driftless area of the state. It is a good alternative to water intense, California grown almond. After being established, little input is required. However, my sister's shrubs after 12 years of growth are so large that they need to be pruned. Growing of hazelnuts are so new in Wisconsin and in the upper Midwest that there is apparently little literature on best pruning methods. Hence, she plans to experiment with a few different pruning alternatives, including coppicing. She first planted in 2011, and has over 1000 hazelnut plants. 

Hazelnut husk on shrub

I found out a few things: (1) It is a very labor intensive process; (2) There is a good deal of detritus that goes with the harvest; and (3) they are a complex plant. Hazelnuts in the upper Midwest grow on bushes. Whereas, in New Jersey with a slightly warmer climate, for example, they grow on a tree. I am not sure which would be easier to harvest. On a tree, I wonder if they could be harvested by putting a net under the tree and shaking the tree, much like cherries, and other nuts are harvested. But, in Wisconsin we deal with bushes. 

Harvesting 

Methods differ, but the process is similar for varied nuts. First, they are removed from the tree, second they are dried, husked and then, at a food grade processing facility the shells removed. Almonds harvesting involves shaking the tree and the nuts fall on the ground, where they are left for about a week to dry, they are then swept to the aisle, and picked up, later husked and stored. When needed they are then processed.

The hazelnut harvest for my sister begins a large machine, that had been used to harvest blueberries in New York State. My sister acquired it to harvest hazelnuts. This large machine, which takes one person to drive, but at least four others to properly run, goes over the bush. It has beaters that rotate that are to brush off the hazel and its husk. Two persons, one on each side use a long pole to push the bush to the open belly of the machine where the beaters are located. Some, particularly the not quite ripe hazels are not always popped off the bush, leaving the need to hand pick. I wonder if part is related to the height of the shrubs bending over and too tall for the beaters. At least two people are required one on each side at the back of the machine to manage the bins; four persons, or two on each side makes the operation run even better. The hazel nuts are supposed to fall in one bin, and the debris blown into another bin. It does not always work like that, as the blowers have to be adjusted for the proper condition. The bins are dumped into large bags, which are set in the rows, and then picked up and dumped into smaller bags, that are like large onion bags. These bags are then hung in a place to dry (an old shipping container converted to a drying house). 

Filling bags for drying

The large onion sized bags are filled with the nuts, husks, and detritus, from the large green bags. IWe tried to remove what we could, but it is extremely tedious. Then there is the drying process. Drying is important. The less ripe hazels apparently will dry in this process. For the harvest that day we had 14, but deducting two young kids, we had 12 workers, each required for some sort of harvest complex that is the only thing that overdoes the complexity of the hazelnut. The day we assisted, the 12 people spent a total of 72 person hours for seven rows mainly of mechanical harvest, although one to two assisted in handpicking or picking up from the ground. Friday four to five people did the harvest and spent six hours, meaning 24 person hours. Over two days, the harvest was completed by machine at 96 person hours. The rows are then handpicked to get the hazelnuts missed by the mechanical harvester. One row has to be handpicked, as do the more recently planted cultivars. I do not know how many person hours are then spent handpicking, but it may well exceed the person hours of the mechanical harvest.

Hazelnut bags in drying container

This is a labor intensive process. My take is the harvest from the shrubs takes a minimum of 11 persons to be somewhat efficient, and best with at least 12 or 14 persons. Even more, could then handpick the rows after the mechanical harvester went though.

After drying, a machine acquired from Tukey (and not my fantasy football team), yes the country, is used to remove the husks and the detritus from the hazels. Hence, the hazelnuts are handled by (some being handpicked that are missed) emptying the bins into the green containers, picking up the green containers, emptying, by using a small bucket the contents of the green bags into the large onion type bags, hanging the onion type bags, emptying the bags after drying into the husker, and loading the husked nuts into bags to ship to the final processing place. Who knows how many times a nut is handled at the processing facility.

Area of hazelnuts
Source: Google images, mark by author

The long and the short of it is I know why hazelnuts are expensive. It is a labor intensive process. I suspect most large growers have more efficient methods of handling the harvest, drying and processing. There has to be a more efficient way for large growers. The nut is handled a great deal between pulling off the shrub to sending the dried husked nut away. Handling by hand involves people and makes it labor intensive. Harvest time of hazelnuts takes a great deal of person hours.

Photos by author, Sept 2023.

