Oh, Weather!

It seems that with all of the fancy and expensive equipment weather forecasting is still more an art than a science. This year, areas that were predicted to receive, as close as a couple hours to the rain event, less than half an inch received 2" or more. This occurred a few weeks ago at my house. Rain is highly variable. Two weeks ago we had rain events on two consecutive days of 1" and .9" yet areas north of Madison did not receive rain. Oh, Weather! Is about all one can say.

In a significant contrast to last year, when it was particularly dry, this year it has been wet. The local newspaper reported, for the Madison area, that the 76 days from May 1 through July 15 was the wettest on record. Which is saying a great deal for what is normally the wettest time of the year. During that period, the area received 21.85" of rain almost twice the normal amount. Further, only 30 of the 76 days, so well less than half, did not receive any precipitation. There was an anomaly, as from May 14 to 18, was the only five day period without a day of rain. Meaning, that we really had no dry spells. 

2022 photo by author

Weather predictors like to use averages, but sometimes we are at one extreme (last year drought) to the other (really wet this year) and I suppose the average of the two is about normal, or perhaps more precipitation than normal. I like to call myself average, as I am about average height and weight, and probably near the top of the bell curve in terms of intelligence. I guess being at the top of the bell curve means I can go either way, like rainfall.

The ground has now become saturated from all the rain, it is now to the point that it was also reported that there is sufficient moisture to withstand a drought. At a recent MMSD meeting, it was reported that the sewer treatment plant is now treating about 50 million gallons a day (mgd) as compared to the normal 40 to 41. Last year it was about 38 mgd, and some months was as low as 36 mgd. To show the saturation of the ground, that one day we received the 1" in my rain gauge, the treatment plant, which sits less than four miles (as the crow flies) northwest of my house, the plant noticed an increase in less than one hour time. A fellow commissioner who lives north of Lake Mendota noted that earlier this summer, the lake saw a 2" rise in water level in less than six hours, which is a good deal of increase for a lake the size of Mendota. Interestingly, the only no-wake zone on the Madison lakes so far this year is in a bay that is part of Lake Monona (how much the suck the muck campaign, which you can read abut here, contributed to better stream flow to get water out of the lakes quicker, I do not know but Mendota's lake level is still at least 2" high). Increases in flow to the plant occur from a few things: first, water in basements which water goes to the sanitary system by the floor drain, second, people who have illegally connected sumps to the drain system, third, (an likely the main issue) is what we refer to as I/I, or inflow and infiltration. When the water table gets equal to or above a sewer pipe bad joints can leak into the pipe (water seeks the easiest path, so it acts like drain tile) and it also can get water through manhole covers when streets or other location get too inundated with water. This goes for all sewer pipes from some laterals, to local mains, to major interceptors. These are main causes of the 10 mgd a day flow more than normal. 

The worst effect on the treatment plant, or sanitary sewer overflows, is when a large storm occurs in the region and inundates the sewer system and sometimes the lift stations. The main effect on lift stations is a power outage. The district often has two different power feeds to each lift station, but a couple years ago a storm knocked power out of both feeds to one station and an overflow occurred. We have increased the number of portable generators from 1 to 2 and upgrades of most pump stations we now add a generator. This provides resiliency to the system. One storm this year saw several pumps go without power, and the crew hauled portable generators between pumping stations to avoid overflows. Empty one well, take it to another station to empty that one, and later go back to empty the well at the first one, and repeat. Fortunately, the storm was late at night, during low flow.  

High flow also causes water levels in nearby wetland and low areas near my house to become even more inundated with water. This affects habitat for animals, and in particular, the deer. As we did in the wet events of 2007 to 2008, we have seen more deer damage to our plants, and perhaps even ore so than what occurred in those years, as we have tried to diversify our flower plants. With the deer this year, we have only managed to diversify what they like to munch on. Before 2010, they had eaten hostas, tomato and pepper plants, lily of the valley, roses and violets. This year they have eaten cucumbers, tomatoes, peppers, anemone, Maltese Cross, morning glory, milkweed, lilies (two types), hosta, violets, calendula, roses, hollyhock and violets. Many they just mowed off a couple feet off the ground, meaning they really chose not to bend down. They are not so much Bambi as they are giant rabbits, eating many things, and leaving droppings like they were Christian Watson dropped passes.

Meteorologists at times seem as good as predicting amount of precipitation as Watson is at catching a pass. A recent article by two meteorologists (WI SJ 7/29/24) admitted as much when it said "Meteorologists would generally agree that summer is the most challenging time of year for making accurate rain forecasts." I like the use of the word accurate, which makes me think that they think other than summer their forecasts are accurate. Thunderstorm development is difficult to predict in the warmer summer months. When you hear isolated thunderstorms that means a 10% chance of 0.01" of rain, while scattered means a 30% to 50% chance. Widely scattered is 20%. The same article notes that if you have outdoor plans, and there is a 10-20% chance of rain you should have back up plans. Funny, until forecasts this year, I would have thought you were pretty safe at a 20% chance. I should know otherwise, because when we camp we are like Morton salt, it pours. 

As can be seen, extreme rainfall can have some consequences, other than flooded basements, or washed out roads. There is always some type of consequence. The saying, "oh, weather" certainly applies.