Life and Marriage

Everyone makes choices, some of which are life choices. Life choices significantly affect the course of your life. Marriage is a major life choice. I made that choice when I asked my spouse to marry me, and later committed to that marriage on 27 Oct 1990. This date, 2 September 2023,is a unique date in my life: for it is on this day that I will have been married for 11,998 days, which is equal to the number of days in life I have been single (11,998 days). 

It is quite a milestone, for when I wake up the morning of 3 Sept 2023 I will have been married for more than half my days on earth. Now, most people may not think this important, but for some unknown reason it strikes me as significant. Although, I also think the 45th parallel--90th meridian meeting point in Marathon County is interesting. Many tend not to care about that location being only one of four places on earth, and the only of easy access. My wife is older than me, the cougar that she is, so she would have to add more days to reach the point in time where half her life has been in marriage to me. I have not figured out that date, and if she thinks it important, she can do it on her own. However, just like she did not find the meeting of the 45th--90th point very interesting, she would think 2 Sep 2023 a pointless date. 

Land Girl, being a Water Girl

My life as an adult is more defined by marriage and our two children than by any other aspect. When I was in the workforce, work was important, and some weeks I would not see the kids for two days or more when night meeting kept me away to until the wee hours of the next day, only to have to wake at 6 am to get back to work at by 7 am. I arrived early to work knowing I got more accomplished in the hour before people started calling and coming in than during the rest of the day. However, work was to support and benefit my spouse and family. Even though hour wise work took more time of the week, I like to think I put my wife and family before my career. 

As is typical in marriage, what is mine is hers and what is hers is hers. Although, I like to think we have a team approach to marriage. In some aspects she wants me as the decision maker. For example, when choosing a campsite. With my feet being so bad, a short walk to the restroom is more important than it used to be. When our kids were young, while we did not have a camcorder, many young families did and I realized the purpose of the father was to run the camcorder. Other than that, the wife has most of the control. If you don't believe me, ask Ray Barone. It took Raymond some time to realize that the power in his family rested with Deborah. I had no such illusions of who the power in my household rested with. 

Cold day camping, she is trying to get a 
text message sent. 

Another area where I am a decision maker is what to watch on Netflix, or perhaps PBS Passport, our two subscription channels. We have never had cable, and the lack of good digital TV reception sometimes makes it difficult to watch a program on standard over the air television, so we rely more on Netflix. There can be too many choices and one can spend several minutes finding a program to watch, and even longer to find a good program. Too many choices.

My wife is also a nurse. I have done my best to keep her skill set fresh, although I am not sure she appreciates that effort. If she was not  around, I am not sure who would pull out all the slivers I get in my hands from gardening. If a sliver is present, my fingers find it. 

2021 Photo

In cleaning the house, I now like to scrub the floor, so I can find that rare time, when it is her, to say: "Somebody got my clean floor dirty." I realized I did not know her magic formulas for when she mixes the floor and the bathroom counter/sink cleaners, so I asked her to write it down, so I can fill it if I run out. 

She is my life partner and I would not give that up. She knows me better than I know myself.  We are a good fit in many ways. We both like to camp, and garden. We like working on projects together. We also complement each other, she likes to cook and I like to eat. She has taken on much more than she should with the my foot problems. She is a hard worker. She is most like a hummingbird, they seldom sit, and if they do it is not for long, and neither does she. Her restless, pent up energy is always on display. I don't believe R-E-L-A-X is in her vocabulary. Her bit of relaxation, I have come to believe, comes in beating me at cribbage, or Yahtzee.  

As I wake up 3 Sep, I need to recall how important my Land Girl is to me, and from here on out more have my life will have been spent married to her than to life as unattached.  

Weather Forecast

With all the technology weather forecasters have at their disposal, I would not have thought that they could be off as much as they were during our 4 night camping trip in northeast Wisconsin from August 20 to 24. Even a day ahead of time the forecast was remarkably wrong. 

About 1:30 pm Sunday

On Sunday morning we departed for a camping trip to our favorite campground in northeast Wisconsin. We arrived at the campground at about 12:30 pm, and selected a site we had never been in before. Prior to leaving on Sunday morning, I used my Weather Channel app to check the weather for the nearest community, Armstrong Creek. This is what the Sunday (8/20) forecast predicted:

Sunday- 82-53 mstly sunny; Monday-77-55 ptly to mstly cloudy; Tuesday-71-57 AM rain, then clearing with sun in the afternoon;  Wednesday-94-61, sunny; Thursday 85-58 sunny; Fri 74-49 rain in AM and mstly cloudy.

Loons

This is what he weather turned out to be: Sun-72 Ptly to cloudy; Mon-abt 67-52 Cloudy and cool; Tues-AM rain (1:30 am to 9:30 am), 62 high; fog over the lake; Wed abt 67 cloudy low abt 62; Thurs drizzle and cloudy, returned home due to rain in forecast for Thursday.

On Tuesday we went to town to get more ice for the cooler and sad to say, the sorry weather was present for the Laona State Bank customer appreciation day. I am not sure what food they cooked up, but it sure smelled good. I almost want to open an account so if we are up there next time for the appreciation day we an partake. Anyway, we checked our phones for the forecast, that is when we found rain on Thursday. However, Wednesday was now predicted to be 84 and sunny. Much better temperature than the Sunday forecast of 94 on Wednesday. The weather was so cool on Tuesday, that upon our return from town we started a campfire that we kept going all day until we went into the camper sometime after 8:30 pm. We also had a campfire Wednesday morning due to the cool weather. 

Tuesday early afternoon temperature

With the rain we adjusted our meal plan. When the rain intensity decreased for a few minutes Tuesday morning, my wife went to our chuck box and got the coffee pot, tea cups/tea bags, and the oatmeal. She turned on the propane and we heated the water and drank our tea and I ate my oatmeal while it started to again pour cats and dogs. We usually cook and eat outside, but this event is why we bought a camper with an indoor stove, to cook inside in rain. On two camping trips last year or the year before knowing rain was forecasted in late afternoon, we had our main meal during lunch in non-rain, and then made sandwiches when the rain started to come so we could then eat in the camper for our dinner. 

On Wednesday we were at the beach and a forest service worker showed up. She commented how the forecast Monday had Wednesday having a high of 94 Wed and sunny, while the Tuesday forecast changed that to a a high of 84 and sunny. She then said the Wednesday morning forecast changed the high Wednesday to 73 and mostly cloudy but with periods of sun. we had the sun shine a few brief moments, emphasis on brief, on Wednesday early afternoon. Hence, the forecast, even two days earlier was over 20 degrees off from the temperature experienced. 

Campfire

We made do with the weather, playing Yahtzee, cribbage and solitaire on each other's aces. Cribbage is somewhat new to us, and I am not sure if we were playing and counting correctly, but the wife was happy because over two days we played six games of which she won five. I have not figured out the knack for what cards to keep and what to put in the crib. She always seemed to have the right card at the right moment. 

Even with all the cool weather I did swim a few times, but no early morning swims. The weather and water were just to cool. I was looking forward to a sunny 84 degree day Wednesday to be in the water more often, but that was not to be. I did kayak everyday. Tuesday I kayaked when the fog was most dense over the lake where it was difficult to see less than a 100' in front of you. My wife thought I might get lost. Prudence suggested keeping the shore line in sight. The moisture created by the fog enveloped our campsite and made everything damp. We did notice that the eagles and loons were much more quiet when the fog was over the lake than they otherwise were.

Maybe we jinked ourselves signing up for four nights, and leaving a fifth night open as an option. With rain predicted Thursday morning, we packed the car the night before to keep the gear dry. Part of me hoped the day would arise bright and sunny, but that was not to be. We had drizzle, and it was heavily overcast, so we decided to depart. I think we reached west of Fond du Lac before we really saw the sun. Meaning much of the eastern part of the state was under heavy cloud cover. 

Fog enveloping the lake Tuesday

While Madison, and even Minneapolis, were experiencing record highs or near record highs on Tuesday and Wednesday, the campground we were located never really succeeded in getting to 65 and 70 respectively. It fell a few degrees short. Temperatures never came close to forecasted highs. I am not sure what was occurring, but the wind at the campground was always from the north or northeast for our stay, not a direction to bring in warm temperatures. Minneapolis is about 44.97 degrees north latitude and our campground was about 45.70 degrees north. Each degree of latitude is equal to about 70 miles, but one is much further east (campground) but is less than 70 miles more north of the Twin Cities.

Fog taken over the lake

On Thursday when we departed in a drizzle, the temperature was about 60 and arrived home to a temperature that would be 95 and over 70%  humidity. We generally expect warmer weather when we arrive home, but this was a system shock. We unpacked, put up the screen tent to complete its drying, and did laundry. I always wish I had a lake to jump into when we get home in hot weather. 

Fall tree color starting

Fall comes early to the Northwoods. When we camped here two weeks ago a few maples were turning, but this trip, looking at the woods across the lake, hints of yellows were already in the trees. As usual, the loons and eagles were present, which kept our attention to the lake. The fog on Tuesday seemed to keep them quiet most of the day. As the trees now start to turn as the days grow shorter, and the weather cooler, fall will arrive soon. I was respecting more and more the forecasts, as prior camping trips showed a fair amount of accuracy, although timing may have been off. It is now time to question that respect.

Buffer Zone

When Russia invaded Ukraine last year it should not have come as a surprise to the elites and power brokers of the world. After all,  several years earlier Russia "annexed" part Crimea from Ukraine. Russia has been wanting a buffer zone from the west since shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Further, the Russian desire for a buffer zone is not new, and relates, in part, to its geographic makeup. 

Ukraine and Russia have a long history. Kyivan Rus was a country back in 1054 which was larger than the Ukraine we know today. In the 13th century this country was run over by the Mongols. In the 14th century Lithuania threw out the Mongols and unified this area with Poland. The first use of the Ukrainian flag came following WWI in 1918. Shortly after, due to Germany's defeat in WWI, Ukraine was absorbed into the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). It was not an easy takeover. Josef Stalin's farm collectivization caused the deaths of 4 million Ukrainians. In December 1991 over 90% of Ukrainians vote for independence from the USSR. Yet there were wide variations in the voting with high numbers in Western Ukraine, and much lower numbers in the districts near Russia. 

Major Russian Rivers

Russia is markedly different than the United States, and we Americans have a tendency to view the world and all that it is from the American perspective. However, thinking that all nations are meant to recognize our values and our systems has not shown to always be transferrable. We view our American values, particularly those in the Washington think tanks, as universal. As Robert Kaplan writes, the Romans thought their values universal. They were not. Kaplan also comments that imperialism can be a relatively weak form of sovereignty exercised by a great power. Along with imperialism is also conquest. George Keenan, an American diplomat, who was born and raised in Milwaukee, viewed conquest as a source of weakness. Once you engage another country the invading country has the obligation and responsibility for governance. Two situations prove this point. 

First, when the US invaded Iraq, Pope John Paul II mightily proclaimed against the war saying, much as Pope Francis does today about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, that it is a defeat for humanity. The Pope also said, not unlike a mother telling a child in a dime store, you break it you own it. The Vatican understood the situation on the ground in the Mid-east better than did the west. Here was a case where the US intervention was brought about by a certain hubris of American values. It did not end well.  

Kyivan Rus, 1054
National Geographic

Second, part of the reason for the decline and fall of the Soviet Union was because Russia had to support a number of satellite states. One would think Russia would learn from the Soviet experience, but perhaps they have a certain amount of hubris too (after all they suspected their invasion of Ukraine would be quick). This is where geography comes into play. 

The geography of Russia is markedly different than that of the temperate United States. Russia's inland streams and rivers tend to run north and south, unable to have unified the wide east-west nature of the country. By comparison, the US not only has almost more navigable inland waters than the rest of the world combined, but our geography is different. The great Mississippi runs north and south, but it is fed by great rivers than run at an angle--the Missouri, Snake, Wisconsin, Ohio, Platte, Arkansas, Colorado, Tennessee to name the major ones. These rivers helped to unify the nation when water transport was the most efficient method--it unified a nation and created a culture. 

Geographically, Russia has lacked the unifying nature of rivers present in the United States. This is important, because they have long viewed the need for a buffer from Europe. The Center for Strategic and International Studies in a June 28, 2017 document noted that Russia views sectarian strife, and fragmentation as destabilizing, much like the West does, but they use a different approach or method to address this challenge. Their  approach, creation of buffer zones, was seen in Crimea and they have now applied it to Ukraine. This article notes: 

Russia perceives its own actions as defensive and mirrors Western accusations by claiming foreign military buildup and intelligence services in its near abroad seek to destroy its unity and territorial integrity. No clear distinction is drawn by either document between Russia’s internal and external borders. On the contrary, neighbor countries allegedly serve as an entry point to shape Russia’s information space and its internal sphere, undermining its national interests. In this perspective, radical political change at Russia’s outskirts must be thwarted at any cost and could possibly lead to conflict.

The article goes on to specifically comment on buffers: 

The perceived need to recreate a buffer zone at Russia’s borders against the West has pervaded Russia’s leadership since the early 1990s. It started with the trauma of the fragmentation of the Soviet Union, the voluntary demise of which Vladimir Putin later called “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” At the turn of the 2000s, Russia, fearing unrest in the North Caucasus (Chechnya and later Dagestan, Ingushetia, or Kabardino-Balkaria) could lead to attempts at secession in its inner abroad, responded heavy handedly.

Russia was concerned about its former satellite countries to its south, as it is concerned about its former satellites to the west. Clearly, Putin is desirous of remaking Russia as the old USSR. That Russia is desirous of a buffer goes back over 100 years to Polish leader Jozef Pilsudski (diacritical marks missing), who coined the term Intermarium, which Kaplan notes is Latin for between the seas, in this case the Baltic in the north and the Black to the southeast, and eastward to the Caucasus mountains, to the Caspian Sea. Pilsudski, says Kaplan, concluded that this will be the new battleground. Kaplan claims that Russia is still very big, but "it is an insecure land power that has suffered invasions not only from Hitler and Napoleon, but from Swedes, Lithuanians, and Poles and consequently requires a buffer zone of soft influence in Central and Eastern Europe." Not only did former parts of the Soviet Union provide this buffer, but so did their satellite countries--Poland, East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, down to Yugoslavia. The Iron Curtain was largely a result of FDR"s capitulation to Stalin at the Yalta conference, setting forth ramifications we continue to face today:. Russia wants their buffer back. Russia views the eastern regions of Ukraine as dominated by ethnic Russians. This was heard before, when the west appeased Hitler with the Sudetenland, the ethnic German part of then Czechoslovakia. Appeasement is easy to see after the fact. The problem with what the Brits did with Hitler in giving away part of Czechoslovakia, is they never asked the Czechs. Hitler was not pleased with just the Sudetenland and later invaded and took all of Czechoslovakia. As we know, Hitler and his desire for lebensraum grew to all of Europe and beyond.

Great powers have a tendency to do what they wish. When faced with the Iranian hostage crises, and the Soviet aggression in Afghanistan, President Jimmy Carter outlined, in his Jan 23, 1980 State of the Union speech what became known as the Carter Doctrine, in which he said:

Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force. (Source: https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1977-80v18/d45 )

This doctrine has been used to advance military intervention by the US since 1980. Russia has a long memory, and probably wonders why a US sphere of influence can extend to the Middle East, but Russia's cannot extend west to adjacent countries? Oil is a powerful resource, and played an important role in US foreign policy. Ukraine also contains certain valuable resources--fertile plains, and important waterways. Water is quickly becoming the new oil. From oil to food, resource availability also show how geography shapes not only the world but how and why geo-political conflicts arise.

Ukraine 1918 with current border outlined
National Geographic

This is not to say that Russia has a right to the buffer, much less a right to invade Ukraine, but this does help explain their point of view. It seems to me, that one has to know the interests and designs of another, so as to understand and anticipate, and decide what level of attention may be best. I guess it is like interest-based bargaining. Will a cease fire or negotiated settlement result? My American mind says that Russia is too far into the conflict for any settlement. Pope Francis, may well be right that we are on the cusp of of WWIII by the insidious nature of of small conflicts around the globe that ferment and become greater and greater. The conflict in Ukraine is just one aspect of current global discord. The funny thing is as the world becomes more globalized more diverse conflicts seem to develop. I believe part of this lies in a people's need to be tied to a certain geography and culture. 

The US keeps funding the war effort at great levels. Of funding provided to Ukraine from Jan 24, 2022 to May 31, 2023 61% or $46.6 billion was for military assistance, $3.9 billion, 5%, for humanitarian assistance, and $26.4 billion, 34%, financial assistance. The great majority of aid to Ukraine for its war effort comes from the US. The US will now provide F-16 fighter jets, and train Ukraine fighter pilots for their use in the conflict. In his farewell address, President Eisenhower made this prescient comment: "we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist." 

The war in Ukraine shows three key points. First, that the US is still required to provide the might in European conflicts. Second, that Russia is acting on its desire for a buffer. This region, as an area of conflict was noted over 100 years ago, determined in large part by geography. It seems that the west was not prepared for this invasion. Third, as JPII and Francis have commented, war is always a failure, regardless of what side wins. Geo-political conflicts are always difficult, but the underlying geography provides a partial explanation.

Sources:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-design-black-sea-extending-buffer-zone

2017. Kaplan, Robert D. Earning the Rockies: How Geography Shapes America's Role in the World, Random House, NY NY.

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1977-80v18/d45

"Ukraine, A Year at War", National Geographic, map insert, June 2023. 

https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts?gclid=CjwKCAjwoqGnBhAcEiwAwK-OkWakGIBx2V0rcbWzhEsperf7Jo-_aETNzDwKq-YBz2xjrORf6GRzVRoCIWwQAvD_BwE

https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/president-dwight-d-eisenhowers-farewell-address